Saturday, March 17, 2012

Bounceback Saturday - If you need it.

The wall to wall insanity of the first days may be over, but the free money isn't.

Game 1: Kansas St. v. Syracuse -5
This one is tough, it's a dangerous road to get too caught up in a bad opening game - hello Syracuse. And remember, Cuse played TERRIBLY the last time Melo was out, and probably propelled Notre Dame to the BE season they had spring boarding off that signature win. But then Syracuse came back and won at Cincinnati and took out West Virginia, I could see a similar reset for the Orange. Kansas State is a tough, deliberate team, who can be mindnumbingly frustrating with their mistakes and we can just see them forcing too many shots and errant passes, together with a public turning on a still deep Syracuse team a little too soon. Take Syracuse minus the 5.

Friday, March 16, 2012

Buffet Day 2

Not a bad day yesterday... some residual Pac12 hate (Dave Rice, you really waited until 7 minutes left to press? Really? Tad Boyle is still deciding today who will play PG for his time) cost us, as did Syracuse's phone in job. But anyway.... some thoughts on today.

The All-psychology parlay
Xavier v. Notre Dame -2 & Florida v. Virginia + 2.5:
It's hard to bet on Xavier. It's like betting on your crazy, oft-drunk uncle who used to play college football. He can be awesome, showing up with gifts, tales of athletic greatness - or he can show up a day late, wasted and tell your kids the trip to Disneyland is off because the park blew up. That's Xavier. We respect Mike Brey, Notre Dame buys in and executes his gameplan well, but they don't have the horses to contain Tu Holloway & Mark Lyons. Well, on paper, because Tu & Mark can harness themselves. We think you stay away - but if you want to throw down somewhere, Xavier is where we lean, they play great man-to-man, so Notre's spread, slow style won't confound them - and we think Lyons, Wells and Holloway are too much and pull through.

Also fun can be the Insane Asylum parlay and double up on Florida-Virginia. Florida seemed to check out in late February, Virginia hasn't beaten a team above ranked 1-100 in the RPI since January and come in losing 5 of 8. A great job by Tony Bennett with 7 scholarship players, but like Irish, but it seems the glue and tape has started to wear thin.

Vermont v. North Carolina -15
Even without Henson, this should be a cover cruise for UNC. Vermont is plagued by periods of no scoring. That does not something you like to see about NC. We see this as a step up game by James Michael McAdoo, as the X Factor to step in for Henson.

Long Island v. Michigan State -19
No one is betting against Tom Izzo. But the Buffet can name you 4 players on Long Island. Julian Boyd, Jamal Olasewere, Kenny Onyechi, and Jason Brickman. The Buffet is obssessed, yes. But we can't name 4 players from Lehigh. (sorry, if such a disappointing reveal has cost us subscribers). Point is, 19 sounds like a lot here, and since the Bookmakers have ruined what was going to be a great Over opportunity by putting it at 152, we are saying people are yelling "Blackbird singing in the dead of night" in Vegas while LIU-Brooklyn puts the fear of death into State and its obnoxious fans, before ultimately losing by 12-15 points.


Wednesday, March 14, 2012

The Buffet Picks the First Round: the Buffet gets to be wrong on the record...

So, yeah, we're 1-1. But, it also took the worst meltdown in NCAA "tournament" (quotes for the fact that we're still not sure yesterday and today is really the NCAA tournament) history. It also took two over the worst extended coaching strategies to get there. Dave Rice to have his BYU team, a decent fast break offense, try to run, run, run with Iona's 1-dimensionally focused fastbreak offense. Last time we saw BYU, they were trying to play an untempo game, with a better opponent, and they were blown out. Fortunately, the chasm between Mark Few and Tim Cluess, a very good recruited, as coaches, is like the difference between a choice cut prime rib streak at a fine steakhouse and the steak on the surf and turf combo at a Reno Baby Reno strip club.

Now, let's take a look at the balance of the games, Line picks only, the Buffet spends too much time decided if Ohio State is going to win by 17, 7 or 777 - often times, this means, we don't focus on whether they will actually win that game (bad example), think more like, we think VCU will cover 6.5 against Wichita St, and hopefully present a solidly compelling reason why - but do we think VCU will upset them? Maybe, maybe not. We just care if the score is 51 (through 57) to 50, Wichita St, and even VCU wins? That's gravy. Also, we obviously do not feel strongly about every game. If we did, we would return from Vegas on more than one occasion in the last 12 years with more than a few dollars in profits. But, like we're about to hear, we feel compelled to bet every game, and guess what never goes well? That strategy.


*Note: Lines are as of 3pm ET, 3/14*

In an event, for entertainment purposes ONLY, here goes the Buffet Thinks Deeply About Lines, 2012:

Since we write this and others (the # of which is questionable) read it, we get to credit ourselves even when the time stamp says we were late. But, let's just say, there was zero question the pick was Vermont. Getting points? Really? Lamar is terrible. Awful. And before I insult a team of hard working kids who overachieved, it's really on their coach. He literally took a program his Dad gave limited legitimacy and a modicum of relevancy to, and tore it shreds. SHREDS. Like your newly created in Sim City when you overdo it on the nuclear power plantage, and your city suffers a nuclear meltdown. What Pat Knight did at TTU is what the animated screen looks like following said meltdown. We might have supported Lamar in this game had they decided to go Bud Kilmer, and Devon Lamb turned to that sound byte loving, substance-free attention whore and said "Only way we're going out on that court tonight is without you" (*All opinions of the Buffet are just that, opinions, and do not necessarily reflect the opinions [but they should] of the Buffet's readership or the good people at www.blogger.com). They didn't, and Four McGlynn. FOUR. YORK. VERMONT. Four McGlynn made them pay.

Game 4. California v. South Florida - another completed game by posting.

Game 5. Colorado St. v Murray St. -4

An interesting match up. You look at the rosters, and see, whoa, Colorado St doesn't have a guy over 6'8 in their rotation, BINGO, this isn't the big bad BCS-school trap everyonen lazy college basketball "analyst" promised all year would doom the Racers. With their tallest major rotation guy at 6'6, Murray St is actually "taller" - Ed Daniel and Aska go 6'7, Colorado St's height figures give you the (mistaken) impression that their game is to get out and run, run, ru. Well, here's assuming Tim Miles learned from his former-MWC brethren's big mistake and doesn't come out trying to run with a far better running team. Also, running isn't Colorado State's game. They are methodical, careful with the ball and try to take advantage of open looks and blown defensive assignments. But, on the flipside, their not much of an opportunistic defense who tries to exploit the mistakes of their opponents. Instead, they pack in a man-to-man and try to dictate tempo through 35 seconds of defensive each trip, gearing up for defensive rebounds, and requiring great outside shooting. On offense, they love the perimeter short, will take teams down who get impatient, jack bad shots, and underestimate Colorado St. Thing is, Murray can be frenetic to a fault, but Colorado State isn't a turnover forcer, and Murray defends the 33, giving up only 29.5% per game to opponents. The biggest thing for the Buffet is Colorado State's road work. Or lack thereof. Colorado State was 6-10 away from home, beating only UTEP (by 3), Air Force (by 10) & Northern Colorado (by 14) on the road, and TCU (by 21), SMU (19) and Jacksonville St (23) on neutral courts. Otherwise they lost 10 times outside of Colorado Springs by an average of 14 points per game (17 when against the top 100, and 18.7 when playing the top 25, like Murray is). Maybe people will be impressed that they beat UNLV, SD St and New Mexico. Tell them that they lost by 23, 10 and 33 to those same 3 teams when they played them not on the Rams own floor). Take Murray. Give the points.

Game 6 - Southern Miss v Kansas St (-5)

Money moving toward So Miss this week, opened at -6, must be the really hot way Southern Miss ended the season, losing to Houston, UTEP, beating Rice by 2, SMU (who fired their coach) by 7, East Carolina by 3 in overtime, which was bookended by a pair of losses to Marshall (a good team, but still, not in the tournament). A more fun matchup would have been Iowa St v Southern Miss - could have pitted Larry Eustachy's band of transfer castoffs and rap sheet dominators versus the Mayor's Merry Band of Transfer Misfits, oh well. This one will be fun too, Southern Miss is a relentless team, using effort and athleticism to mask deficiencies in raw basketball talent, and they are foul drawing outfit. Kansas State is similar - physically, deliberate, and experienced. They lost Jacob Pullen, but bring back many of their 2011 pieces, plus talented (but erratic) freshman PG Angel Rodriguez, and Kansas St plays games like they're daring the opponent to engage in a fist fight. Southern Miss may not posses the strong body of wins, but they certainly won't back down from a fight. They also like to pounce on mistakes and get out and run, so this game may likely come down how calm Rodriguez can keep himself (or how much Frank Martin can froth in AR's face to make him calm down). If he limits his turnovers, and they keep Southern Miss from getting out in transition, the Wildcats should be able to turn them away and win this by 7-10. The X Factor is Jamar Samuels, if he continues his upward trajectory, Kansas State should comfortably cover your line. But, watch out early, if Southern Miss isn't getting pushed around and causing turnovers, pound that second half line, because So Miss can keep it close and Kansas St can get impatient and unravel. Kansas St minus the five.

Game 7 - Davidson at Louisville -7.5

We'll keep this short, we still cannot quite understand how Davidson beat Kansas. Anyone who watched the Southern Conference on the live streaming feed on their computer, while working, a number too large to count, saw that Davidson couldn't put away a Western Illinois team, who may have been playing "inspired" but, how far should that take you? Our guess is the early season puzzlers were the result of not understanding how to play Davidson - a volume shooting team, their shooting percentages don’t really draw your attention, but their status as one of the nations top scoring teams – 37th in adjusted offensive efficiency – does. They like to launch, and don’t care much for defense. It’s an interesting matchup, because Louisville is just the opposite, and can sometimes lead on-lookers to a “stab my own eyes out” impulse response to watching the Cardinals on O. Our thought is athleticism trumps, as Louisville melted down last year to give Morehead St the win, but, appropriately enough (given the coaching matchup) wagers should remember that Kenneth Faried isn’t walking through that door. Here’s the thing, can Louisville win by 8? Games against similarly high schoring teams (that is they like to score, not that they’re similar in style/skill to Davidson) has produced games of 79 (Long Beach), 95 (Memphis), 62 (Kentucky), 84 (Marquette, after only scoring 63 the first time – perhaps they learned). The best model is Wichita St’s – who trounced this Davidson team 91-74 in the Wildcats own gym. Davidson won’t go away, but Louisville seems to have just enough. A close game for longer than those on Louisville will like, ultimately we see about an 11 point Cardinals win. Louisville, give them the points

Game 8 – Montana @ Wisconsin – 9.5

We’re not picking the upset, but we think Montana can hang in this game. Wisconsin likes slow-paced, low scoring affairs – they gave up 65 points or more only 4 times (going 1-3). And their unique style offers so many opportunities for confusion, and it works quite often. This game should be interesting, Montana likes a faster pace, but also only gave up 62 points per game, so if Wisconsin slows them down and they suddenly see less shots for themselves, they’re won’t be panic because they know they can keep the Badgers off the scoreboard as well. And we like X-factor Mathias Ward, the best kept secret from the North, and he exploded in the BST, leading the Grizzlies in scoring twice, despite not doing since since 2011. Also Kareem Jamar and Will Cherry are a backcourt that rivals any. The big downside – no one in Montana’s top 7 go bigger than Ward’s 6’7, and we worry about foul trouble in a surefire slow it down, Bo Ryan wrestling match. If this game ends up double-digits on your board, we think Montana will give you a shot some $$ that others don’t see. But, under 9, and you’re foul trouble from a losing ticket. At 9.5, we think we like Montana, but that’s only for the sake of not hedging on the Blog, come tomorrow we’ll wait to see where things level out. The deciding factor might be schedule – Montana didn’t play anyone, Wisconsin did, so either Wayne Tinkle’s squad just won’t know any better or they’ll be in awe of the big bad wolf from their section (north, just so you know) of the USA

Game 9 - BYU v Marquette -6

Buffet still doesn’t think much of BYU, except they are clearly resilient, have a coach who may have made an egregious strategy error, but is the anti-Mike D’Antoni, and will admit mistake, correct flaws in game plan and coaching strategy, and end up turning the tide on the biggest comeback in NCAA “tournament” history – but here’s the thing. Marquette is like Iona. Great backcourt, run teams to death. BYU was ran to death on Tuesday, but it was a Wesley, you know, the Dread Pirate Roberts, dead from Princess Bride – they were only mostly dead – and came back. Don’t see Marquette giving them the same chance, especially since BYU, even though they had nearly 2 weeks off between their last two games, surely have to hit a holy shit, we made a 25 point game back, Marquette is relentless, we’re exhausted, wall at some point. Take Marquette, give the 6 - which by the way, we’d be inclined to take without the extenuating factors. Iona is now BYU’s only good win this season (because, as stated, Gonzaga doesn’t count, since BYU lost to them 2 other occasions, including blowout fashion on a neutral court). Oh, and not that it’s totally conclusive, because it is singling out one game for each team, many moons ago, but BYU lost by 17 on a neutral court to Wisconsin (rethinking that Montana pick, aren’t you) and Marquette beat the same Badger squad, in Madison 61-54 (see TAKE THE UNDER, Wisconsin even slowed down Marquette).

Game 10 – UNC-Asheville v Syracuse -15

There’s not a ton of science here – UNC-Asheville has some talent players given their school – and their results don’t scream 16 seed: lost by 16 at home to UNC, lost by 10 on a neutral court v Connecticut, 9 at NC State – but those were in November. On BB, they lost by 19 at Ohio. Syracuse with or without FABulous Student are not Ohio*. This line has been moving towards the Bulldogs, nothing like a nice ill-timed suspension to let the rest of us reap some free money. Now, people wonder if Syracuse blows people out. Well, against the teams they faced ranked 100+ (Asheville is 104) – they won by an average of 24 points, just the top 100, you ask – 20.7, against nonBE teams? 27.3. We think Syracuse will have something to prove, with lots of people jumping on Kansas State! Instead of them… Oh, wait, Buffet – what about how they did without Fab? Well, they did lose. In South Bend, to a rapidly rising Irish team, that played just the most flawless game played by a team playing the role of 20 years playing like their the over-40 entrant in a Rec league, who foul, drain 3s and methodically (but effectively) suck the life out of a game, and then beat Cincinnati & West Virginia at home - Syracuse is the pick, and America is helping you.

*Apologies to David Friedman, D.J. Cooper and Gary Trent

Game 11 - Long Beach State v. New Mexico

February 15, 2012. The day after Valentine’s Day. The day after Arizona turned 100 years old. The day after one of the Buffet’s original subscribers turned 34. But also the day the Buffet stood up and took notice that New Mexico – to the Buffet, they were randomly favored at SD State, and the Buffet wanted to jump on the Aztecs immediately. A 77-67 New Mexico wire to wire win later, we believed. Now Casper Ware, in him we always believed, which makes this prediction somewhat to very biased. But, here’s the thing. If Larry Anderson plays, we have and always like LBSU. These are very stylistically different teams. UNM is a deliberate, efficient, sharing team that have no one averaging 13 or more, but they pound the glass, play well in rhythm and are methodical and effective. LBSU plays in transition, Casper Ware starts feeling it, and his outstanding supporting cast: Phelps, Robinson, Caffey, Anderson, Ennis .. all five starters received postseason awards from the Big West. This team won at the Zoo, made UNC, Kansas, San Diego St, Creighton all hit their limits on their own floors – they have been through battles and know what it’s like to be on the wrong side, and if not dealing with Larry Anderson’s injury, they would have 1 loss, on a Doug McDermott miracle since 2011. We like this team, so our pick needs a grain of salt, but if Anderson plays – go 49ers, if not, the Lobos and round 2 will become close friends.

In the interest of time, we will give our picks for the remaining games, which means, sans analysis, you should trust your own judgment and use us as a tiebreaker, at best.

Game 12 – Harvard v. Vanderbilt, -7

Buffet really likes Vandy here

Game 13 – Western Kentucky v Kentucy -25

Can you really bet on WKU?

Game 14 – VCU v Wichita St -6.5

Just done see VCU losing by 7 points, this does not change the Buffet’s belief that Wichita St is a final four contender.

Game 15 – West Virginia v Gonzaga

Toughest game of the day. Gonzaga is better, they fill out every position, come up big in tough spots – but Huggins maximizes in the tournament, and that could be Jones & Bryant do more than sound like a law firm for the next 4 days. Pick is Gonzaga, but tepidly.

Game 16 UConn v Iowa St

Iowa St with the upset, it’ll be treated big, Calhoun's back, defending champs, etc - UConn has some talented people, but a their idea of how to bring them together cohesively as a team after Kemba has had mixed results. We do like how they looked at the end of the year, and the emotional lift of Calhoun being back - that said, Royce White is a bona fide star, watching him play in the variety of positions that they've asked of him will entertain you to no end. You'll forget that the Mayor pulled a Governor Barbour and wiped the slate clean on a 1000 transfers in order to boost his coaching record, because they're fun, they work hard and honestly strive to earn the reprieve. Give it to them, watch as Lamb and Napier fight for "most shots taken" and the Cyclones get taken lightly, and Scott Christopherson shoots 3s to make 'em pay for it.

The last paragraph was sponsored by our good friends at Kettle One. It is why it might not make sense, or weirdly disregard a strong UConn team. Oh well, we'll stick to it. The rest of the game to be previewed later and/or simply be listed with a preferred pick and no analysis due to time.

Tuesday, March 13, 2012

The Buffet goes Jimmy the Greek (Unracist Version)

Is the Buffet dating itself with Jimmy the Greek references?

It's that time again - for the Buffet to completely misfire on its betting projections, but let's take a look anyway.

Today's games are too soon to give a full/complete breakdown, so we'll just say, that we like:

Miss Valley St +4 over Western Kentucky. WKy plays in a stronger conference, but the Delta Devils non-conference schedule, those tough road games, the fact that WKU was only average against said stronger conference and terrible before it, suggest MVSU is far more battle tested, a bit underseeded even being in this game, and has something to prove tonight.

Iona/BYU. We want to love the over - basically Vegas just took their neutral court averages and put it O/U, so we like it, lukewarmly, expected it to be down - but then again if are lukewarm and like, then it probably makes it a perfect line, but in support of the over, Iona may be motivated, but they didn't suddenly learn to execute team defensively philosophies. But, man, maybe we're underselling this BYU team, but didn't see much from them (yes, they beat Gonzaga, but, yes, Gonzaga showed you what that meant by drilling the Cougars (not Brandon Davies, but still) in Vegas during the WCC tourney. We see a nothing-to-lose Iona team granted a second life after they put up a dud against a Derek Needham-less Fairfield team. We'll take Iona +1 1/2

More picks to come... just a appetite whetter. Or, we get 'em both wrong, and nobody turns back.
Different thoughts, analysis or projections ALWAYS welcomed in the comments section.

The Buffet goes Jimmy the Greek (Unracist Version)

Is the Buffet dating itself with Jimmy the Greek references?

It's that time again - for the Buffet to completely misfire on its betting projections, but let's take a look anyway.

Today's games are too soon to give a full/complete breakdown, so we'll just say, that we like:

Miss Valley St +4 over Western Kentucky. WKy plays in a stronger conference, but the Delta Devils non-conference schedule, those tough road games, the fact that WKU was only average against said stronger conference and terrible before it, suggest MVSU has something to prove tonight.

Iona/BYU. We love the over. I mean Iona may be motivated, but they didn't suddenly learn to execute team defensively philosophies. Maybe we're underselling this BYU team, but didn't see much from them (yes, they beat Gonzaga, but, yes, Gonzaga showed you what that meant by drilling the Cougars (not Brandon Davies, but still) in Vegas during the WCC tourney. We see a nothing-to-lose Iona team granted a second life after they put up a dud against a Derek Needham-less Fairfield team. We'll take Iona +1 1/2

More picks to come... just a appetite whetter. Or, we get 'em both wrong, and nobody turns back.
Different thoughts, analysis or projections ALWAYS welcomed in the comments section.

Sunday, March 11, 2012

The Buffet's Last Stand

Ok, we've ruminated, thought, and we'll probably be wrong A LOT.

But here it is, the Final Buffetology of 2012. Michigan State, winner of this Big10 championship, finishes in the #3 overall position, and a 1 seed. North Carolina, despite losing to Florida St (struggling to beat a desperate NC State team who was fighting to make the tournament does not factor in), gets a John Henson discount, and holds on, plus their Michigan State neutral court win just got another boost, but just barely to the last #1, just ahead of Kansas, the regular season Big 12 champ, who is oddly hurt by Jared Sullinger missing that game, because it cost a chance to beat a real Ohio State team and not a Ohio State team that was still good, but looked more like a 6-7 seed than the #1 seed contending and #2 seed Buckeyes.

Missouri gets a big look, but their 294th ranked schedule outside of the B12 is just too much for the Buffet to push them up. The Committee may, but we stick by this decision.

At the bottom, we've flip flopped all day long, but California as the best team out of the Pac-12, they lost the conference by 1 game, BUT, it wasn't a true round robin, and they beat the champs in their only matchup, so we give them one of the final four at-larges, to go with NC State, who really performed when the chips were down, and overall their profile equals or is better than the others. BYU took a major nose dive once resumes were closely examined, they just didn't do very much AT ALL, and their big win, Gonzaga, is negated heavily by losing two other times to the Bulldogs, especially in blowout fashion on a neutral court, and they end up in the final four in.

Finally, it's Seton Hall v Drexel. And for us, Drexel won, they won a lot. Seton Hall, though, just had better wins. And Drexel's winning streak makes some people mask the fact that they lose to Norfolk, Georgia St and Delaware, where their top wins were just VCU, George Mason, and Cleveland State. Just having trouble getting over that. Buffet has no problem giving one a plate and not the other, and personally, seeing what Drexel can do, and what that winning streak did mean, would be much more rewarding as a fan, but not sure that will play out.

Here's the final Buffetology, its not an exact attempt to mirror the Committee, and no that's not a disclaimer if we get it way wrong, but we don't see the value in Bracketing, because that causes you to flip seed and jostle teams for hypothetical matchups that won't likely take place. Instead, we'll show you seed and their S-Curve rank, and if you want to openly criticize the Buffet, wait for the Hardcore Brackets show on Tru TV, when the committee gives their final S-Curve, and then you can rain hate...

Buffetology (Final)
1 Kentucky 1 Auto
Syracuse 2 At-Large
Michigan State 3 Auto
North Carolina 4 At-Large
2 Kansas 5 At-Large
Ohio State 6 At-Large
Missouri 7 Auto
Duke 8 At-Large
3 Baylor 9 At-large
Marquette 10 At-large
Michigan 11 At-large
Georgetown 12 At-large
4 Louisville 13 Auto
Wisconsin 14 At-large
Indiana 15 At-large
Florida St 16 Auto
5 Murray St 17 Auto
Wichita St 18 At-large
New Mexico 19 Auto
Vanderbilt 20 Auto
6 Temple 21 At-large
Florida 22 At-large
Creighton 23 Auto
UNLV 24 At-large
7 San Diego St 25 At-large
Memphis 26 Auto
Cincinnati 27 At-large
Notre Dame 28 At-large
8 Saint Mary's 29 Auto
Gonzaga 30 At-large
Iowa St 31 At-large
Kansas St 32 At-large
9 Alabama 33 At-large
Purdue 34 At-large
Connecticut 35 At-large
West Virginia 36 At-large
10 Virginia 37 At-large
Harvard 38 Auto
Southern Miss 39 At-large
Saint Louis 40 At-large
11 Xavier 41 Auto
Texas 42 At-large
Colorado St 43 At-large
South Fla 44 At-large
12 VCU 45 Auto
California 46 At-large/Play-in
North Carolina St 47 At-large/Play-in
Seton Hall 48 At-large/Play-in
BYU 50 At-large/Play-in
Long Beach St 49 Auto
13 Colorado 58 Auto
St. Bonaventure 64 Auto
South Dakota St 65 Auto
Davidson 68 Auto
14 Ohio 72 Auto
Belmont 73 Auto
New Mexico St 74 Auto
Montana 75 Auto
15 Lehigh 76 Auto
Detroit 77 Auto
Long Island 78 Auto
Loyola MD 79 Auto
16 UNC-Asheville 80 Auto
Lamar 81 Auto
Norfolk St 82 Auto/Play-in
Vermont 83 Auto/Play-in
Mississippi Valley St 84 Auto/Play-in
Western Kentucky 85 Auto/Play-in
Last Four Out: Drexel 51 Stuck in the Waiting Line
Miami Fl 52 Stuck in the Waiting Line
Washington 53 Stuck in the Waiting Line
Mississippi St 54 Stuck in the Waiting Line
Next Four Out: Iona 55 Stuck in the Waiting Line
Northwestern 56 Stuck in the Waiting Line
Ole Miss 69 Stuck in the Waiting Line
Marshall 61 Stuck in the Waiting Line
Last 9 consider Tennessee 62 Stuck in the Waiting Line
Arizona 63 Stuck in the Waiting Line
Massachusetts 63 Stuck in the Waiting Line
Oral Roberts 66 Stuck in the Waiting Line
Nevada 67 Stuck in the Waiting Line
Oregon 69 Stuck in the Waiting Line
Saint Joseph's 70 Stuck in the Waiting Line
UCF 71 Stuck in the Waiting Line

The Buffet's Last Stand

Ok, we've ruminated, thought, and we'll probably be wrong A LOT.

But here it is, the Final Buffetology of 2012. ,winner of this Big10 championship, finishes in the #3 overall position, and a 1 seed. North Carolina, despite losing to Florida St (struggling to beat a desperate NC State team who was fighting to make the tournament does not factor in), gets a John Henson discount, and holds on, but just barely to the last #1, just ahead of Kansas, the regular season Big 12 champ, who is oddly hurt by Jared Sullinger missing that game, because it cost a chance to beat a real Ohio State team and not a Ohio State team that was still good, but looked more like a 6-7 seed than the #1 seed contending and #2 seed Buckeyes.

Missouri gets a big look, but their 294th ranked schedule outside of the B12 is just too much for the Buffet to push them up. The Committee may, but we stick by this decision.

At the bottom, we've flip flopped all day long, but California as the best team out of the Pac-12, they lost the conference by 1 game, BUT, it wasn't a true round robin, and they beat the champs in their only matchup, so we give them one of the final four at-larges, to go with NC State, who really performed when the chips were down, and overall their profile equals or is better than the others. BYU took a major nose dive once resumes were closely examined, they just didn't do very much AT ALL, and their big win, Gonzaga, is negated heavily by losing two other times to the Bulldogs, especially in blowout fashion on a neutral court, and they end up in the final four in.

Finally, it's Seton Hall v Drexel. And for us, Drexel won, they won a lot. Seton Hall, though, just had better wins. And Drexel's winning streak makes some people mask the fact that they lose to Norfolk, Georgia St and Delaware, where their top wins were just VCU, George Mason, and Cleveland State. Just having trouble getting over that. Buffet has no problem giving one a plate and not the other, and personally, seeing what Drexel can do, and what that winning streak did mean, would be much more rewarding as a fan, but not sure that will play out.

Here's the final Buffetology, its not an exact attempt to mirror the Committee, and no that's not a disclaimer if we get it way wrong, but we don't see the value in Bracketing, because that causes you to flip seed and jostle teams for hypothetical matchups that won't likely take place. Instead, we'll show you seed and their S-Curve rank, and if you want to openly criticize the Buffet, wait for the Hardcore Brackets show on Tru TV, when the committee gives their final S-Curve, and then you can rain hate...

Buffetology (Final)
1 Kentucky 1 Auto
Syracuse 2 At-Large
Michigan State 3 Auto
North Carolina 4 At-Large
2 Kansas 5 At-Large
Ohio State 6 At-Large
Missouri 7 Auto
Duke 8 At-Large
3 Baylor 9 At-large
Marquette 10 At-large
Michigan 11 At-large
Georgetown 12 At-large
4 Louisville 13 Auto
Wisconsin 14 At-large
Indiana 15 At-large
Florida St 16 Auto
5 Murray St 17 Auto
Wichita St 18 At-large
New Mexico 19 Auto
Vanderbilt 20 Auto
6 Temple 21 At-large
Florida 22 At-large
Creighton 23 Auto
UNLV 24 At-large
7 San Diego St 25 At-large
Memphis 26 Auto
Cincinnati 27 At-large
Notre Dame 28 At-large
8 Saint Mary's 29 Auto
Gonzaga 30 At-large
Iowa St 31 At-large
Kansas St 32 At-large
9 Alabama 33 At-large
Purdue 34 At-large
Connecticut 35 At-large
West Virginia 36 At-large
10 Virginia 37 At-large
Harvard 38 Auto
Southern Miss 39 At-large
Texas 40 At-large
11 Xavier 41 Auto
Saint Louis 42 At-large
Colorado St 43 At-large
South Fla 44 At-large
12 VCU 45 Auto
California 46 At-large/Play-in
North Carolina St 47 At-large/Play-in
Seton Hall 48 At-large/Play-in
BYU 50 At-large/Play-in
Long Beach St 49 Auto
13 Colorado 58 Auto
St. Bonaventure 64 Auto
South Dakota St 65 Auto
Davidson 68 Auto
14 Ohio 72 Auto
Belmont 73 Auto
New Mexico St 74 Auto
Montana 75 Auto
15 Lehigh 76 Auto
Detroit 77 Auto
Long Island 78 Auto
Loyola MD 79 Auto
16 UNC-Asheville 80 Auto
Lamar 81 Auto
Norfolk St 82 Auto/Play-in
Vermont 83 Auto/Play-in
Mississippi Valley St 84 Auto/Play-in
Western Kentucky 85 Auto/Play-in
Last Four Out: Drexel 51 Stuck in the Waiting Line
Miami Fl 52 Stuck in the Waiting Line
Washington 53 Stuck in the Waiting Line
Mississippi St 54 Stuck in the Waiting Line
Next Four Out: Iona 55 Stuck in the Waiting Line
Northwestern 56 Stuck in the Waiting Line
Ole Miss 69 Stuck in the Waiting Line
Marshall 61 Stuck in the Waiting Line
Last 9 consider Tennessee 62 Stuck in the Waiting Line
Arizona 63 Stuck in the Waiting Line
Massachusetts 63 Stuck in the Waiting Line
Oral Roberts 66 Stuck in the Waiting Line
Nevada 67 Stuck in the Waiting Line
Oregon 69 Stuck in the Waiting Line
Saint Joseph's 70 Stuck in the Waiting Line
UCF 71 Stuck in the Waiting Line

On the Fourteenth and FINAL Day of Conference Tourneys, the Buffet gave to me... Buffet gav

The ball is tipped
and there you are
you're running for your life
you're a shooting star
And all the years
no one knows
just how hard you worked
but now it shows...
(in) ONE SHINING MOMENT, IT'S ALL ON THE LINE
ONE SHINING MOMENT, THERE FROZEN IN TIME

But time is short
and the road is long
in the blinking of an eye
ah that moment's gone
And when it's done
win or lose
you always did your best
cuz inside you knew...
(that) ONE SHINING MOMENT, YOU REACHED DEEP INSIDE
ONE SHINING MOMENT, YOU KNEW YOU WERE ALIVE

Feel the beat of your heart
feel the wind in your face
it's more than a contest
it's more than a race...

And when it's done
win or lose
you always did your best
cuz inside you knew...
(that) ONE SHINING MOMENT, YOU REACHED FOR THE SKY
ONE SHINING MOMENT, YOU KNEW
ONE SHINING MOMENT, YOU WERE WILLING TO TRY
ONE SHINING MOMENT....


It's Selection Day people...

Where are we?

We've got three pretty phenomenal games going. At time of this Buffet.

Florida St leads UNC by 1 with 3.3 seconds left
and THE BONNIES are up by 10 with 1:20 left! Yes, the Bonnies.

Here is the field, without presuming anything about the finish to these games:
1 Kentucky 1 Auto
Syracuse 2 At-Large
North Carolina 3 Auto
Ohio State 4 Auto
2 Kansas 5 At-Large
Missouri 6 Auto
Michigan St 7 At-Large
Duke 8 At-Large
3 Baylor 9 At-large
Marquette 10 At-large
Michigan 11 At-large
Georgetown 12 At-large
4 Louisville 13 Auto
Wisconsin 14 At-large
Indiana 15 At-large
Florida St 16 At-large
5 Murray St 17 Auto
Wichita St 18 At-large
New Mexico 19 Auto
Vanderbilt 20 Auto
6 Florida 21 At-large
Temple 22 At-large
Creighton 23 Auto
UNLV 24 At-large
7 San Diego St 25 At-large
Memphis 26 Auto
Cincinnati 27 At-large
Notre Dame 28 At-large
8 Saint Mary's 29 Auto
Gonzaga 30 At-large
Iowa St 31 At-large
Kansas St 32 At-large
9 Alabama 33 At-large
Purdue 34 At-large
Connecticut 35 At-large
Saint Louis 36 At-large
10 West Virginia 37 At-large
Virginia 38 At-large
Harvard 39 Auto
Southern Miss 40 At-large
11 Xavier 41 Auto
Texas 42 At-large
Colorado St 43 At-large
South Fla 44 At-large
12 VCU 45 Auto
North Carolina St 46 At-large
California 47 At-large/Play-in
BYU 50 At-large/Play-in
Long Beach St 48 Auto
13 Seton Hall 49 At-large/Play-in
Drexel 51 At-large/Play-in
Colorado 52 Auto
South Dakota St 65 Auto
Davidson 71 Auto
14 Ohio 72 Auto
Belmont 73 Auto
New Mexico St 74 Auto
Montana 75 Auto
15 Lehigh 76 Auto
Detroit 77 Auto
Long Island 78 Auto
Loyola MD 79 Auto
16 UNC-Asheville 80 Auto
Lamar 81 Auto
Norfolk St 82 Auto/Play-in
Vermont 83 Auto/Play-in
Mississippi Valley St 84 Auto/Play-in
Western Kentucky 85 Auto/Play-in
Last Four Out: Miami Fl 53 Stuck in the Waiting Line
Washington 54 Stuck in the Waiting Line
Mississippi St 55 Stuck in the Waiting Line
Iona 56 Stuck in the Waiting Line
Next Four Out: Northwestern 57 Stuck in the Waiting Line
Ole Miss 58 Stuck in the Waiting Line
Marshall 59 Stuck in the Waiting Line
Tennessee 60 Stuck in the Waiting Line
Last 9 consider Arizona 61 Stuck in the Waiting Line
Massachusetts 62 Stuck in the Waiting Line
Oral Roberts 63 Stuck in the Waiting Line
Nevada 64 Stuck in the Waiting Line
Oregon 66 Stuck in the Waiting Line
Saint Joseph's 67 Stuck in the Waiting Line
UCF 68 Stuck in the Waiting Line
LSU 69 Stuck in the Waiting Line
Maryland 70 Stuck in the Waiting Line

If St. Bon wins, Drexel would be out and NC State would go to the play in
We'll have to give a long look to bumping UNC to the #2 line
Vandy could get a bump up

We'll revisit during the Big 10 final