Sunday, February 26, 2012

BUFFET WEEKEND PREVIEW (Part III - Sunday)


And no Buffet feast weekend would be complete without a little dessert. Been a very interesting weekend ... great games (Kansas/Missouri, UConn/Syracuse), great performances (Thomas Robinson, Anthony Davis) and Nebraska. So without further ado, it's Sunday. Sunday. Sunday...

Sunday, February 26

America East
All 9 teams qualify.

Binghamton (1-27, 1-14, 344) @ New Hampshire (12-15, 6-9, 294)

Well, at least Binghamton isn't winless anymore, right? The Bearcats will open the AmEast tournament as the 9 seed against 8 seeded UMBC.

UNH is in deadlock with Maine for the 6th seed. Having been swept this season by Maine, they need to beat Binghamton and then see Maine fall to Stony Brook in order to capture the 6 seed and face Boston U in the quarterfinals. If they lose or BU wins, they will fall to the 7 seed and face either Vermont (if Stony Brook wins today) or Stony Brook (if Maine wins today).

Speaking of...

Maine (12-15, 6-9, 287) @ Stony Brook (19-8, 13-2, 153)
You now know Maine's contingencies. Win and they are the 6 seed, lose and see UNH lose, and they are the 6 seed - otherwise, they are the 7 seed.

Since joining D1 basketball in 2002, Stony Brook, endured some rough seasons. Then, in 2005-06, they hired former GW assistant, Steve Pikiell, has really been a steadily improving success story. In just 4 year, Pikiell has the Seawolves at 22-10 and won the America East regular season crown. Today, he goes for his second, as Stony Brook will win the conference outright with a win, head into Hartford and the conference tournament looking for their first ever NCAA tournament berth.

Atlantic Coast Conference

Florida State (19-8, 10-3, 22) @ Miami FL (16-10, 7-6, 54)

Oh how much does Florida St regret that February 8th game in Boston. The 8-20, 235th ranked Eagles? The Seminoles were in prime position to claim a share of the ACC title (UNC & Duke still face one another, which is something you just learned only if you don't currently subscribe to ESPN). Now, they will likely do no better than sharing second (Duke faces Wake and UNC has Maryland before the showdown). A nice season, for sure, but winning the ACC in a year when Duke and UNC aren't down is quite an achievement. Instead, they'll likely either be the 2 seed (if they end up tied with UNC) or the 3 seed (if they end up tied with Duke or lose 1 more game) going to Atlanta for the tournament. The 'Noles are another safe team, currently a 5 seed (#17 overall) in the latest Buffetology. With Miami, Virginia and an entire ACC tournament ahead (plus resume standout wins over UNC and Duke) this is a seed that can be improved upon fairly significantly and the Buffet believes the furthest they could drop would be a 7 (if they were to lose 4 straight to close the season), but really are pretty secure where they are. Only Kansas St, Indiana and MAYBE Vanderbilt are the only teams that really threaten to make tournament runs that could really raise their seeding profile.

Big East Conference
A pair of Bubble game in the Big East today - one is can play out as a Bubble elimination, although with games left on the schedule and entire tournaments to unfold, elimination games really don't happen until the 12 (14) days of conference tourneys
Pittsburgh (15-13, 4-11, 98) @ Louisville (21-7, 9-6, 21)

The Buffet is very sympathetic to the fact that Pittsburgh had a rough go without Tra Woodall. They were 6-1 until he went down, 5-8 while he was hurt (tough to really count the Notre Dame game or the first Louisville matchup as him being "there" as he clearly wasn't). But since he's been back and playing 30+ minutes, the Panthers are still only 4-4, having lost 4 straight games (to all tournament potential teams, yes, but they were only really competitive for 40 minutes in the Seton Hall tilt). The Buffet doesn't see much of a precription to get them in the tournament. They certainly have to win out and get to 7-11 in conference. Then a BE final appearance will be needed, and then with at least 3-4 more big wins on their resume and momentum of a great NYC weekend might MIGHT have them in position to make the tournament. They'd then have 20-21 wins, at least 2 top 25 wins (probably 3, depending on how the brackets shake out) and 4-5 top 50 wins. That could do it. But that's asking for a complete team makeover starting in just a few hours. For now, they should focus on more immediate goals - like winning out and avoiding the 15 seed and a first round matchup with the same WVU team that pounded them by 18.

Louisville is in a much different position, with lots of top 50 wins dotting their resume (6 overall, 2 versus the top 25 (Memphis & Vandy) and 4 versus top 50 (UConn, Long Beach, Seton Hall and WVU). They are a 4 seed (18 overall), like Florida State, looking to make a jump. Michigan lost at home, although, it's not yet clear to the Buffet if it was a seed sacrificing loss or not. With a tournament minded USF and likely BE champ Syracuse ahead of them on the schedule, the chance to get into the 3 is there (obviously the BET is a seed making factory) before the postseason even begins.

Cincinnati (20-8, 10-5 ,74) @ South Florida (17-11, 10-5, 50)

You look at Cincinnati's record (not in brawls, in brawls they are 0-1), 20 wins, double-digit BE wins and you think tourney lock. But then you see that RPI number, and you think, hmmmm, maybe there's something that record isn't telling us. Well, it's not telling you about a 110th ranked SOS that is 100% propped up by the Big East schedule that they couldn't avoid. Out of conference, they played the 322nd ranked schedule - starring such stalwarts as Alabama St, Jacksonville State, Northwestern St, Miami OH, Radford, UA Pine Bluff, and Chicago St. Oh, did I forget to mention Presbyterian - whom they LOST to. They got zero wins of note OOC (losing to Marshall and Xavier), and really were fortunate to avoid a loss against Oklahoma. Then the BE slate has been good to them - wins over Notre Dame, @Georgetown, @Connecticut, and 3 straight including Seton Hall and Louisville, and suddenly Cincy is shining up an ugly resume. They are currently a 12 seed in Buffetology (45 overall), but they would be wise to keep winning, or at least beat USF and Villanova if they are not up to the task versus Marquette, because if they leave the door open to committee interpretation, their non-conference body of work wouldn't compare favorably against a division II team.

Big Ten Conference

Wisconsin (20-8, 9-6, 28) @ Ohio St (23-5, 11-4, 8)
It's not really a free fall. Wisconsin opened the season punishing weak opponents, and looking dominant in the process, they even played a great came in Carolina that they fell short in 60-57. A second loss to Marquette was nothing to be alarmed off, and especially when they won their next 6 straight including an 11 point win over UNL. But then they lost their way, lost 3 straight including a home game to Iowa (and, yes, as Buffet reader Gregory Ott points out, Iowa is improving, but you still don't lose to them at home, just yet) - Jordan Taylor didn't seem to be raising his game, and questions about Wisconsin lingered. Just long enough for them to put another 6 game streak together, beating Purdue in Indiana, Northwestern & Indiana in the process. But the schedule got tougher, and they were not up to the task agaisnt Ohio State, Michigan St, or even that pesky Iowa team in Des Moines, and as such the light on their star powered light bulb is dimming. Today can restore that shine. Wisconsin is currently a 5 seed (#20 overall), but in the top rated conference in the country, there are all kinds of opportunities to move up. After Ohio St, they face Minnesota and Illinois at home, two teams that are outside the top 50, but both fighting for a tournament berth, and then the BIG tournament. Wisconsin, at 20, is teetering on the edge of a 6 seed, but the opportunities to get into the 4 line are there. At 9-6, they are either looking at being one game back of Michigan & Ohio State in third or falling into a 2 (and potential three-way tie with Purdue & Indiana for 4th.

Ohio State isn't thinking about holding their spot or even 4 lines ... they are thinking about #1 seeds, and winning the Big 10. A win keeps pace with Michigan St, with only a road game in Evanston, keeping them from the Big 10 championship showdown with the Spartans. It's hard to imagine the #1 overall conference not placing a team on the 1 line, so getting a share of the reg season crown will be big, because if you can pull the daily double (reg and tourney title), a one season is all but guaranteed. Currently Ohio State is holding a 2 seed, #6 overall.

Iowa (15-13, 7-8, 125) @ Illinois (16-12, 5-10, 75)

What a job done in February by former Siena hc Fran McCaffrey. The man that brought us Alex Franklin, Ronald Moore, Edwin Ubiles, Ryan Rossiter, Clarence Jackson, Kyle Downey and of course, seldom used, but awesomely name reserve guard, Just-in'love Smith - has really made life difficult on the top half of the Big 10 - wins at Wisconsin, over Michigan, versus Indiana and most recently finishing the season sweep over Wisconsin, has put Iowa back on the national radar. They will not be getting an at large, that ranking plus losses to Campbell, Clemson, Nebraska (Red Alert, indeed) and Penn State are too much to overcome (combined with no out of conference wins of any note (Drake? Boise State?). But, this is a message that the Saints magic may have come with McCaffrey from Siena. Also, with the tournament looming, they've got a reasonable shot at being anywhere from 4th to 9th, and really, the Big 10 bubble team would be well served to avoid this rising Iowa team at all costs.

Speaking of Big 10 bubble teams - hello Illinois. From a 9 seed, to a play-in team, to
barely being considered, 2012 has been a BAD year for the Illini. EXCEPT, it includes wins over Ohio State & Michigan St. So what gives? Illinois has those 2 wins plus a win over Gonzaga and in Evanston, but need a dramatic turnaround to get themselves back into tourney discussion. Winning out could do it, beating Michigan & Wisconsin would give them wins over all 4 of the Big 10's top teams, and start to erase memories of their current 6 game losing streak (9 of 10 overall) - but, even so, at least 2 Big 10 tourney wins (if not 3) is required for the Buffet to consider getting them out of the Waiting Line... in a good way. Illinois was actually a mistaken omission from Buffetology, although they simply would have been a in the last 8 considered, sitting just ahead of LSU, so call them 67A.

Indiana (21-7, 8-7, 17) @ Minnesota (17-11, 5-10, 80)

Indiana was on a meteoric rise - undefeated, great win over Kentucky, backed up by a nice win over Notre Dame. Losing in East Lansing is nothing to be ashamed of, especially when you bounce back with a pair of home wins over Ohio State & Michigan. But then fatigue may have set in, losing a home game to these Gophers, getting torched in Columbus and then falling at Nebraska (if the Buffet is more down on a team than they are Nebraska, we haven't found said team). Of late, they have been solid but not great, a pair of road losses to the top of B10 (Wisconsin & Michigan) sprinkled around a nice win at Purdue, and a pair of home wins over Illinois & Northwestern, led to the road loss at Iowa last Saturday. All in all, a good resume, projecting them as a 6 seed currently (21 overall), with room to grow. Once the dust settles, and Iowa really demonstrates that the Hoosiers loss to them shouldn't be considered a bad loss, and a nice run to close the season (Minnesota, Michigan St, Purdue) could really vault Indiana higher leading into the B10 tournament. Currently 6th in conference because of their up and down run of late, they have 3 games against some good teams, which means they could plummet, or really do some seeding (and in the same vein, resume boosting) damage.

Minnesota lost Trevor Mbakwe just as things were starting to get good for Tubby's crew. 6-0 heading into the Dayton game, Mbakwe went down with 17 minutes left and even though school bounced back to beat Virginia Tech 3 days later, the Mbakwe absence really manifested itself in B10 play - Minnesota lost their first 4 games, 3 of them were by a total of 16 points and 2OTs (which was a 9 point 2Ot loss) to Michigan, Illinois, Iowa & Purdue. Then they ran off 3 straight, including Indiana and Northwestern - before a four game stretch of .500 ball was just a perlude to their current 4 game losing streak, which although only one of which was a bad loss (Iowa, a theme is developing here) but it's a bad streak at the wrong time, and has Minnesota at the wrong end of the waiting line, currently among the second 4 out, #57 overall.

Metro Atlantic Athletic Conference
Final day of action in the MAAC before our attention turns to the MassMutual Center in Springfield, Massachusetts next Friday. Much has already been decided, but with a potential Waiting Liner.. in their midst, let's take a look:

Fairfield (17-12, 12-5, 121) @ Rider (12-18, 9-8, 204)
Fairfield is currently locked in a 3 way tie for second, but by virtue of an unfavorable tiebreaker situation (both Manhattan & Loyola own a win over Iona, whereas Fairfield was swept), today they are playing for 3rd. Win and they finish 3rd, lose and they finish 4th.

Rider has already clinched the #5 seed - if they win today, they will see this same Fairfield team again next Saturday. If they lose, they will face the loser of Loyola (MD) and Manhattan.

Niagara (13-17, 8-9, 200) @ Marist (12-17, 6-11, 229)
Niagara will finish 6 with a win (or Siena loss) and finish 7th if they lose AND Siena wins (they own the tiebreaker).

Marist has already been locked into the 8th seed, and will face Saint Peter's in the MAAC play in game next Friday, March 2.

Canisius (5-23, 1-16, 328) @ Siena (7-10, 12-16, 230)
Canisius is the 10th and final seed in the MAAC, and they will face either Niagara or Siena next Friday night.

Speaking of the Saints, the 2012 "March on"s will only do so in the MAAC tournament (or, by some miracle, after winning the MAAC tourney, then yes, in the NCAAs) - the will do it as a 6 seed with either a win AND Niagara loss, and will do it as a 7th, and against this same Canisius team, with either a loss OR a Niagara win (Niagara owns the tiebreaker)

Loyola (Maryland) (20-8, 12-5, 99) @ Manhattan (20-10, 12-5, 137)
The MAAC game of the day - winner gets the #2 seed, loser could fall all the way to 4th. Loyola has suffered some questionable losses given where they seemed to be heading.

The winner is the #2 seed.
The loser is the #3 seed if Fairfield also loses
The loser is the #4 seed if Fairfield wins

St. Peter's (5-24, 4-13, 303) @ Iona (23-6, 14-3, 37)
St. Peter's will be the 9 seed, and face Marist next Friday for the right to play this Iona team once again.

Iona is an interesting case, coming into the weekend, they sat as a 13 seed, #59 overall, just behind Drexel, and the last of the at-larges. But Middle Tennessee lost, Colorado St lost, and suddenly Iona's star is rising. Can they get an at-large? Probably only if they face Loyola Md in the final, other games will be RPI (and other computer rankings) poison. But they have wins over Maryland (a fringe bubble team), Saint Joseph's (a major Waiting Line... team), Nevada (fringe bubble, and likely autobid winner), as well as a real tough loss but a sweet opening loss in Puerto Rico, 90-91, to Purdue. This is a fun team to watch, with Scotty Machado & Mike Glover - but they don't play a ton of defense, which could be problematic in a conference tournament with a target on their back. Win out to the final, play Loyola in said final, and Iona could be good to go regardless.

Mid-American Conference
The MAC still has a week of action left, although Akron seems to be pretty locked in as #1 (up 3 with 3 to go - although their next two are against the only teams with a mathematical chance at the top seed (Ohio & Buffalo).

Northern Illinois (3-23, 2-11, 338) @ Central Michigan (8-19, 3-10, 282)
Dan Majerle, where are you? The battle for the bottom seed. CMU needs to win this game to put themselves 2 games clear of last place and avoid a season sweep (and a lost tiebreaker) at the hand of the Nolukies.

Akron (20-8, 12-1, 60) @ Ohio (22-6, 9-4, 76)
Pivotal game in the standings, as well as whatever slim at-large hopes they have - their road win to open the season on November 9th is still their season's signature win. Adding to it only a win @Marshall (thanks a lot Memphis, love, the Akron Zips) and an OT home loss to VCU. But they're 12-1 in conference, and pretty much ran through the MAC. So there's "hope" - but the BB loss to Oral Roberts was probably the nail in that coffin. Get to the conference final, hope it is against either Ohio or Buffalo (otherwise a loss would be devastating for 2 reasons - auto & at-large crushed). Akron is currently buried behind a strong crop of mid-major autos as a 14 seed (69 overall).

Pacific 12 Conference
Can the Pac-12 become a multi-bid league? Washington & Arizona are doing their part, for the most part - what about the top rated team, coming into today.

California (23-6, 13-3, 33) @ Colorado (18-9, 10-5, 83)
With 2 games to play, Cal is tied with Washington (but holds the tiebreaker) and 2 games clear of Arizona, Oregon & Colorado in the loss column. They currently sit as a 9 seed on the latest bracket - but it is a precarious 9 (36th overall). Colorado wouldn't be a bad loss, but it would further expose a fairly flawed team, who has been decent on the road, but it would do them well to add just their 7th top 100 win of the year. It's likely that depending on final bracket, there is only a chance for 1 more quality win before the P12 final, so Cal just needs to keep winning. If they lose 3 straight or 2 of 3, they may end up on the wrong side of the Waiting Line... and they probably top out as a potential 7 or 8. Win their last two, and they're obviously safely in, but also the P12 regular season co-champ (at worst) and clinch the top seed in the P12 tournament.

Colorado flirted BRIEFLY, with the Waiting Line..., that's over. But a shot at the P12 regular season championship with 2 straight wins and a shocking Cal upset by Stanford. Wins over Washington, Arizona & Oregon are impressive - but there's just nothing in the cupboard (but, really, more than Oregon) to counterbalance a string of bad losses.

Oregon (19-8, 10-5, 55) @ Oregon State (15-12, 5-10, 147)
The Civil War comes when Oregon is fighting hard to get into tournament consideration. Chances are their resume is just too empty - just 2 top 100 wins (Arizona & Washington), and only this game, Colorado & Utah to go before the tournament. They currently sit at 54, the 2nd team out - but that was more a function of everyone else around them - and already, St. Joe's, Northwestern, and USF have pushed ahead of them - their resume is empty, and they need to win win and win.
At 10-5, with 3 to go, they've got an outside shot at the top seed (unlikely).

Oregon State is better than their record and RPI, and Jared Cunningham is a stud. But, their record doesn't improve because the Buffet deems them better than it, so at 5-10, they are currently 9th in the P12, with a strong shot at moving up and MAYBE making some noise (like the noise they made versus California, Texas & Oregon already). Mostly, they'll just be the team to send P12 Waiting Liners... to the NIT.

Sun Belt Conference
Only 11 teams can qualify for the Sun Belt tournament - due to Louisiana-Monroe failing to meet the NCAA's Academic Progress Rate requirements.

North Texas (16-12, 9-6, 205) @ Denver (20-8, 10-5, 91)
North Texas is gunning to raise their seeding profile in next week's tournament, and Denver is trying to hold on to their 3 seed.

It goes like this:
Denver wins - they are the 3 seed and North Texas will be the 5.

Denver loses, a three-way tie ensues. A mini-conference is formed (between Denver, North Texas & UL-Lafayette, who all played each other 3 times), and the seeding would go like this:

#3: UL-Lafayette: 3-1
#4: North Texas: 2-2
#5: Denver: 1-3

Your weekend is complete ... enjoy the Sunday hoops. Be back tomorrow with the kick off of the XII Days of Conference tourneys - look for a new Buffetology to come on Tuesday morning.


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