Friday, February 24, 2012

BUFFET WEEKEND PREVIEW (Part I - Friday)

Bet you didn't know this ... the 12 days of Conference tourneys becomes 14 days this year ... as we get started with the Big South come Monday... which means the chefs in the kitchen are cooking, the plates are being stacked, the waitstaff is preparing for your drink orders, and the Buffet getting read to roll into high gears.

Previews.
Waiting Lines.
Witty, commentary.
Misfiring jokes.
And of course, the best -Ologist in the business.

One thing that won't change? The rhyme that kicks off, I mean, if the Big XII conference has only 10 teams, but is still the Big XII, why do our addition skills have to be any better?

Now, the Waiting Line... is heating up and conference regular season races are winding down, so let's take a look at what's on tap for the weekend...

Friday, February 24th
Atlantic Sun
North Florida (15-15, 9-8, 177) @ Jacksonville (8-20, 6-11, 259) - ESPN3
The top 10 teams advance to the Atlantic Sun tournament. North Florida will be one of those 10, just a matter if they are the #4 or #5 seed. Having been swept by East Tenn St, they need to win this one and then have ETSU fall to Fla Gulf Coast.

Jacksonville on the other hand is not in nearly as good of shape, at 6-11, they are tied for the 8th final spot in the A-Sun tourney. But, all of a sudden, the Dolphins starting streaking. A win over co-8 seed Stetson on Feb 6, a loss to SC Upstate was then followed with 3 straight wins, including a big upset of A-Sun #2 Mercer. Based on the tie-breaking procedures, a win tonight by Jacksonville in their final A-Sun game, and they're in. A loss, and we wait for Stetson's road game tomorrow at SC Upstate and shake it out from there. Both teams were swept by Lipscomb, so there's only room for one.

Big East
Marquette (23-5, 12-3, 8) @ West Virginia (17-11, 7-8, 44) @ 9:oopm ET, ESPN
Marquette is safely in this tournament, currently projecting as a 3 seed in the latest Buffetology. What they are seeking is the double bye. They are currently two games up on Georgetown, Cincy & South Florida. If we're all honest with ourselves, there's USF isn't going to end the BE season with only 5 conference losses. Now Georgetown and/or Cincy might. Marquette finishes with this game, then are at Cincinnati & close at home versus Georgetown. Chances are neither Cincy nor G'town sweep their final 3 games. But, Marquette's double-bye life could get interesting if they drop ths one.

West Virginia, on the hand is not in nearly as safe a position. They are currently a 10 seed, and falling, on the heels of a streak that has seen them drop 3 out of 4 and 6 out of 8. The bleeding most stop, and now. After this, they get DePaul at home, followed by a road game at a sure to be Waiting Line desperate South Florida team. Going into the BE tournament, without needing some sort of run, WVU would be best served to win all 3, but at minimum must win the next 2 if they drop this game to Marquette. If they win, they might have done enough, but with a pair of ugly losses on their resume (Kent St (1o5 rpi) and @St. John's (138)) to go with that losing streak, they will be a question mark if they were to get beat up by USF.

Horizon League
Butler (18-12, 11-6, 117) @ Valparaiso (20-10, 13-4, 96), 7:00 pm ET, ESPNU
Valpo has clinched the regular season Horizon League title, and therefore will host the semifinals (and the championship game, if they advance to it - highest remaining seed hosts in Horizon).

Butler, on the other hand, has much to play for. For one, this is an opportunity for a statement game. For all the talk of how far the 2-time national championship runner-up have fallen, Butler has gotten hot when it counted - winning 5 straight and 6 of 7 overall. And, the Buffet is psyched to become the 3,485th place to write the phrase "do you want to bet against Butler in a tournament environment" (I guess, since we already wrote a variation of that once, we were probably the 1,854th place. But, truthfully you don't - and you'll want to less if Butler can go into the Crusaders' home and beat them on the eve of the conference tournament. Speaking of conference tournament, all 10 teams qualify, but the top 2 seeds automatically advance to the semifinals. Butler gets there with a win tonight. A loss, and they'll need a Cleveland State loss, and a Detroit loss over the weekend. And, mathematically, losing to Valpo and a whole string of results follows, Butler could drop all the way to a 5 seed (if they lose, and Detroit and Wiscon-Milwaukee both win).

Ivy League
Princeton (15-10, 7-2, 98) @ Harvard (23-3, 9-1, 38), 7:00p ET

Revenge Week (TM - hey it's a plausible as a planned week as "Rivalry Week" which is essentially, the WWL asking "hey, when do Duke/UNC play? Cool, we're going to call all games that week a part of "Rivalry Week") continued as Harvard hosts the one school who was able to give them an Ivy League blemish to date, this game is on the eve of Harvard's game versus the 2nd place team, Penn. A second loss tonight, and suddenly not is Harvard (currently projected as a 9 seed) going to see their seed drop, but also will be in a 1st place Ivy tie and only 1 game ahead of 2 more teams (not to mention a lot of people in Austin, Tucson, Fort Collins, Coral Gables, Evanston and Richmond get very angsty).

Princeton is the 1 in the loss column for Harvard, the Ivy league regular season race is the conference tournament, so this game is a MUST win for the Tigers. Without it, they fall 3 back in the loss column with Harvard only having 3 games left, and the best they could do is clinch a share.

Columbia (13-12, 3-7, 171) @ Yale (17-7, 7-3, 171), 7pm ET
Columbia is just playing the role of spoiler, but at 7-3, Yale has much to play for. If they win out, they need Harvard to drop 2 games (Yale was swept by the Crimson this season), so with 4 left, they can conceivably lose 2 and still be mathematically alive. But, let's be honest, they wouldn't be. Yale needs to win, win, win and, well, win. And hope that Harvard trips up at least once this weekend (if not twice) and then, if they lose to only one Ivy P, then they also drop 1 to an Ivy C next weekend.

Pennsylvania (15-11, 7-2, 109) @ Dartmouth (5-21, 1-9, 326) 7pm ET
Penn has tried to keep pace with the Crimson as best they can, sitting 1 game back in the loss column, they have 5 remaining, including tomorrow's return matchup @ Cambridge.

Cornell (10-14, 5-5, 189) @ Brown (7-20, 1-9, 313) - 7:00pm ET
Tomorrow, Cornell probably won't be previewed - 4 games back with 4 to go, they have zero margin for error and Harvard has 0 margin for success. But, they aren't eliminated, so the Buffet talks about them here.

Metro Atlantic Athletic Conference
With just a weekend of games left, there is are only a couple certain things. 1. If Fairfield can knock Iona off tonight, the race for the regular season crown and top seed in the tournament will be very interesting, and come down to a pair of games on Sunday evening. 2. There's definitely a class system in the MAAC, with the top 4 seeds already decided, albeit without any definition on order (Iona, Loyola (Md), Fairfield and Manhattan) and the bottom 6, (Rider, Niagara, Siena, Marist holding spots 5-8, with St Pere's locked into 9th and Canisius rounding out the bottom).

Niagara (12-17, 7-9, 202) @ St. Peter's (5-23, 4-12, 300) - 8:00p ET
Niaga is sitting in alone in 6th place, after Siena's loss last night to Marist. Due to a tiebreaker, however, a win tonight will not be enough to ensure they fall to no lower than 6th. It does however put them in the driver's seat for that.

Marist's victory last night and their season sweep of St. Peter's means St. Peter's can go nowhere this weekend, and are playing for momentum heading into the tournament.

Loyola (Maryland) (20-7, 12-4, 92) @ Rider (11-18, 8-8, 217) - 7:00p ET ESPN2
The Jimmy Patsos revival tried to get back on track after a pair of conference losses suddenly cost them the pole position for the MAAC regular season title, and leaves them 1 game back with 2 to play. They are tied with Fairfield for the 2nd seed, and one game up on Manhattan in 4th. The tiebreakers are not clear because of the remaining schedule (the MAAC's tiebreaker is head-2-head as first level, and second level, your record against the other teams in the MAAC on a team by team basis starting with the highest seeded team not part of your tiebreaker on down (if teams are tied at a seed, it is the collective record against these teams).

Rider is sitting in 5th, one game up on Niagara and 2 up on Siena (but Siena's win over Iona is sitting in their back pocket like a magic tie breaking trump card). Rifer has lost 3 straight (2 straight conference games) and really could use a pair of home games against the cream of conference crop to really spread some MAAC fear heading into the tournament.

Canisius (5-22, 1-15, 330) @ Manhattan (19-10, 11-5, 132), 7:00p ET
Canisius is the 10 seed, have won a single conference game all year (Jan 13 v. Marist), although they did win their BB game against UMBC, and are pretty much the prize for the Iona/Loyola MD/Fairfield #1 seed battle royale about to ensue.

Manhattan has much to play for - with 1-15 Canisius left on their docket and then closing versus Loyola, they have a chance to hold 2nd place to themselves, or, assuming Loyola wins this evening, force a tie with the Greyhounds and/or depending on their weekend, Fairfield.

Fairfield (17-11, 12-4, 124) @ Iona (22-6, 13-3, 41) - 9:00p ET, ESPNU
the MAAC heavyweight matchup of the night. The Stags have won 7 straight conference games, and are as hot as they come in the MAAC. Derek Needham & Rakim Sanders have been very good during this stretch, and tonight could be a statement night that the MAAC tournament will be a 3-team contendership.

Iona, on the other hand, is in the driver's seat - they project as a 13 seed, and if they were needing an at-large today, based on their resume, they would be the fifth team out (using the latest Buffetology). Their win over Nevada last week was impressive, and while this team is allergic to defense, they are not allergic to scoring and great offensive players (NCAA assists leader Scott Machado, LaMont Jones & Michael Glover come to mind). Should be a fun game, and a win, and Iona has not only clinched a regular season championship tie but also all but clinched the top seed in the MAAC tournament.

Western Athletic Conference
Idaho (16-11, 7-4, 149) @ Utah State (14-14, 5-6, 160) 9:05pm ET - ESPN3

With a full week of conference games left to play, other than Nevada having a pretty commanding 2 game lead with 3 to play, everything else is pretty much up for grabs here, and a breakdown of scenarios would never be worth it. Currently, Idaho is on a nice 5 game winning streak, that begin with a road win in Reno, amazingly, as it was Nevada only conference loss so far, and has them running 3rd in conference, but 3 games back with 3 to go is a tough road to hoe, but a strong finish to the season (and all of them being on the road) could be the WAC tournament message their waiting to give. Keep your eye on junior Center Kyle Barone and senior sharpshooter Deremy Geiger (that is not a J typo).

The three-time WAC champions opened up the season as if 2009-2011 was about to become -2012, beating BYU. But curious loss after curious loss, and suddenly Stew Morrill's crew is sub-.500 in conference, and likely headed to either the 3-6 or 4-5 game in the first round of the WAC tourney. Utah St needs wins, in order to prop up its seed.

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