On the second day of conference tourneys, the Buffet gave to me...

Home Cooking in the Big South

and a champion is on the Ho-ri-zon...

Tonight's tournament games:

Horizon League First Round (at campus sites)

Loyola @ Detroit, 7pm ET (Detroit swept season series 2-0: 67-52 @ @65-54)

Wisconsin-Green Bay @ Youngstown St, 7pm ET (1-1: @Wis-GB 71-65; @YSU 77-47)

Wright State @ Butler, 7pm ET (Butler swept: 54-53; @63-62:

Illinois-Chicago @ Wisconsin-Milwaukee, 8pm ET (UW-M swept: 72-61; @73-71 OT)

Last night in...

the Big South tournament

Behind 22 points from Nick Barbour, 16 and 11 from Corey Law, and 11 from Shay Shine as High Point led for 38 minutes 49 second of their first round game against Gardner-Webb, en route to a 68-58 first round victory, giving the Panthers the "right" to face UNC-Asheville Wednesday in the Big South tournament. Tashan Newsome was up t the task, the only Runnin' Bulldog in double-figures, with 21 points to go with 9 rebounds, 3 assists and 3 steals.

The other first round matchup was a lot more in doubt, as Stan Okoye made a couple of free throws with 19 seconds left to lift Virginia Military Institute to a 55-53 win over Radford. Okowe had 16 points total ot go with 9 rebounds, Kieth Gabriel added 11 points and 5 steals, and Ron Burgs filled the stat sheet with 7 points, 4 rebounds, 4 assists, and 4 steals (impressively, this accounted for 9 of Radford's 15 turnovers). R.J. Price had 17 pts and 5 rebounds, but missed a key free-throw with Radford down 52-51

late, Jareal Smith had 11 and 6. VMI will next face Coastal Carolina on Wednesday in the quarterfinals.

2012 Horizon League Conference Tournament

Seriously, 2012 Butler is turning into the new Gonzaga. First, the Buffet just assumes they're a brand, and no matter who takes the court, they'll be competitive and a contender. Then, when we get badly fooled by this, we write them off, call it a rebuilding year and become fixated on the Drew family. Then, they surge, and sense that it's Butler, we're getting close to March, bet on them, then they pull the equivalent of losing by 20 to a BYU team with no front court due to sex, and get crushed by Valpo. Ladies & gentlemen, your 2012 Horizon League.

Remember when Cleveland St was the class of the conference? Well that ended on February 5th, following a 5 game (4 conference game) losing streak. The tide got stemmed a bit this last week, with the Vikings winning a pair of home games rather handily. Now, Cleveland St's season collapsed when senior guard D'Aundray Brown went out with a groin injury. Brown, who was expected to play Saturday against Wright St, but didn't, is expected to be back in time for conference tournament action - and the Vikings are a vastly different team with him (i.e. a team that can beat Vanderbilt) than without him (i.e. a team who loses to Wisconsin-Green Bay and 5 straight games). A guard heavy team, they featured a skilled three-pronged perimeter attack featuring Brown, Jeremy Montgomery, and Trevon Harmon. If Brown plays, this, in the Buffet's opinion, is the team to beat, but if he struggles to return, not even the double-bye can save them.

Well that worked out, didn't it? Bryce took over for Dr. Dad Homer D, and just like he did against Ole Miss 1998 - been right on the money ever since. Great work steering the Crusaders to a Horizon title, their first since joining the league in the 2007/08 season. Valparaiso seized control of the Horizon League when Butler struggled out of the gate and Cleveland State D'Aundray Browned their way into second. Now, that is not to suggest Valpo backed their way in. Brown played in both games against Cleveland St (swept by the Crusaders) and they lost just 4 times all year in conference and only once at home, where the conference tournament (after the first round) will be played. The season ending 12 point win over Butler was an indication that simply plugging Brown back into their lineup won't necessarily cut it for Cleveland State. Another item of note - Valpo is the only school to in the 2012 Horizon League to have beaten all other league members during the conference season. Ryan Broekhoff is your eye target - and was the Horizon League's leading rebounder.

But, what about that home loss? Well, that was to the true upset special in the Horizon (sorry, Butler - seed-wise it would be an upset, but you no longer qualify as Cinderella, no matter what seed you start at) - A team that always seemed on the verge of putting it together, they would respond to such faith with 2 game losing streaks (this happened on 5 separate occasions. Now it seems the Panthers are finally where we thought they woudl be - winning 4 straight to close the season (albeit, to a Brown-less Cleveland St, Fairfield in Milwaukee and bottom feeding UIC & Loyola Chicgao). The potential Butler/Wis-Mil second round matchup could be a neutral court classic, as the two teams split their regular season matchups. Oh, and Kaylon Williams is fun to watch, but, he just CANNOT shoot, and really, someone should let him knowhe really isn't a 3pt shooter...

The sneaky team in the standings is Detroit - while UW-M was having another 2 game losing streak fit and Butler was letting the Buffet down, Detroit quietly kept winning games, a 3 game win streak in late January, a 5-game win streak, culiminating in a 12 point BB win over James Madison and highlighted by a 4 point win at Hinkle - suddenly the Titans grabbed the Horizon 3rd seed. Detroit swept Butler, split with UW-Milwaukee, and, though swept by Valpo, lost by a total of 7 points in the 2 games. They are a competitive team. Their Achilles heel appears to be Cleveland State, who just beat a red hot Titan team, without, yes, theme developing, Brown, by 13. But, you always like having the most talented player in a tournament (or, the "Norris Cole Award") and Detroit, by all accounts, has it in sophomore guard (and coach's son) Ray McCallum.

Remember when Butler was supposed to fall of the earth without Hayward, but Shelvin Mack decided that was premature? Neither Chase Stigall nor Ronald Nored reached that same conclusion, as neither guy was able to seize control of a leading role (although,to be fair, Nored is the floor leader, averaging 5.3 assists per game and nearly a 2:1 A/TO ratio), as sophomores Khlye Marshall (who had varying degrees of effectiveness for last year's runners up) and Chrishawn Hopkins (who barely played) and junior center, Andrew Smith (who played but did not find the basket frequently) were relied upon to do the "scoring" - this is Butler, anything related to offense is always in quotations. Credit where it's due, however, Butler was moving in the right direction of improvement late in the season, winning 6 of 7 leading up to the dud they laid down at Valpo. Again, do you want to be the one to bet against Butler in a tournament setting? Actually, this year, the Buffet does.

The Buffet predicts: Can we hedge? Sure, it's our preview. If D'Aundray Brown is back and effective right away (he only has 2 games to get going), Cleveland St is the pick. If he isn't right, Valparaiso takes it. So, to take out the subjectivity - if Brown is in the lineup for Cleveland State's semifinal, the Buffet picks the Vikings, he he doesn't we Crusade.

Upset Special: It's true, we've talked ourselves into Detroit as a viable winner of this thing. Despite all those nice things we wrote about Wisconsin-Milwaukee.

Schedule:

Unless noted by the identifying network, conference tournament games can be found at: http://horizonleague.org/live/4702

Tuesday, February 28 - First Round (at campus sites) (all times ET)

Game 1: 10 Loyola (Chicago) @ 3 Detroit, 7pm

Game 2: 7 Wis-Green Bay @ 6 Youngstown State, 7pm

Game 3: 9 Illinois-Chicago @ 4 Wisconsin-Milwaukee, 8pm

Game 4: 8 Wright State @ 5 Butler, 7pm

Friday, March 2 - Second Round (Athletics-Recreation Center, Valparaiso, IN, capacity: 5,432)

Game 5: Game 1 Winner v. Game 2 Winner, 6pm

Game 6: Game 3 Winner v. Game 4 Winner, 8:30pm

Saturday, March 3 - Semifinals (Athletic-Recreation Center)

Game 7: 2 Cleveland State v. Game 5 winner, 6pm ET - ESPNU

Game 8: 1 Valparaiso v. Game 6 Winner, 8:30pm ET - ESPNU

Tuesday, March 6 - Championship Game (at Campus of highest remaining seed)

Game 7 Winner v. Game 8 Winner, 9pm ET, ESPN

Valparaiso Crusaders (21-10, 14-4)

Ken Pom: 144

ESPN BPI: 136

RPI: 89

SOS: 158

Best wins: Akron (58) 62-59; Cleveland St. x2 (78) 72-66; @59-41

Best losses: @Arizona (69) 64-73

Worst losses: @IPFW (280) 76-85; @IUPUI (212) 88-97; @Wright St. (217) 55-73; @UW-Green Bay (139) 60-75; Oakland (136) 80-82; UW-Milwaukee (115) 55-57; Ohio State (9) 47-80; @Youngstown St (174) 53-71

Players to watch

Ryan Broekhoff – 14.80 pts, 8.4 rebs, 2.3 assists, 1.3 steals

Kevin Van Wijk – 14.4 pts, 4.9 rebs

Richie Edwards - 9.4 pts, 3.1 rebs, 43% 3pts

Jay Harris – 9.1 pts, 2.0 rebs, 2.7 assists

Matt Kenney – 7.5 pts, 4.4 rebs, 2.4 assists, 1.1 steals

Who to foul: Who not to foul:

Van Wijk – 64% Broekhoff - 78%

Kenney – 65% Harris - 89%

Erik Buggs – 53% Edwards - 80%

Will Bogan - 75%

Ben Boggs – 81%

Cleveland State Vikings (22-9, 12-6)

Ken Pom: 76

ESPN BPI: 90

RPI: 78

SOS: 139

Best wins: @Vanderbilt (23) 71-58; Akron (58) 69-66; St. Bonaventure (100) 67-64

Best losses: @Valparaiso (89) 66-72

Worst losses: v.Hofstra (269) 53-63; Youngstown St. (174) 67-73; @Butler (119) 49-52; @UW-Milwaukee (115) 84-86

Players to watch

Trevon Harmon – 13.1 pts, 2.7 rebs, 2.1 assists, 1.4 steals

D’Aundray Brown – 10.8 pts, 4.5 rebs, 2.3 assists, 2.6 steals

Jeremy Montgomery – 10.8 pts, 2.4 rebs, 3.1 assists, 1.1 steals

Tim Kamczyc – 8.9 pts, 3.9 rebs, 2.3 assists, 1.1 steals, 45% 3pts

Anton Grady – 8.8 pts, 6.3 rebs, 1.5 blocks

Aaron Pogue - 5.8 pts, 4.3 rebs

Who to foul: Who not to foul:

Aaron Pogue - 64% Harmon - 82%

Brown - 78%

Montgomery - 78%

Kamczyc – 83%

Butler Bulldogs (18-13, 11-7)

Ken Pom: 128

ESPN BPI: 149

RPI: 119

SOS: 120

Best wins: Purdue (40) 67-65; @Cleveland St. (78) 52-49

Best losses:

Worst losses: @Ball State (253) 55-58; Detroit x2 (151) @65-76,61-65; @UW-Green Bay (139) 68-80; @Evansville (141) 77-80 ot; @UW-Milwaukee (115) 42-53; @Indiana (17) 59-75; @Gonzaga (18) 55-71; Louisville (21) 53-69

Players to watch

Andrew Smith – 10.6 pts, 5.2 rebs

Khyle Marshall – 9.6 pts, 3.9 rebs

Chrishawn Hopkins – 8.4 pts, 2.1 rebs, 1.6 assists

Ronald Nored – 7.9 pts, 4.5 rebs, 5.3 assists, 1.9 steals

Roosevelt Jones – 7.8 pts, 6.4 rebs, 1.6 assists, 1.0 steals

Chase Stigall – 5.5 pts, 2.1 rebs

Who to foul: Who not to foul:

Smith - 63% Hopkins - 83%

Marshall - 54% Jackson Aldridge - 80%

Jones – 47%

Stigall – 62%

Kameron Woods – 59%

Wisconsin-Milwaukee Panthers (19-12, 11-7)

Ken Pom: 133

ESPN BPI: 135

RPI: 115

SOS: 149

Best wins: Cleveland State (78) 86-84; @Valpo (89) 57-55

Best losses: Wisconsin (20) 54-60; Valpo (89) 52-55

Worst losses: @Wright St (217) 46-70; @Western Mich (189) 61-72; Youngstown St x2 (174) @66-68; 65-73; @Detroit (151) 57-58; @Butler (119) 50-54

Players to watch

Tony Meier – 11.3 pts, 4.8 rebs, 40% 3pts

Kaylon Williams – 11.0 pts, 5.0 rebs, 6.5 assists, 1.5 steals

James Haarsma - 10.5 pts, 5.5 rebs

Paris Gulley - 8.8 pts, 2.6 rebs, 43% 3pts

Ryan Allen - 8.4 pts, 5.1 rebs, 1.3 assists

Kyle Kelm - 7.8 ots, 4.5 rebs, 11. assists

Who to foul: Who not to foul:

Williams - 60% Evan Richard - 94% (17/18)

Haarsma - 65% Meier - 69%

Gulley - 68%

Allen - 62%

Kelm - 59%

Detroit Titans (18-13, 11-7)

Ken Pom: 135

ESPN BPI: 144

RPI: 151

SOS: 160

Best wins: UW Milwaukee (115) 58-57; Butler x2 (119) @65-61, 76-65

Best losses: @Alabama (25) 54-62; @Notre Dame (41) 53-59; Miss St (65) 75-80

Worst losses: @UIC (300) 59-63; Youngstown St (174) 61-64; v.Geo Wash (172) 73-86; @Bowling Green (142) 61-67

Players to watch

Ray McCallum – 15.1 pts, 4.4 rebs, 3.9 asts, 1.4 steals

Chase Simon – 13.7 pts, 4.5 rebs, 2.4 assists, 1.1 steals

Nick Minnerath – 12.0 pts, 4.0 rebs, 44% 3pts

Eli Holman – 11.0 pts, 7.0 rebs, 1.4 blks

Jason Calliste - 10.1 pts, 2.9 rebs, 1.6 assists, 1.1 steals

Doug Anderson – 9.2 pts, 5.2 rebs, 1.2 assists, 1.2 steals

LaMarcus Lowe - 6.4 pts, 4.9 rebs, 2.3 blks

Who to foul: Who not to foul:

Holman - 59% McCallum - 74%

Evan Bruinsma - 63% Simon - 76%

Jones – 47% Minnerath - 86%

Calliste - 75%

Anderson - 80%

Lowe - 77%

Other players to watch:

Kendrick Perry, Youngstown State, So - 16.8 pts, 3.2 rebs, 3.8 assists, 2.4 steals

Ben Averkamp - Loyola IL, Jr - 15.2 pts, 7.0 rebs, 2.6 rebs, 1.0 blks

Julius Mays, Wright State, Jr - 14.2 pts, 2.9 rebs, 2.5 asts, 1.4 stls, 42% 3pts

Alec Brown, Wis-Green Bay, So - 13.6 pts, 8.2 rebs, 3.1 blks

Blake Allen, Youngstown St, Jr - 13.2 pts, 3.4 rebs, 3.0 assists, 44% 3pts

Walt Gibler - Loyola IL, Sr - 12.5 pts, 5.8 rebs, 1.1 assists

Gary Talton, Illinois-Chi, Jr - 11.7 pts, 3.3 rebs, 3.3 asts

Keifer Sykes, Wis-Green Bay, Fr - 11.2 pts, 2.5 rebs, 3.3 assists

Damian Eagles, Youngstown St, Jr - 10.4 pts, 7.4 rebs, 3.9 blks

Brennan Cougill, Wis-Green Bay, Jr - 9.2 pts, 7.1 rebs, 2.1 assists, 40% 3pts

Horizon League Jack Leasure Award: Blake Allen, Youngstown - 87/199 - 44%

Horizon League Player of the Year: Ryan Broekhoff, Valparaiso

Horizon League Coach of the Year: Bryce Drew, Valpariso

Horizon League Newcomer of the Year: Julius Mays, Wright State (NC State transfer)

Horizon League Defensive Player of the Year: Ronald Nored, Butler

First-Team All Horizon:

(not one senior, bright future in the Horizon League)

Ryan Broekhoff, F, Jr., Valparaiso

Ray McCallum, G, So, Detroit

Kendrick Perry, G, So, Youngstown State

Kevin Van Wijk, Jr, F, Valparaiso

Alec Brown, So, C, Wisconsin-GB

Al'Lonzo Coleman, F, Sr., Presbyterian

Second-Team All Horizon:

Kaylon Williams, G, Sr, Wisconsin-Milwaukee

Trevon Harmon, G, Sr , Cleveland State

Julius Mays, G, Jr, Wright State

Ben Averkamp, F, Jr, Loyola (Chicago)

Ronald Nored, G, Sr. Butler

Morels from the Horizon

Jake Diebler, Valpo assistant & former Crusader player, is the brother of former Ohio St G Jon Diebler.

Former Illinois standout, Roger Powell Jr. is a member of Bryce Drew's staff at Valpo

Wis-Milwaukee Junior guard (out with wrist injury) Ja'Rob McCallum has a great name and is the nephew of Detroit head coach, Ray McCallum and the cousin of all-Horizon performer, also Ray.

Wis-Milwaukee senior guard, Ryan Allen, is the younger brother of Memphis Grizzlie, Tony Allen

Wis-Milwaukee junior Christian Wolf is the nephew of former NBA player, Joe Wolf.

Wis-Milwaukee roster features brothers Lonnie and Shaquille Boga, from St. Louis, Missouri

2009-10 Horizon League 6th Man of the Year, Sr Walt Gibler is NOT related to former Tanner neighbor and DJ's best friend, Kimmy Gibler.

Former All-American, and Univ of Arizona guard, Jason Gardner, is an assistant at Loyola Chicago.

Former Kent State mad bomber and brother of NFLer Antonio Gates - Armon is an assistant at Loyola

Detroit Sr Guard, Chase Simon, is the nephew of former NBA player, Randy Browm.

Currently redshirting for the Titans, after transferring from Western Michigan, is 6'6 Juwan Howard, Jr. Yes, that Juwan Howard.

Cleveland St Fr Forward Anton Grady is the much taller nephew of NBA player Earl Boykins

Jeremy Montgomery, Sr G at CSU, is the cousin of Washington Wizard numskull JaVale McGee and brother of junior Jonathan Montgomery at Chicago State

Non-Tournament Game of the Night:

Weber State Wildcats (14-1 Big Sky) at Montana Grizzlies (14-1), 9pm ET - Altitude Network

Winner take all, literally in this Big Sky matchup - the conference whittles itself down to 6 teams for the conference tournament, and the top seed hosts it - and this game is for all those marbles. Montana enters the game on a 11-game winning streak, looking for its first regular season title since 2000. Weber last won the Big Sky 2010, only to see this Montana team upset the Wildcats in the conference tournament championship game. Weber enters this game on a huge tear of their own, 7 straight and 17 of 18. Weber St defeated Montana in Ogden (in Weber County, Utah) on January 14, 80-64, Montana's only loss in the last 17 games. In that game, Damian Lillard (surprise, surprise) led the Wildcats with 21 points, 5 rebounds and 4 assists, Scott Bamforth added 15, 3 and 3 of his own and the Grizzlies, who just struggled out of the gate, were led by Will Cherry and his 15 points and 6 rebounds and Mathias Ward, and his 8 pts and 12 boards. The Buffet will devise a way for it to watch this one.

In the Waiting Line...

Duke @ Wake Forest - Duke isn't waiting for anything, but with Ohio St.'s loss, a chance to be as secure as Kentucky & Syracuse are in the top line is out there. This won't secure you, but it sure can cost you a #1 seed. You know what else can, winning more games that look like Saturday's Virginia Tech game, when Kansas and Michigan are desperate to knock you to the #2 line.

Xaiver @ Saint Louis - An interesting Waiting Line game - Saint Louis was as secure as it gets, then they lost to a 6-23 Rhode Island team, and suddenly you take another glance at the Billikens profile and aren't so sure. Their BPI and RPI rankings are strong, suggested good scheduling and good play - but their top win is now just a top 100, St Joseph's (51) and from their wins over Washington, @Xavier, and Dayton are all that remain. Nice wins against Waiting Liners..., but 0 wins against "will be" tournament teams. Their losses aren't bad - Loyola Marymount has a low RPI, but been strong, especially of late. @UMass was a bit of a blow out, but still UMass is not gimme, Both games @Dayton and @New Mexico were tough, well-played games, as was their home loss to Temple. St. Louis finishes up with Duquesne before starting the tornament. St. Louis would be well served to win this game at home, sweeping Xavier and dispelling any thoughts that they don't belong. A number 9 on the pre-weekend Buffetology, they probably didn't fall far, after all their company was Harvard (lost to Penn), California (lost to Colorado), UConn (good loss at Syracuse probably propels the Huskies), Miss St (5 game losing streak and 3rd straight double-digit loss), and West Virginia (lost to a team essentially playing undergrads from the rec league due to suspension). Nonetheless, 9 seed with bad losses = moving in the wrong direction. St. Louis in a conference will less opportunities for wins that'll put you back on good footing, needs to win the games against teams like Xavier.

Thing is, Xavier needs this (and any win) as well. We've profile Xavier at length, and they did what they needed to do on Saturday, but it wasn't altogether pretty, and while the Buffet isn't concerned beauty contest caliber wins in and of themselves, ugly wins against bad teams can mean losses against good ones. Xavier's best work was almost 3 months ago now, and the last time they beat a real tournament at-large contender was St. Joseph's on Jan 18, and the last time they beat a team in the top 50 of RPI was Purdue on December 3. A loss here, really puts their bid worthiness in doubt, and will require much work in the tournament.

Kansas St @ Texas A&M - Kansas State is safe, but they sure do like to give away seeding goodwill collected with good wins. The loss to the Cyclones wasn't bad, Iowa State sits 31 in the RPI, but it was at home and really stopped the momentum of their two huge road wins. That said, they have two huge road wins which can never be taken away. A 7 seed in the latest Buffetology, that may have been under seeding given their Baylor/Missouri (sweep) wins. They are likely to stay put in that 7 slot, and really, even losing three straight to close the season, they'll still get a bid, it just won't look as pretty as the one they'd get if they TCOB and make some noise in the B12 tournament.

Connecticut @ Providence - UConn has put themselves back on the right track and that gritty performance on Saturday night against Syracuse might have been as good as a win for a team in the 8-9 range on the Bracket. Against PC, they just need to keep it up, and not suffer a letdown like the one they threatened to suffer against Villanova.

DePaul @ West Virginia: West Virginia is really complicating things for themselves. Ugly losses, ugly wins (with a blow out of Pittsburgh sandwiched in) and then losing at home to Marquette with several players for the Golden Eagles suspended for part of the game just puts the Mountaineers headed in the wrong direction. The irony is a terrible no-call at the Carrier Dome cost WVU what would have likely been a tournament clinching win. Now, many people will say when you lose isn't AS important as it used to be, but you can't convince the Buffet that had WVU dropped a home game to Marquette in a similar fashion in November, the immediate recall of "hey, isn't that when 1/2 of Marquette was suspended" would have been there. Just wouldn't. This game should be a gimme. Nothing has been a gimme for WVU. A 10 seed on Friday evening's Buffetology (before the Marquette game), they are probably staring more likely at a 10 or 11, and losing to DePaul would have them staring at MSG twice, once for the BET and once as their new postseason tournament reward in the NIT

Michigan St @ Indiana, 7pm ET, ESPN - There's no Waiting Line... here, both teams are sailing into the tournament, and now, Michigan State, who has already clinched a share of the B10 title, can go outright, and pretty much nose ahead of Duke & Kansas for #1 seed, number 3 headed into the tournaments (if they aren't there already, Buffetology hasn't been updated since Friday, and almost blowing a home game to Virginia Tech does not keep you on solid ground Blue Devils). Michigan State, a 1 seed in the latest Buffetology, will be looking for that to get written (typed?) in pen, not pencil.

Indiana, a 6 seed in the last Bracket, went into Minnesota and blew the doors off them, and with FSU and Notre Dame taking bad losses, will be looking to go from inching themselves up the bracket ladder to rocket propelling with what would be their second third big time win of the year (not to be confused with good win, they have plenty of those, but this would be their third against top 10 teams in the RPI, second against top 5 - some Waiting Liners... have ZERO against the top 50.

Minnesota @ Wisconsin, 8pm ET BTN - Minnesota is pretty much dead to rights - a 5 game losing streak (albeit all against top B10 competition) and they've lost 7 of 9 overall (thank you Nebraska for joining the B10 and gracias Illinois for thinking the season ended on February) - of course, when your conference includes 5 teams with top 20 RPIs, there's always a chance to put yourself back in the Waiting Line... but that assume as dramatic turnaround in quality of play, and while the Buffet has always respected Tubby Smith much more than, say, Lexington, Kentucky has - I'm not sure he's got the magic to finally overcome Trevor Mbakwe's knee injury and turn around a pretty lifeless ballclub.

Wisconsin is on the rise. A 5 seed last Friday in Buffetology, you don't stay at 5 when you beat the #6 overall team in an S-curve (and top 10 RPI team), Wisconsin will benefit nicely from Florida's lifeless efforts, Temple's loss, Michigan's loss, etc - and propel themselves upward. Probably a 4 when all is said and done, if Ohio St was a sign, a 3, or even a 2, if the early season Badgers are back and yesterday was a prelude to a B10 tourney title...

UCF @ Memphis, 9pm ET - Classic Waiting Line... game between a conference leader with a so-so profile but a stranglehold on the regular season crowd and true back of the pack Waiting Line... squad. Memphis has righted themselves after their goofy home loss to UTEP. They are all but assured of a tournament bid, and one more nice Top 100 win, especially compared against 2012's potential field should do it (it would also clinch them nothing less than a share of the reg season C-USA crown).

UCF meanwhile has a LOT of work to, and potentially not enough to do it. They did beat Memphis the first time, which means revenge may be on the Tigers mind, outside of their UConn win, they have a fairly empty profile (Marshall, who we all saw on Saturday was an RPI fraud) and some bad losses UL-Lafayette, Tulsa, and then last weeks 9 point loss at Rice when their profile needed boosting not deflating. This Memphis road game is almost necessary, because they are probably 2 good wins from being an at-large team, and there are only 2 true good wins (outside of themselves) in the C-USA, and they won't be able to play both Memphis and Southern Miss before the tourney final, no matter what seed they end up at.

Ole Miss at Arkansas, 7pm, ESPU - Once upon a time, both teams had the records and RPIs to make this a waiting line game, but Ole Miss lost 5 of 7, and wasn't particularly competitive in any of them (before crushing a grassroots LSU campaign on Saturday), and Arkansas dropped 5 of 6 of their own before winning at Auburn on Saturday. Neither team is going at large - Miss, we guess, has the only "shot" but it would require a whole lot of winning, an amount that the tournament final may come too soon for them to get enough Ws.

Florida @ Vanderbilt, 9pm ET, ESPN - Florida, a 4 seed last Saturday, after they seemed to put their blowout road loss at Kentucky and their weird allergic reaction to Tennessee in their rear view, put up an absolute dud at Georgia. Losing top reserver Will Yeguete really complicates matters, as Florida, yes a lock for the tournament, but now their seeding will be evaluated on how they look without their co-leading rebounder - and when your coach is questioning whether his team will ever play with passion again, and you lose your high-energy, interior defending reserve - that's not the formula you're looking for.

Vandy was game,but ultimately didn't have enough in the tank to win in Lexington. Who does? This is a solid Commodore outfit who took a pre-brawl Xavier team to OT, followed by a tough OT loss at Louisville, blew out Marquette in Milwaukee, took out Alabama by 10 in Tuscaloosa, even let 2012 upstart Middle Tennesse St know, they were quite ready for prime time. They'll need a bit more consistentcy, as they're a mere 4-4 over their last 8. But as a current 6 seed (and the loss to UK shouldn't be too painful to their seeding), they've got an opportunity to move up with a Florida win.