To borrow from Star Wars, Help me Paraguy, you are our only hope.
Brazil is out. Argentina is out. Netherlands is in. Germany is in.
It will be an injustice for the overall superior futbol that South America has shown if Europe gets 3 teams in the semifinals, and South America only gets 1. It's bad enough that we won't see more of "El Diego", we can still hope for a second "guay" in the semifinals.
Paraguay has its work cut out for them, however. Their biggest problem is that they don't know how to score goals. As noted by the brilliant John Harkes, "In soccer you need to score goals." (Thanks, John) They certainly seem to be missing Salvador Cabanas. Maybe the Paraguayan coach should inform his players before the match that the guy who shot Cabanas was a Spaniard ex-pat who had predicted a Paraguay/Spain quarterfinal. That would be excellent coaching.
Alas, Spain is too good and will likely win this one. They haven't played well yet in the tournament but they still managed to get to the quarterfinal. They do just enough to win, and will do that again today. The futbol hotline expects a 1st half Spanish goal followed by a drab second half where Spain plays keep away and Paraguay shows that it has no one on its roster who can create goal scoring chances.
Who would have thought that Diego Maradona would be among the 2 best dressed coaches at the World Cup? Granted, Maradona looks like a 6 year old who had his mom dress him, but the suit is a good look - much better than the Bob Bradley track suit.
As I typed this Germany scored an early goal, and coach Joachim Loew danced around in his Sprockets gear, but the futbol Buffet still likes an Argentina comeback.
Since it's too late to preview a game that has already started, the futbol Buffet would like to share some of its favorite Diego Maradona quotes of the World Cup (as compiled by the London Telegraph). Go Albicelestes!!
Diego Maradona on his rival to the 'world's best ever player' award, Pele... "Pele should go back to the museum."
Diego Maradona on the entire nation of France and its greatest football star... "We all know what the French are like and Platini as a Frenchman thinks he knows it all."
Diego Maradona on fatherhood... "My legitimate kids are Dalma and Giannina. The rest are a product of my money and mistakes."
Diego Maradona on sportsmanship... "I was waiting for my teammates to embrace me and no one came, ... I told them, 'Come hug me or the referee isn't going to allow it.'"
Diego Maradona on smashing the car of a photographer... "I did it with the hand of reason."
Diego Maradona on being voted Fifa's joint Player of the Century... "The people voted for me. Now they want me to share the prize with Pele. I'm not going to share the prize with anybody."
Diego Maradona on World Cup 1998, and clearly not anticipating this one... "The players have all got square feet. They are like Robocops, they have more need of lubricant than massage. I don't believe the tournament could be worse."
Diego Maradona on his political affiliation... "I believe in [Venezuelen President Hugo] Chávez, I am Chavista. Everything Fidel [Castro] does, everything Chávez does, for me is the best."
Diego Maradona on his team's work ethic... "I have 23 wildcats prepared to leave their skins on the pitch."
Diego Maradona on American politics... "I think Bush is a murderer. I'm going to head the march against him stepping foot on Argentine soil."
Diego Maradona on proving the doubters wrong... "To those who did not believe: now suck my d**k - I'm sorry ladies for my words - and keep on sucking it. I am either white or black. I will never be grey in my life. You treated me as you did. Now keep on sucking d**ks. I am grateful to my players and to the Argentinian people. I thank no one but them. The rest, keep on sucking d**ks."
At risk of this blog turning into a lovefest for Uruguay, Luis Suarez is a hero. There aren't many of those, so it's nice to add a new legend. And Suarez is not a cheater - he simply extended the game. It's like a basketball team trailing by 4 fouling to extend the game. The amazing part is that Suarez had already blocked one goal on that play with his feet, and somehow had the foresight to decide that if he couldn't block a second with his body, he'd do it with his hands.
After Suarez's 120th minute handball saved a goal-bound shot by Ghana, John Harkes was incredulous ("What was he thinking?"), but the referee saw it and did what the rules require: red card for Suarez (he misses the semifinal) and a penalty kick for Ghana. It would have been a horrible injustice if the ref had not seen the handball. But this handball was so obvious that it was clearly strategic, and not meant to trick the ref.
The futbol Buffet readers might notice that I haven't written anything about "poor Ghana." Poor Asamoah Gyan. Have we already forgotten that this is the team that eliminated the U.S. 1 week ago? I'm not rooting for Kobe after he eliminates the Suns. And I'm not rooting for Ghana after they eliminate the USMNT. Ghana choked - so sad.
Uruguay is good. At least when they want to be. For the first 15 minutes and the final 20 minutes, Uruguay looked like a dominating team. It was those middle 55 minutes that was so troubling. Apparently, they feel like they can turn on the offense whenever they want. They could against South Korea, but that's not going to hold up moving forward. Luis Suarez and Diego Forlan are the best attacking duo in the tournament so far, but the coach shouldn't press his luck.
So is Uruguay doomed by their coach's tactics? It's hard to be critical of someone who clearly is the second "most interesting man in the world." Luis Suarez had this to say about his coach:
"He once taught a german s hepherd to bark - in Russian."
"He once had an awkward moment - just to see how it feels."
Thanks to McClure for the wonderful image. The excitement in that locker room must have been incredible - so incredible that they were happy to drink Budweiser. I had no idea that Budweiser was not only was the official beer in the stands, but also in the locker room.
In any event, the futbol Buffet needed a good 30 minutes to catch his breath after the Donovan goal against Algeria. The team had gone 90 minutes playing their best game of the World Cup, and had somehow, inexplicably, failed to score a goal on a cowardly Alegerian side. Why cowardly? Because they could have advanced with a win, but instead decided to play like Greece.
But moving on to the Black Stars of Ghana: The more I think about this game, the more convinced I get that the U.S. should win. Ghana is without Michael Essien, but have found a new star in their central midfielder Andre Ayew. Asamoah Gyan is their France based striker who looks good all the way until he fails to score. That's a lot like Jozy Altidore. But the American team seems to have a good balance of going for goals and not being caught on offense.
I think Gooch is done for the tournament - he's just too slow right now. And although I have never liked Jonathan Bornstein because he tends to do really stupid stuff, he had a very nice game against Algeria. I can't think of a single bad play.
Proposed starting U.S. lineup:
Strikers: Altidore and Buddle Midfield: Dempsey, Bradley, Edu, Donovan Defense: Bornstein, Bocanegra, Demerit, and Cherundolo.
Like all of the futbol Buffet readers, I'm a huge Honduras fan. Unfortunately, despite how much I want them to win, I don't believe it will happen. So let's say hello and goodbye at the same time to super-midfielder Wilson Palacios. Rumor is that Real Madrid are seriously considering acquiring him. And that's a long way from where he started. He's hard not to root for - especially considering the considerable hours he has spent with team psychologists trying to get over the kidnapping/murder of his brother in Honduras. Go Catrachos!
Spain: Along with Brazil, they are the favorites to win the World Cup. They have world-class talent at every position, and play a more crowd-pleasing style than the Brazilians with the quick midfield passes of Xavi and Andres Iniesta. Fernando Torres and David Villa will score lots of goals, and Carlos Puyol will savagely patrol the back line. This team will probably come away with the full 9 points.
Chile: In probably, the easiest group, Chile will advance, despite not being a very well-rounded team. They score a lot of goals behind Real Zaragoza's Humberto Suazo (top scorer in South American qualifying) and play an attacking style. They should be fun to watch, until they get destroyed by Brazil in the 2nd Round.
Switzerland: This blogger is running out of gas and is getting progressively less detailed. But then again, there's not much to say about a team that is as boring as Switzerland. They don't give up many goals, and they don't score many goals. They don't play an attractive style of futbol. They score mostly off of set pieces. In short, I don't care about them. Goodbye.
Honduras: Although impossible not to root for them, they have a defense that makes Rountree Juniors look formidable. I'm looking forward to the Carlos Pavon and David Suazo attacking combo. They are exciting to watch. This Honduras team will score some goals, but also give them up two-fold. I like Spain to roll through the opener 5-2, with the possibility of some American football scores lighting up the scoreboard.
That's it for the previews. Go U.S.! Go Cameroon! Go Honduras!
I apologize for spreading my whole preview out among eight billion different posts; everything ended up looking screwy when I tried to just cut-and-paste the preview into one post. And I don't know why the posts didn't all go up in the order in which they were posted (which is chronological order of the tournament).
Finally, I encourage everybody to make sure they look at the archives to find the posts labeled "previews," which are Leif's much more in-depth previews of each group, and which are now hard to find now that my posts are cluttering this previously uncluttered blog.
The futbol Buffet assumes that this is a photograph of Kim Jong-Il and the North Korean World Cup futbol team, but it cannot be certain. One thing is for certain, there will not be any North Korean fans at the World Cup - not even that good looking guy in the front-middle. There will be, however, 1,000 Chinese fans who were paid to go to South Africa and root for North Korea. Stay classy Kim Jong-Il.
Oh by the way, this is the so-called Group of Death - and that has nothing to do with North Korea. So I'll try to stay focused.
Predicted Finish:
1. Brazil
2. Ivory Coast
3. Portugal
4. North Korea
Brazil:
The lovely people of Brazil don't seem to like this version of the Selecao. Apparently winning consistently and in dominating fashion is not sufficient. The team must also show the famous Brazilian flair that was noted by multiple Hotline members at the fanfest in Gelsenkirchen, Germany. Rondaldinho did not make the team. I wonder if Brian Ching would have been in the picture for that last roster spot. To quote Al Davis, "Just Win, Baby." And the futbol Buffet thinks they will not only cruise through the group stage, but win the entire tournament.
Ivory Coast:
In a close call, C'ote d'Ivoire gets the nod over Cristiano Ronaldo and Portugal, even with the recent elbow injury to super-striker Didier Drogba. Although the credibility of the Ivory Coast public relations director must be questioned, word on the street is that Drogba will play. The same cannot be said for the Portuguese midfielder Nani - who is out for the entire tournament. In the battle of who is injured less, the futbol Buffet will take the Africans. They also clearly win the battle of the better jerseys.
Portugal:
Not only have they lost Nani, but their recent form has been poor, having not too long ago tied the Faroe Islands. I would compare that to a full U.S. squad tying Barbados. Pre-World Cup friendlies are hardly reliable for showing how the team will react when it counts, but this team hasn't looked impressive for a long time. If this were Mad Money, Jim Kramer would yell "sell." I'm selling. One-time World Player of the Year Cristiano Ronaldo has never found his groove with this national team, and won't in South Africa either.
North Korea:
Jong Tae-Se, otherwise known as "The People's Wayne Rooney", is their main striking option. Apparently he also plays like a bull in a china shop. In fact, he is one of their only players who has much known about him because he has spent a large portion of his life outside North Korea. He was born in South Korea, to a North Korean mother and a Japanese father. He attempted to renounce his South Korean citizenship and become North Korean. North Korea issued him a passport, but since South Korea doesn't recognize North Korea, he is technically still a South Korean citizen. He also plays his club futbol in Japan. One interesting anecdote is that when the North Koreans got together for pre-World Cup training, the other players were fascinated by Jong Tae-Se's cell phone and spent a long time passing it around a playing with it. I'd like to see them do well, but I don't think it's in the cards. There will be 1,000 greatly disappointed Chinese North Korean soccer fans.
Not as easy for the United States as the final tables make it look, and, with panic and mayhem imminent from London to Liverpool, the Three Lions lay down the hammer in their final match and, with help from their former colonial subjects, advance.
Finally, the Total Footballers play less than brilliantly, and Spain shows again that they only lose when they're playing the United States. Sergio Ramos and Fernando Torres combine twice--each one assisting the other on a goal--in the first half, and after Wesley Sneijder draws one back for the Dutch early in the second half, Cesc Fabregas provides the final margin in the 60th minute, and the last half-hour is a coronation for Spain.
With obviously nothing to lose, both teams play carefree, attacking soccer. Wayne Rooney nets a brace to clinch the Golden Boot but, having managed to stay calm the entire tournament, headbutts Cuauhtemoc Blanco in retaliation for a crude comment about Rooney's sister and is shown a red card.
The dream finally ends for Mexico as they are, like all Dutch opponents of the past few weeks, overwhelmed by total football. Spain, meanwhile, finally avenges the humiliation of 1588 in a game that is much more exciting than the score indicates, with both teams creating many scoring chances but only David Villa converting. Ashley Cole, desperately pushing forward in stoppage time, hits the woodwork in England's last chance, and I comment for the last time about how I can't hear his name without thinking of Ashley-Pitt from The Great Escape.
In a cathartic win for 111 million of our friendly neighbors to the south and another 40 million or so immigrants and Americans of Mexican descent in the United States, El Tri avenge a bunch of things--their loss to the bullies from the north during the 2002 octovofinals; the ascension by the United States, at the expense of Mexico, to the top of CONCACAF; drunken idiot frat boys descending on Cancun every spring break; and general American haughtiness, condescension, and occasional belligerence toward Mexico--when Oguchi Onyewu, lacking match fitness, is finally betrayed by his tired legs in the 116th minute and is beaten to a head ball for the winning goal by Andres Guardado, the shortest man on the pitch. Meanwhile, the Brilliant Orange Total Footballers continue their brilliant, orange total football.
In the other half of the bracket, England goes through 4-2 on spot kicks to end decades of frustration and also decades of somehow always being cast as plucky underdogs despite inventing the sport and having the richest domestic league and many of the world's best players. Kind of like the Red Sox of international soccer. And, much like the Red Sox after 2004, they become insufferable immediately after the match, and the rest of the world starts rooting against them again. Which feels much better. Meanwhile, La Furia Roja continue their post-2006 roll, having lost only once now in their last 53 matches.
The United States exacts a measure of revenge for their quarterfinal loss in 2002; Italy's cowardly, whiny, flopping brand of football finally fails to pay dividends as they are overwhelmed in the opening half-hour by the Total Footballers, who spend the rest of the time making short passes that go nowhere; Lionel Messi makes sure the dream ends for the hometowners; and the Battle for Iberia provides the most thrilling, back-and-forth match of the tournament, with Andres Iniesta netting the game-winner just two minutes from full time. England and Cameroon advance easily while late goals shrink otherwise comfortable margins of victory for Mexico and Brazil.
Not only does the futbol Buffet not see this happening again, it doesn't see Italy advancing out of group play in the shock of the tournament. New Zealand is clearly out of its league and will lose every game it plays. But Slovakia will show that they are no pushover, and when they play Italy in their third game on June 24th, they will shock the world. P.S. Has anyone seen Buffet Slovak Martin Zabka since he was spotted playing midnight futbol with a random German in Gelsenkirchen?
Predicted Finish: 1. Paraguy 2. Slovakia 3. Italy 4. New Zealand (and last place in the entire tournament)
Paraguay: The big question for Paraguay is whether they will be able to compensate for the loss of striker Salvador Cabanas. The Hotline probably remembers that Cabanas was savagely shot in the head while in a restaurant in the otherwise tranquil town of Mexico City. And you thought Charlie Davies had bad luck. But Paraguay is not a team that is lacking in offensive ability. The Hotline is expecting strong showings from Nelson Valdez (Dortmund) and Oscar Cardozo (Benfica). Off the bench they can also call on World Cup veteran Roque Santa Cruz. There defense was their strongest area in South American qualifying so they should get through no matter what.
Slovakia: Slovakia is not favored by the experts to get out of the group stage, and you could easily argue that if you like Slovakia, then you have to also like Slovenia, since both advanced out of the same European qualifying group, beating out the Czech Republic. The Hotline, however, is impressed by their silky smooth midfield, led by Marek Hamsik and the coach's son, Vladimir Weiss. The Hotline is also welcoming to World Cup football Stanislav Sestak, who we expect to tear up the group stage with 4 goals.
Italy: The last straw for the Hotline came with the news that Italy's central midfield maestro, Andrea Pirlo, would be out for the entire group stage. This injury, combined with their recent poor form and their lack of new/younger players from the 2006 squad is going to see them eliminated. Think France in 2002 and that's what you can expect from the 2010 Italians. Why change a squad that won the World Cup? Because Slovakia is young, talented, and going to clean your clocks.
New Zealand: This could be one of the worst teams to ever play in a World Cup. They will be lucky to score a goal.
In a match reminiscent of the USA/Italia match from Kaiserslautern, Honduras plays to a shocking draw in their second match, but it's not enough to send them through or to hold back Spain, who advances, followed by Chile.
The presence of Cristiano Ronaldo and the absence of Didier Drogba make the difference, as a late bit of brilliance from the much-maligned world's highest-paid footballer in the opening match provides the margin to send Portugal through after Brazil.
Confident that the rest of the group is, at best, pedestrian, Italy and Paraguay celebrate Flag Day with the least-inspired match of the tournament, and then barely break a sweat the rest of the way.
Argentina cruises, and a stoppage-time consolation goal for Nigeria in their opening match winds up providing the margin to send the Super Eagles through.
Go Cameroon! The Buffet is not going to try and hide its love for the Indomitable Lions. It's true that they on occasion play defense like a pub team, but if there is one African team that is positioned to make a quality run at this World Cup, it's Cameroon.
Oh yeah - this group also has the Netherlands aka Holland (Trivia for Buffet readers: Why are they the Dutch?) But since I am heavily USA biased, I have a hard time not being grumpy about them since Nigel de Jong's brutal bone crushing (literally) tackle on Stuart Holden earlier this year. Thankfully, Holden is now back from injury, but my hatred for all things de Jong are only getting started. I look forward to Cameroonian destoyer Alexandre Song sending de Jong to de showers early.
Predicted Finish:
1. Holland/Netherlands/Dutch/Dirty de Jong
2. Camerooon!!
3. Denmark
4. Japan
Netherlands (12 to 1):
This team is loaded and one of the Buffet favorites to win the World Cup. There is a recent injury scare to report, Arjen Robben strained his hamstring in a warm-up match a couple of days ago, but reports are that the injury is not too serious. That would be a blow, but this team has talent all over - except perhaps in the goal. Wesley Sneijder is the key. The Inter Milan midfielder is not exactly an unknown, but he may become a break out star. Robin Van Persie, Dirk Kuyt, and Rafael Van Der Vaart will provide plenty of scoring punch. And they have a formidable defense with both skill and savagery (See de Jong, Nigel - above).
Cameroon (80 to 1):
I anticipated picking Denmark to finish second, but after further review the Indomitable Lions of Cameroon will take it. Cameroon opens up against the weakest team, Japan, while Denmark gets the Dutch. Cameroon will come into that all important second match against Denmark with 3 points and Denmark will have 0, meaning Denmark will have to go for the win and play an open match. This plays right into the Lions' favor, and they will sneak another victory. Go Lions! This is likely the final World Cup for Samuel Eto'o, the former Barcelona and current Inter Milan striker and the Buffet can expect a big tournament. And with fans like the guy in the photo, do you really want to bet against Cameroon?
Denmark (125 to 1):
They started European qualification with a long unbeaten run, and then sorted of coasted to the finish with a couple draws and a loss. But if their new wonderkid, Nicholas Bendtner of Arsenal, is healthy, they will have enough creativity to be dangerous. This team reminds me of the Swiss team from 2006 - scraping out results, but not looking particularly good doing it. If they can steal a point against Holland - watch out.
Japan (250 to 1):
Japan is a team without any real stars and without any real big wins in the past 4 years. They consistently beat the teams they are supposed to beat, but haven't had a break through against a quality team in forever. Interestingly, and I don't understand why, they have an incredible recent record against African teams. No matter, Cameroon is too big and strong. Japan also tries to play ball possession as if they were Brazil or Spain yet don't have any creative engines in the midfield. That's not good - and neither are they. Sionora.
Group D has been struck by some serious injuries in the lead-up to the World Cup. Michael Ballack did not seem pleased when he was tackled by Portsmouth (and Ghana) midfielder Kevin Prince-Boateng in the FA Cup. The studs-up tackle left Ballack with ligament damage and has made him unavailable for the entire tournament. Ballack thought it was a dirty tackle, and perhaps there will be payback when Germany meets Ghana on June 23rd. Boateng better watch his back.
But Ghana has its own injury problems. Their best player (and another Ballack's Chelsea teammate) Michael Essien has been ruled out of the tournament with a knee injury. So this leaves Group D without their two biggest stars. No matter-it's still a strong group and should be competitive in every game. Ghana, Serbia, and to a lesser extent, Australia have realistic shots at the second spot.
Predicted Finish: 1. Germany 2. Ghana 3. Serbia 4. Australia
Germany (14 to 1): Even without Ballack, the Buffet remembers the Euro 2008 squad that featured most of the same characters: Bastian Schweinsteiger in the midfield, Phillip Lahm at right back but leaking forward on occasion, and the strike partnership of the ageless Miroslav Klose and the inconsistent Lukas Podolski. Germany doesn't lose in the first round, and there's no reason to think that they won't advance out of their group.
Ghana (66 to 1): Despite the hugh loss of Michael Essien, Ghana still has significant talent and look to at least equal their 2006 World Cup run. Returning from that 2006 squad is striker Asamoah Gyan and midfielder Stephen Appiah. Readers may recall Gyan's 76th second goal against the Czech Republic, the fastest goal in WC history. Although ranking Ghana and Serbia is tough, I give Ghana the slight edge in this African World Cup.
Serbia (66 to 1): After Serbia qualified ahead of France in their European group, Serbia became a sleeper pick to do well. That love for the Serbs has gone down considerably since they lost a World Cup warm-up to an AWFUL New Zealand squad. The friendly was played in front of a heavily Serb crowd in Austriia and led to the angry Serbs booing their own squad after the game. In fact, Nemanja Vidic, their fullback (and Manchester United star) had to take the microphone and calm down the masses.
Serbia is known for a solid defense and well-organized midfield. Although a loss to New Zealand could normally be forgiven, they are playing in a tough group and their lack of offense will lead to an early exit.
Australia (125 to 1): This is a team that has quite a few players that play in England and will be recognizable to Buffet readers. Their only real scoring threat is Tim Cahill, the Everton midfielder who will likely play a striker for the Aussies since they don't have very many options up front. Normally this wouldn't be the problem with former Liverpool and current Galatasaray striker Harry Kewell in the mix, but Kewell has played a total of 5 minutes of competetive soccer in 2010. He claims he will be ready for the opener against Germany, but it's going to be hard for the coach to start a player who has been out for so long. At least the defense is good with Fulham goalkeeper Mark Schwarzer.
Pictured above is the 1950 United States team that defeated the heavily favored English in the 1950 World Cup by a score of 1-0. This year's U.S. team will be sporting uniforms with the same sash. The English are once again favored, but not nearly as much as they were in 1950. And a recent injury to England captain and central defender Rio Ferdinand should further even the playing field.
Predicted Finish:
1. England
2. United States
3. Slovenia
4. Algeria
England:
England suffered a big blow today when it was learned that Rio Ferdinand has been ruled out of the entire World Cup with some ligament damage in his knee. Matthew Upson or Ledley King will likely take his spot. The English captain is now going to be midfielder Steven Gerrard. This is a big blow, but not something that will stop the English from advancing out of this relatively easy group. With Wayne Rooney up top (and I like Peter Crouch too - even if his height makes him an awkward looking forward), Steven Gerrard and Frank Lampard in the middle with Aaron Lennon on the wing, this is a very talented team.
United States:
This blog is heavily biased, so excuse the extra analysis of the U.S. team. Things seem to be falling just right for the U.S. at a World Cup, and this is their best chance to date to not only advance out of the group stage, but to also win their group. With the English injuries and the rise in the American talent pool, the opener on June 12th is winnable.
The U.S. is likely going to use their standard 4-4-2. Here is the predicted and preferred starting 11.
Defenders(from left to right): Carlos Bocanegra (captain), Jay Demerit, Oguchi Onyewu, and Steve Cherundolo.
Midfield: Landon Donovan, Michael Bradley, Jose Torres, and Clint Dempsey.
Strikers: Jozy Altidore and Robbie Findley
The starting defense is all set to go, unless Onyewu has some more trouble with his knee. The midfield is all set except for the Jose Torres (Pachuca) position, which might go to Maurice Edu (Rangers). I like Torres after the U.S./Turkey friendly last week because not only does he have great dribbling and distribution skills, but he finally showed that he is willing to play scrappy defense.
The attacking partner for Jozy Altidore is the final question. Coach Bob Bradley likes to have a speedster there (similar to the still injured Charlie Davies), so it will probably be either Findley (Real Salt Lake) or Herculez Gomez (Pachuca). It's a toss-up - but Findley is from Phoenix so he should get the start.
The scary part about this group is that the players for Slovenia and Algeria are not well-known, and will be tough to prepare for. If the U.S. can tie England and Slovenia, and beat Algeria in the final match, that should get them through to the next round.
Slovenia:
Slovenia is not supposed to be in this World Cup. When they were drawn in a home/away playoff with Russia for a spot most of the world booked Russia and Andrei Arshavin for South Africa. But Slovenia got it done. They are a team without any real stars, but have a lot of experience playing as a cohesive unit - that sounds a lot like the U.S. team. Probably their biggest individual talent is their goalkeeper, Samir Handanovic, who plays for Udinese. This is a hard team to preview so you could say that they have the potential to be a Group C sleeper.
Algeria:
I don't expect Algeria to do much more than get destroyed by everyone else. They stunned their bitter rivals Egypt by qualifying, but don't seem to have a lot of talent. Their biggest problem will be scoring any goals. Their best scoring option is old (35) and their most interesting quality is that their goalkeeper is a little crazy and shows it on the field.
Keys of the Group:
Landon Donovan: If he can get the ball enough on the wing, the U.S. will score plenty of goals and be dangerous.
English Defense: Will the injury to Rio Ferdinand be too much for the English?
Is this the guy that you want to lead your team? Diego Maradona is a man of contrasts: a cocaine addict, Fidel Castro supporter, and an admitted cheater (Hand of God), but also one of the two best players of all time and the only player to ever make it onto a Buffet sponsored coffee mug. So how has he done so far as a manager? He got into a spat with Juan Roman Riquelme which led to Riquelme's decision to retire from international futbol and tinkered with his team so much that despite a wealth of talent they barely qualified.
Predicted Finish:
Argentina
Nigeria
South Korea
Greece
Argentina:
It's not fair how much talent Argentina has. Leo Messi, World player of the year. Diego Millito, most valuable player of the recently played Champion's League Final, having scored two goals. Sergio Aguero (Maradona's son in law), Carlos Tevez, Gonzalo Higuain, and the list goes on. Not all of these world class strikers are going to be able to play. Look for Tevez and Higuain to get the start with Messi playing in Maradona's old role as a floating midfielder/striker. Juan Sebastian Veron may be old but he is playing well and will be anchoring the midfield.
No matter what Maradona does, Argentina will win this group. They are far and away the most talented team in this weakest of groups.
Nigeria/South Korea:
These teams are in the pickem category. The Buffet will give a slight advantage to the taller and stronger Nigerians over the feisty South Koreans, but it could go either way. Nigeria is normally known for their talented attack, but this team is actually more well-rounded if less flashy. Some stars to watch include John Obi-Mikel, who plays as a defensive midfielder for Chelsea, but for the Super-Eagles will be play in the offensive midfield. Taye Taiwo of Marseille is known as a set piece specialist and Yakubu Aiyegbeni (Everton) is a monster of a forward who won't be outmuscled off of any ball. Of course, he also won't outrun Aaron Arnold.
South Korea breezed through Asian qualifying going undefeated, a remarkable feat. The critics say that they do not have a deep enough squad to be successful in the World Cup. But they do have some star power with Manchester United midfielder Park Ji-Sung. The Buffet fondly remember's Park's 2002 WC last minute goal against Portugal that sent Portugal packing, and the United States through to the next round. He will be joined by the young gun Lee Chung-Yong, recently signed by Bolton. The Buffet has been told by its Asian scouts that Chung-Yong should be a force on the right wing.
Greece:
It is not 2004, and there will be no repeat of that miracle tournament. Greece is a solid team that focuses on defense and tries to steal the rare goal. The Buffet hates this and can't be expected to give a realistic evaluatino of their chances at the World Cup. So here it is: They are awful and if there is any justice in the world Greece will lose 1-0 in every game, go home, and get back to work on fixing that wonderful social safety net. I would retire at age 50 if I could too!
Welcome to the 2nd Quadrennial Buffet FIFA World Cup Blog, sponsored by Schlitz beer, the official beer of the FIFA World Cup South Africa. (Correction: After receiving a "cease and desist" letter from FIFA headquarters in Zurich, the Buffet acknowledges that Schlitz is only the official beer for the Central Phoenix Chapter's numerous viewing parties.) And so we go from the comfortable confines of Germany to the great unknown in South Africa. The struggle to complete the stadiums on time has been successful, although the transportation infrastructure will likely be a nightmare.
The people of South Africa are excited, yet controversy continues to swirl. FIFA originally only sold tickets over the internet, a system that was dreadfully impractical for those South Africans who don’t have a bank account, much less a credit card. By the time cash ticket sales began, word leaked that the official World Cup song would be sung by Shakira – a Colombian. That did not go over well with the locals either. Word has it that every time the Shakira song is played the South Africans will drown it out with the noise from their vuvuzelas, a plastic horn that the Buffet will come to hear in its sleep during the coming month.
Unfortunately, the Buffet has not sent representatives to the festivities, but it has been in contact with FIFA president Sepp Blatter, as well as CONCACAF president Jack Warner, who send their best wishes to the Buffet. The Buffet had a chance to interview them both telephonically as they travelled from Zurich to Johannesburg aboard their privately owned Boeing Dreamliner. From the Quotesheet:
Sepp Blatter:
No, I was not personally involved in the Thierry Henry handball. Just because I told the referee to let France win no matter what, that doesn’t mean that I had any impact upon the result. France simply outplayed Ireland and deserved to qualify. In any event, the French are a great group of guys - not withstanding that whole juvenile prostitute thing. It could have happened to anyone.
Jack Warner:
Yes, I certainly deserve to remain the president of CONCACAF. All of these accusations of bribery and theft of FIFA funds are truly outrageous. Just because every player on the 2006 Trinidad & Tobago squad claims that they were not paid their FIFA payment doesn’t make it true. And it’s beside the point that a lot of those players were semi-pro players with no fixed income. Sepp, could you pass the champagne and caviar?
Group A In order of predicted finish: 1. Uruguay 2. South Africa 3. Mexico 4. France
Uruguay Uruguay played inconsistently in South American qualification, but they arrive in South Africa with the hottest duo of attacking options in the tournament. Luis Suarez, of the Dutch club Ajax managed to score 35 goals in only 33 matches. His partner up front will be Atletico Madrid striker Diego Forlan - he of the golden mane. The firepower will push them to the top.
South Africa
Before you stop reading this blog because I'm picking South Africa to advance over France and Mexico, keep in mind that no host country has failed to advance to the second round. Not even the supremely untalented 1994 United States team. Since manager Carlos Alberto Perreira, the Brazilian, has returned for his second stint in charge of the "Bofana Bofana", the team has improved considerably. True, their FIFA ranking is pathetic (#83), but they have put together some recent solid performances, their star midfielder Steven Pienaar is back with the team, and their fans will be intimidating with the vuvuzelas.
Mexico
Mexico has a knack for getting to the second round no matter who is in their group - but not this time. Like always, Mexico will dominate ball possession, knock the ball back and forth and occasionally scrape together a goal through either the speed of Giovanni Dos Santos or Carlos Vela, but their lack of defense will be their downfall. Mexico doesn't have the size in the back to stop set pieces. Look for Mexico to control games - and lose anyway.
France
The post-Zidane era is not going to get off to a good start. They stole a spot in the World Cup finals through Thierry Henry's blatant handball. (How much would I rather be writing about Ireland right now?) Their top player, Franck Ribery, the winger from Bayern Munich, is in trouble at home for hiring an underage hooker at a Paris nightclub. And most importantly, the manager, Raymond Domenech, is going to employ a 4-3-3 formation, a la Steve Sampson. At the end of the group stage there will be calls for "Off With His Head."
Keys to the Group:
The Opener: South Africa and Mexico begin the tournament with the whole world watching. The emotion will give the South Africans a huge lift.
Steven Pienaar: The South African (Everton) midfielder is in good form and will be the central midfield engine for the Bofana Bofana. He's set to have a huge coming out party on the world stage.
Luis Suarez: If he stays on fire, Uruguay will be a fun team to watch.
Rafael Marquez and Cuahtehmoc Blanco: Who would have thought that these two would make it to yet another World Cup? Blanco is simply too old and slow to play at this level. And I think I speak for every American fan (and especially Cobi Jones) when I wish Marquez a tournament full of heartache and pain.
From 3000 miles in the air*, for the first time since the invention of the Buffet, welcome to a post-13 Days of Conference Tourneys Buffet. We’ll bring you game by game analysis, what the Buffet thinks the odds should be versus what they are … and maybe some of the biting wit and incomparable prose that you’ve come to love from the Buffet.
*For context sake, the Buffet’s editorial staff is off to Japan – and we’re 7 hours and 3 movies in – and there are several factors motivating this Blog entry.
1. The Buffet was put on earth to pick (wrongly, more often than not) the games of the first round of the NCAA tournament.
2. There has not been one first weekend of the tournament from the day, in March, 2001, that new papa Gregory Douglas Ott turned to the Editorial Staff and explained the virtues of the first weekend spent in Vegas has the Buffet missed a first weekend in Vegas, and here we are 4 days away and the Buffet is flying 10 hours West of the annual March landing spot.
3. It is quite literally like airline executives all got together to devise a movie schedule strategically for American passengers to have the fondest air travel memories … in-bound flights to the US? They feature 3 best picture nominees, and a Spike Jonze adaptation of a classic children’s book featuring Tony Soprano.Flying outbound? A Robert Deniro mood-movie that someone forgot to tell him he was actually in, a Ricky Gervais film that forgot to be funny, and the depressing, but true, cinematic highlight: Whip It!Yes. A girls’ roller derby movie directed by Drew Barrymore was the best movie on a 13 hour flight.
The highlights:Marcia Gay “Joe Mencher” Harden; ignoring the atrociousness of the script (which was developed by the author of the book herself, so there is zero excuse) and acting her face off; learning that Juno can play something other than smart-alec pregnant teen; various shots of Austin (the Alamo Draft House, the “Hi How Are You?” frog/alien mural painted on the side of the building (now a sushi restaurant) on the drag at 21st and Guadalupe, Waterloo Ice House; an awesome clip of mid-1990s UT football featuring a form tackle by Aaron Humphrey; some very nifty small details by Drew Barrymore – at one point the roller derby coach, yes they have coaches, called in a play, except the featured team has a pair of hearing-impaired players (think the tight end in The Replacements), instead of ignoring this detail, just before the players head back to the rink? Surface? Track? The coach is careful to flash the play board to the player so as to make sure she got the instructions. The soundtrack – you want to give the Buffet some MGMT, we will return happiness to you.
The lowlights: Pretty much the entire movie. Drew Barrymore’s acting. Kristen Wiig playing a serious role. Jimmy Fallon playing a non-serious role that wasn’t actually funny.Eve acting at all.Andrew Wilson, who apparently approached his role as ‘quirky roller derby coach’ by watching every Jason Lee movie ever made and endeavoring to mimic his voice, intonation and expressions.
One more highlight (non-movie edition, but took place during the movie) – the two people two my left, who introduced themselves to one another when we all first sat down, who are now laying all over each other in the two seats next to me. Awkward? Perhaps. But even the Buffet can appreciate the blossoming what it sure to be a long-lasting and fulfilling relationship for the both of them.
So, with the motivation in place, the subject set, and apparently zero traces of exhaustion – which would be nice, since the staff just adjusted the clock on this computer to Tokyo time, and we just lost 11 hours of time in the process. Whoa – its time to take a look at the 1st round of the 2010 NCAA tournament. And yes, the Buffet understands what it means to put all picks on display and potentially let everyone know what you don't know. Bring on the loss of credibility:
Kansas v. Lehigh – It’s not like heaping praise on the Jayhawks is novel, this is arguably the nation’s most balanced team – a senior floor general who can take over a game with a flip of switch (see his quiet effort on senior night versus Kansas St, that quickly turned into a show of dominance and will), a skilled off-guard who can essentially be a 2nd point guard on the floor (Tyshawn Taylor), an explosive wing-man who is talented enough to be leaned on, young enough to not realize how bright the lights are in the tournament, and selfless enough to understand that when necessary (Xavier Henry), this is Sherron Collins’ team, a big man who works both ends of the court and is quietly what makes this team go (Cole Aldrich), and twins. I mean, unless they play for Stanford, who doesn’t respect some twins. (Ronnell and Donnell Taylor, anyone? You know, UAB when UAB was still cool?) KU has been a tour du force in 2009-2010, 32 wins in 34 games, including near Big 12 perfection, you know the top rated conference by RPI, no big deal, scoring 81 points per game, giving up just 64, outperforming their opponents in just about every major category, and playing a relentless man-to-man defense that helps neutralize the tried and true tournament upset-trap –(together with over-confidence by the higher seed, and a crowd thirsty for an upset) - unconscious 3-point shooting by the double-digit seed…
Speaking of which, that’s who opposes Kansas in their first-round matchup, the 9th ranked 3point shooting team in the nation. A lot of swing passing and an offensive system that would make Norman Dale proud, Lehigh is methodical when at their best, and draining 3 after three.A man-to-man defensive team, with a slight zone mix-in, the Buffet openly wonders where the athletes who can stay with Kansas’ depth and the big man to keep Cole Aldrich from having a career game are going to come from? Lehigh exhibits a healthy reliance on youth, the nation’s leading freshman scorer (yes, that includes you John Wall, Xavier Henry, DeMarcus Cousins, and any of the Underachieving Trio down in Austin) C.J. McCollum, and a point guard (Marquis Hall) who is a top-notch floor general, but happens to find shooting to be among life’s greatest obstacles.
Common Opponents: None.
Instructive Opponents: Lehigh fell to tournament teams Richmond by 12, Waiting Liner Dayton by 18.
Kansas roughed up teams in the field, trouncing Oakland 89-59, California 84-69, and Temple 84-52, knocking around Texas 80-68 in Austin, Missou on the road with nothing on the line, 82-65, even waking early enough on senior night to put away Kansas State, 82-65.
If there’s an Achilles heel with this year’s Jayhawk outfit it’s a periodic lack of killer instinct – it caused their only losses of the season (failing to put it to an injury/suspension depleted Tennessee team and sleeping walking through Stillwater with an undefeated Big 12 season in their grasp), but also led them to be closer than comfort against Colorado, as well as Cornell in Lawrence. Even v. K-State on Senior Night, Bill Self noticed a lack of hunger.But when they are mal-nourished? Wow. That 32 point show in Philly was something to behold. But does it take a top-notch outfit like Temple, Missouri, and the Pac-10 champs to get KU’s attention? That’s the question.
Analysis: Kansas will win this game. Yes, the kind of cutting edge of journalism that separates the Buffet from the rest of the college hoops blogging community.But, more to the point, the Buffet sees a 25 point win the future – 90-65.
Buffet Line: KU -25
Opening Line: Kansas -26.5
Northern Iowa v. UNLV
Take the under. No, seriously. People hear the name “UNLV” and think of Larry Johnson, Greg Anthony, and a wide-open, defensive-free style where 100 points was harder for some NBA teams to come by than the Runnin’ Rebels. That’s not the 2010 Lon Kruger Rebels.A team that plays an intense, in-your-face defense, whose offense pretty much is Tre’Von Willis and the Mayor, Oscar Bellfield running around ball screens trying to create offense.They have a deep deep bench – former starter and standout performer, Matt Shaw sits on it, along with 40% 3pt shooter Kendall Wallce – and an x-factor in Chace Stanback, the UCLA transfer who has rocketed to be a nice second to Tre’Von on many nights.
On the other side, you’ve got Northern Iowa – the prototypical Missou Valley outfit who doesn’t score a whole lot, gives up even less. We’ll call them the 60-point Panthers, since they are 19-0 when they score 60 or more points.Fueled by a couple of great names – KWADZO! Ahelegbe, who seems to be a less-athletic Tre’Von Willis, in that he is the lone Panther who can penetrate at will, but forces the action on occasion, and is not a great deeper shooter, Ali Farokhmanesh, the 3point bomber on a team who doesn’t shoot so great from 3, streaky as you’d expect but when he’s on, UNI is tough to beat, Jordan Eglseder, patient, good decision-making and ginormous (7’0, 280 pounds) – he quickly became a Buffet favorite. The best part about UNI is Adam Koch. Not just because his brother Jake is on the team (The Buffet loves itself some nepotism), not only because he wasn’t top 10 in any statistical category but still was named MVC Player of the Year, but that he went scoreless in the MVC Tournament final and Northern Iowa still won by 15.
Here’s the issue: offense.The reference to a new-school UNLV team being on display is nice, but they still average over 70 points per game – UNI? 63? That’s gross folks.That’s, “it’s freezing in Chicago in the middle of January, and all I get to watch is this 42-40 with 4 minutes left in the game contest between Wisconsin and Michigan State? Really?” gross. But they are relentless on defense, make you do things you don’t want to, and will likely earn the right to get blown out by Kansas in round 2.
Common opponents: Southern Illinois: UNLV defeated So Illinois at home by 9 in late November; UNI swept the Salukis – winning by 12 in Illinois in early January and then squeaking out a 5-pt in at home in early February.
Wyoming: UNLV had no problem sweeping the Cowboys, by 28 on the road and then 18 at home, Northern Iowa was equally harsh, with an 18 point home win.
Instructive Games: After the emotional rush of an electric crowd and a win over BYU, UNLV came back and gave the Mountain West tourney title away to San Diego St, losing by 10 in an ugly 55-45 game that one worries might carry over to the tournament. Pretty much if Northern Iowa can ugly it up, UNLV may struggle (see earlier 68-58 loss to the Aztecs, 67-56 loss to Southern California). On the other hand, UNLV had some quality wins this year, over Louisville (they of the Syracuse sweep), at tournament #3 seed, New Mexico, a 10 point win over SD St in Las Vegas, and a pair of wins over BYU.
Northern Iowa doesn’t have the same caliber on their slate, minus a 17 point home win (82 points!) over Buffet favorite and tourney 13 seed, Siena and a 9 point home win over Old Dominion. In fact, their occasional struggles on the road (losses to Wichita St, Bradley, Evansville) is a cause for concern.
Buffet Analysis: Wow. Tough. Back and forth over this one … but the potential for UNLV’s offense to go in the tank is sticking out, and Northern Iowa’s lack of care if it happens to them when it comes to ultimate outcome of game (they can find a win to win either way) tips the scales just slightly in favor of Northern Iowa.
Buffet’s Line: Northern Iowa -1.5
Opening Odds: PICK ‘EM
Michigan State v. New Mexico St
Good year to be a D-1 college basketball outfit in New Mexico, huh?This was actually one of the Buffet’s prouder 13 Days of Conference tourney week calls – there’s always shenanigans in the WAC (how many times have we had to sweat out whether Bernard Rock’s alma mater would get the at-large call come selection Sunday, just slightly more times than the Buffet has won $$$ beating on the Aggies and Rock in the tourney (yes, 2000, a +18 line versus Connecticut came through, as did the +9.5 line versus Ohio State (an underrated multi-timed upset victim in modern days – sort of like UofA in the early to mid 1990s) in 2001), where were we? Oh yeah, New Mexico St vs. Michigan State and WAC tourney shenanigans – just before the start of the WAC tourney, the Buffet correctly predicted a vastly-improved and reliable betting target New Mexico St for the tourney victory.The Buffet guarantees that if Michigan St doesn’t absolutely limit them, you will grow to like this team, and with only 1 senior, you just may get the chance regardless of outcome. A take-off of the 7 seconds or less Suns, they love to get the ball hoisted in the air early in the offense and make the defense focus from the start.A different team once the academically ineligible “Give me my name back” Troy Gillenwater became eligible, they won a pair of classics in the B.L.C. last this past weekend that makes them a momentum-target. Jahmar Young can flat out score, and on defense, N.Mexico St is all about pressure, trapping and making people uncomfortable. Much like the man sitting next the Buffet’s editor on the airplane, who has fallen asleep on his shoulder no less than 5 times during this trip.
The Big 10 does not get a lot of respect among the Buffet’s readers. Not that it’s a poor conference, but the style of play doesn’t inspire a ton of admiration. But if you can’t respect what Tom Izzo can do with 12 basketball players, then you ought to find something else to follow. Cool stat? Not only is Michigan St the only team to appear in 5 of the last 11 final fours (only reprinted that stat because its ridiculous, how many different ways can we spin that and have a new team as the “only”), but the true cool fact: ever 4 year player Izzo has ever signed as a recruit has played in a Final Four.Thisyear, he has taken a team riddled with injuries, inconsistent play by team leaders, a lack of frontcourt scoring punch, and far less depth than last year’s final four team and still powered to a 24-8 record a share of the regular season Big 10 title.The motion offense is an art when run well by the Spartans, and Kalin Lucas can do just that, and a tough defense mixed with a “everybody rebounds” approach – but the Spartans have question marks surrounding them, a heavy reliance on Lucas, discord among the players (Chris Allen was suspended to start the Big 10 tournament), and that makes them ripe for a circus game with New Mexico State.
Common Opponents: None.
New Mexico St. is a tough team to figure – won 2 of 3 from Utah State, split a home and home with UTEP (the road team winning each time), but lost a pair of 32-point decisions (1 to tourney bound St. Mary’s and the other to 2009-2010 struggler UCLA (at the height of their struggles in mid-December) … meanwhile Michigan St took care of business for the most part, but had random struggles, including a 2-4 stretch after a 9-0 conference start.The Buffet says Michigan St advances, but gets a bit of a scare in the process.
Buffet’s Line: Michigan St. -6
Opening Odds: Michigan state -12
*In the interest of time, and given the fact that the Buffet is in Japan, the analysis is about to pay the price, with shorter blurbs leading to the pics.
Houston v. Maryland
Houston is your typical conference tournament hero. They are just one week removed from playing really well, so the tendency is to overvalue them.Aubrey Coleman is great, but it turns out they really aren’t that good – and neither, really, was Conference USA this year. A lot of turnovers contribute to this, plus Grevis Vazquez is pretty great too, and he leads a team that won its conference (a better conference) over more than a 3-game period.The thing is, Maryland does really blow people out, and Houston doesn’t get blown out, so you could be looking a points spread upset, even though I don’t expect Maryland to be upset where it matters, in the final score.
Buffet’s Line: Maryland -7
Opening Odds: Maryland -9
San Diego St. v. Tennessee: Go to give it to the Aztecs, this team is probably less talented overall than last year’s NCAA snubbed team, but facing another bubble decision headed into the MWC tourney, this defensive-minded squad, an excellent coaching job from Steve Fisher, (heretofore that would be read as an oxymoron) went in and won the tournament, beating UNLV on their home floor – and Tennessee looked vulnerable in the SEC tournament.But then again, (see: Maryland v. Houston), they also looked pretty dominant blowing out SEC final qualifier Mississippi St in the season finale (probably what kept Miss State from the tournament) and the Buffet is still mindful of their strength in sports crisis, banding together amidst injury and suspension following the New Year’s Eve Guns & Limo Fiasco, to beat the #1 team in the nation.
Another thing to consider – while a real talent, DJ Gay is a wingman forced to play the point because of personnel – that and SD State propensity to turn the ball over could be trouble when facing Tennessee’s pressure D. What could keep SD State in it? Their ferocious rebounding. They are playing some good ball right now, and has the Buffet starting to hedge upon though. But we’ll stay with it..
Buffet’s Line: Tennessee -3
Opening Odds: Tennessee -3.5
Ohio University v. Georgetown
While Ohio has solid guard play (a tournament must) and are a different since DeVaughn Washington returned from suspension (9-3, and one of the 3 losses was in double-OT) BUT, the guard play isn’t particularly good shooting, and the Buffet is still struggling to discover someone who will actually cover Greg Monroe.Although they didn’t fear the Roo, the Bobcats will likely bow to the Hoya.
Buffet’s Odds: Georgetown -12.5
Opening Odds: Georgetown -13.5
Georgia Tech v. Oklahoma St.
An interesting game, featuring a pair of scoring wings plus talented, but foul prone bigs versus a pair of uber-talented bigs with erratic but athletic guards.The tourney is about guards, so normally while I’d take erattica over the parade of fouls that Moses and Pilgrim (those names seem oddly synchronized, don’t they?) are sure to be the Grand Marshalls of, the Buffert can’t ignore than over the course of the season (leading up to the conference tournament especially), Oklahoma State was simply the better team, and James Anderson will be the best player on that court.
Buffet’s Odds: Oklahoma State -1.5
Opening Odds: PICK (has moved to -1.5)
Ohio State v. UCSB
Evan Turner. Evan Turner. Evan Turner.
A deep, talented team with a lock down defender will spell Ohio State’s ouster in march (should anyone fit that description). The Gauchos possess none of those characteristics.
Buffet’s Odds: Ohio State -15.5
Opening Odds: Ohio State -16.5
Kentucky v. East Tenn State
Its nice that ETSU has found a way to dominate a new conference after owning the Southern Conference for all those years.I really hope they found a way to appreciate their success, or that they can find a way to appreciate the success John Wall, DeMarcus Cousins and Co. are going to have in the first round.
Buffet’s Odds: Kentucky -20
Opening Odds: Kentucky -24
Wake Forest v. Texas
A Buffet Gut Feeling: We see Ishmael Smith running circles are Ustin Mas’n (not just no J, no O either), J’Covan Brown, and Jai “maybe Barnes though Kalin was the transfer” Lucas.
But we also see a severely flawed Wake Forest team, and AA-candidate in Damian James, and the fact that Texas did handle the average tournament teams even during their slide, just not complete or fully competent ones.Luckily, for the faithful in Austin – Wake happens to be average.
From an odds standpoint, Texas is a bit overinflated, if it sits at 4 or higher, think about grabbing Wake
Buffet’s Odds: Texas-3
Opening Odds: Texas -4
Temple v. Cornell
Together with Richmond/St. Mary’s, a frustrating matchup that deprives a possible 2nd round from a good team – also a underseeded matchup – both teams are better than the #s next to their name – this will be the type of game where Cornell makes enough shots early to be all over Greg Gumbel’s radar – but ultimately Temple’s D (which is much better than people (especially those who saw the Kansas/Temple game) believe) will take over and this game becomes unwatchable to everyone but Fran Dunphy who loves it.Also, watch for the former assistant subplot between Dunphy and former assistant and Big Red head coach, Steve Donahue.
Buffet Odds: Temple -6.5
Opening Odds: Temple -4
Wofford v. Wisconsin–
Wofford is better than you think, a well-constructed small school basketball team, and their early season results reflect this, playing Pitt tough at home, a nice win over South Carolina, and in a comparison test, Wofford had Michigan St within 2 points with 8:00+ minutes left in East Lansing, whereas Wisconsin lost by 7 there and beat the Spartans at home – what does that mean? Not much, just needed to add infew extra words.We still see the upset here. But then again, you watch Wisconsin play for a bit of time, and you can usually see an upset in their future, and then Bo Ryan doesn’t end up losing in the first round…
Buffet Line: Wofford -2
Opening Odds: Wisconsin -9
Washington v. Marquette
Washington is hot at the right time, a pretty talented team that never took off this year for some reason, and no one loves a close game more than Marquette, but they are the better team, so we’ll stick with the Golden Eages.
Buffet’s Odds: -.5
Opening Odds: -1
Montana v. New Mexico
The 20 point comeback against Weber State was nice, but if you fell down 20 points to Weber State, how far will you fall down to New Mexico? Who is a lot less likely to give the points back like Weber allowed.
Buffet’s Odds: New Mexico -13
Opening Odds: New Mexico -9
Clemson v. Missouri
No Justin Safford = no true covered on Trevor Booker, means the Buffet is foolishly not learning from history and giving the best first half/worst full game NCAA tournament bet 3 years running another shot – simply, this Missou team, Buffet icon Mike Anderson or no Mike Anderson, is not 2009 Missouri.
Buffet’s Odds: Clemson -3.5
Opening Odds: Clemson -1
Morgan St. v. West Virginia
Morgan St is well coached – as evidenced by their ability to score more points, shoot a better FT% and have a higher rebounding margin on the road – but West Virginia is on a mission. We see a double-digit win, but staying more interesting than most people thought and definitely for longer than most people thought.
Buffet’s Odds: W.Virginia -12.5
Opening Odds: W.Virginia -18
Duke v. Arkansas-Pine Bluff
Duke is a bully. This will be a typical Duke first round game, the other team hangs around for a bit, but not long. Everyone you are watching with except the girl who graduated from Duke starts getting their hopes up that Dick Vitale won’t get to talk about his favorite team until the 2010-2011 season, then they’ll turn it on. Kyle Singler will do annoying things, and they’ll win by 20 or so. And no matter what you did, bet on them/bet against them, they will not cover that either, and you’ll be two times the bitterness at duke.
Buffet’s Odds: -23
Opening Odds: Duke -23
California v. Louisville
This is a pair of 2 pretty overrated teams, but three senior guards versus a Louisville team with a coach who often seems like his best efforts were given on the floor of Porcini, and not in getting constant focus for his talented by attention-deficient squad.
Cal restores some pride to the Pac-10.
Buffet’s Odds: California -2.5
Opening Odds: Cal -1
Texas A&M v. Utah St
This has all the makings of a very boring game, given the amount of defense and missed shots both teams like to produce. But A&M has more absolute talent, and that should ultimately carry the day.
Buffet Line: Texas A&M -5.5
Opening Odds: Texas A&M -2
Purdue v. Siena
No Hummel. No Final Four for Purdue. And now E’Tuwan Moore is banged up too? March on Saints.
Buffet Line: Siena -1
Opening Odds: Purdue -3.5
Notre Dame. V Old Dominion
A bit of an upset as the Notre Dame revival closes at the hands of Mark West’s alma mater.
Buffet Odds: Old Dominion -2
Opening Odds: Notre Dame -2
Baylor v. Sam Houston St
Randomly close game as Sam Houston likes Baylor’s preferred pace, when the Bearkats finally hit a dry spell midway through the second half, then Baylor will assert its advantage.
Buffet Odds: Baylor -11
Opening Odds: Baylor -12
Richmond v. St. Mary’s
It annoys the Buffet that these two teams must play each other in the first round, the 3-point shooting/inside/ouside bonanza that is Randy Bennett’s Gaels versus the precision that is Chris Mooney’s Spiders… Frustrating. Richmond’s poise wins it.
Buffet Odds: Richmond -3
Opening Odds: Richmond +1
Robert Morris v. Villanova
Closest thing to a ridiculous upset first two days – RMU can defend the rock, but Nova turns on the heat just in time and will survive to see another day
Buffet Odds: Villanova -8,5
Opening Odds: Villanova -19.5
Syracuse v. Vermont
The game that drips with irony – Vermont is slightly better than your typical 16 seed, but still not nearly as good or even close to as good as Syracuse, no matter how you spell it, with or without Arinze Onuaku.
Buffet Odds: -15.5
Opening Odds: Syracuse -18.5
Florida St. v. Gonzaga
Tough game to call, there’s a lot to like about Florida State, but their season-long results aren’t wow-worthy – Gonzaga looks like a weaker than usual version, but they played a lot of tough competition and Matt Bouldin is a rare underrated star from Spokane. Like the Zags here.
Buffet Odds: Gonzaga -3.5
Opening Odds: PICK
Butler v. UTEP
Diametric opposites should make this game fun, but the length and athleticism up front, should make it the annual 5-12 upset.
Buffet Odds: UTEP -3
Opening Odds: Butler -3
Vanderbilt v. Murray St
The sexy upset pick of 2010 (behind Purdue/Siena, which the Buffet isn’t even sure is an upset anymore), but Vandy is balanced and fared really well against fellow higher seeded tournament teams.Murray St is deep, forces turnovers and can score … but that was all against really weak competition.We’re not seeing the upset here.
Buffet Odds: Vandy -7.5
Opening Odds: Vandy -4.5
Minnesota v. Xavier
Minnesota’s momentum carries, Xavier realizes they overachieved and wait for 2010-11, when they were originally supposed to have their next strong season.
Buffet Odds: Minnesota -2.5
Opening Odds: PICK
Pittsburgh v. Oakland
After watching this offensively challenged (what else is new) Pitt team, its tough to pick them in a double-digit line against anyone.
Buffet Odds: Pittsburgh-9.5
Opening Odds: Pittsburgh -10.5
Kansas St. v. North Texas
Playing in geographic proximity to the Big 12, surely the Mean Green has heard of the accomplishments in Manhattan, Kansas this year. Now they’ll get to experience it firsthand for themselves
