Keep checking in with the Buffet all day today - the Weekend preview will develop as the games do. Finals will be posted, as well as their updated conference positioning, and for games in progress/upcoming, a full preview job will be done. All Waiting Line teams will be profiled with their current positioning and tournament prospects. But, to spare inboxes, I will only send out one link now and then another at the conclusion of the blog.
America East Conference
Hartford (8-20, 7-8, 312) @ Boston U (15-15, 11-4, 186) - 3:00pm ET
4 conference games remain in the AmEast, Boston U's seed is locked in at 3, they are 1 game back of Vermont, but lost twice to the Cadamounts this season.
Hartford, is a little tougher to predict - they are at their seed ceiling, Albany finished their regular season at 9-7, so Hartford, the tourney host, will be no higher than a 5 seed. With Maine and UNH lingering at 6-8, a win tonight at BU will hold their seed and avoid a second round (1st round is the 8/9 game (matchup with the top 3 seeds). Should they lose, here are the scenarios:
3 way tie at 7-9: (5) Hartford; (6) Maine; (7) New Hampshire (Hartford 3-1, Maine 2-2, UNH 1-3)
2 way tie at 7-9: Hartford & Maine: (5) Hartford; (6) Maine (Hartford 2-0 v. Maine)
2 way tie at 7-9: Hartford & UNH: (5) UNH; (6) Hartford (1-1 season series, both 0-2 v. Stony Brook; UNH 1-1 & Hartford 0-2 v. Vermont)
Maryland-BC (4-24, 3-12, 338) @ Vermont (19-11, 12-3, 153) - 1:00pm ET
UMBC with be the 8 seed in the AmEast, and will be playing in the 8/9 play-in game on Thursday, March 1 at Hartford's Chase Arena against clinched #9 seed Binghamton (yes, the very Binghamton who was 0-27 on the season before an seemingly impossible upset over then top seeded Vermont) rose them to 1-27.
Speaking of Vermont. Yes, Tom Brennan is hiding his head in shame. With 2 games left, and owning the tie breaker by virtue of their season sweep of BU, Vermont had the tournament top seed locked up. Then they went to Binghamton, NY, to face a winless Bearcat squad, and lost. Now, they can only hope to avoid losing to both the 9 and 8 seeds in succession, and for the Seawolves to sleepwalk through their home finale against Maine.
Final: Vermont 80 - UMBC 49
Atlantic Coast Conference
Maryland (16-11, 6-7, 85) @ Georgia Tech (9-18, 2-11, 185)
It's that time of year, you know, when a fringe tournament team wins a game against another middling tournament team, and because we are evaluating teams by the second, we immediately want to anoint them as the newest at-large party crasher. Usually, this is reserved for Pac12(10) teams and ridicule them at will. This year, it will happen almost everywhere, and it starts in the ACC with Maryland. The Terps have avoided the bad loss this season, which is probably the best thing you can say about them. Their mid-season 3 game losing streak (and 5 out of 8) seemed to doom them. But, a weak bubble, the strength of good scheduling and ability to avoid the albatross loss, puts them in an interesting position. They'll need to win both road games (this one and @UNC) as well as close out at home versus BC, (UNC win is unlikely) and then make a nice run (translation: no first round crashing and burning) in the ACC tournament. At 6-7, Maryland is pretty close to locked into a 6-7 seed, which would allow them to potentially avoid Duke/UNC until the semis (which is part of healthy, tournament hopes prescription - on the latest Buffetology, Maryland sits at 73. Which means they have work to do, and basically the third 15 seed as of now.
North Carolina St. (18-10, 7-6, 62) @ Clemson (14-13, 6-7, 147)
What's up free fall, thy name is NC State. At 18-7 and 7-3 in conference, NC State looked like the days of Sidney Lowe and his egregiously ugly red sport coats were long gone, replaced by Alabama cast-off Mike Gottfried, with a bench that includes former Charlotte underacheiver, Bobby Lutz - then Duke came to Raleigh, outlasted the Pack 78-73, and NC State just stopped getting wins over tournament teams. Suddenly, you look back over their resume, and that just was the case - wins over Miami FL (end of Waiting Line), Maryland (end of Waiting Line), Texas (end of waiting line) and losses to: Vanderbilt, Indiana, Syracuse, UNCx2, Virginia, Duke, and UNC, and suddenly, only Texas looks like a team on their resume that they defeated. Now they have a chance to sweep Miami (which, double-edged sword, would probably burst Miami's bubble) and nothing else until the tournament. What they can't do is lose. No more. Win their last 3 games (this + Miami & Virginia Tech) and then, as the 4 or 5 seed, beat likely 4/5 seed Virginia and then NC State will find themselves with a chance first the top seed in the ACC to seal a bid, or, if they lose competitively, have a strong argument for one.
Andre Young & Tanner Smith were supposed to have brighter senior seasons, not seasons where they sat at 6-7 with an astronomical RPI and zero non-conference wins of note (but lots of appalling non-conference losses). This team could make an ACC seeding run, as they face 2 teams ahead of them in the race (this NC St team, and a game at Florida St, sandwiched around Virginai Tech), to pull them up from their current 8th place spot. I wouldn't bet on it. But they have a good amount of talent, Brad Brownell just hasn't tied it together like he normally does, YES. Conference tournaments have a weird way of becoming that ribbon.
Final: And they lost.... Clemson 72 NC State 69 ot
Boston College (8-19, 3-10, 223) @ Wake Forest (12-15, 3-10, 159)
Not much to see here, sorry alums of these schools. Tied for 11th and 12th, with a limited shot at upward mobility, this basically determines who plays Miami and who plays Maryland. Chances are both will lose to both.
Final: Wake Forest 85 Boston College 56
Virginia Tech (15-13, 4-9, 108) @ Duke (24-4, 11-2, 2)
We know, every one tells the Buffet, Duke doesn't guard the perimeter, their front court is thin, Seth Curry hasn't been told he's not Stephen. We KNOW. But they've lost only 4 games. They have wins against Michigan St, @UNC, vKansas, v.Michigan, @Florida St, they bashed newest Waiting Line customer Colorado St. They just keep winning. This is a currently projected 1 seed, and if they continue to win, and end up with 2-3 wins over UNC + an ACC regular season and conference tournament title, that 1 seed will stay put. Of course, as this Buffet entry was heading to publishing, Duke was being sent to OT by a mediocre Va Tech team, trying to make the Buffet regret defending an unlikable team
Well, the one good thing about this season for Seth Greenberg, he's not going to have sweat out selection Sunday, because his Hokies will not be selected. Likely to end up in a tie for 9th with the Wake Forest/BC winner today, they travel to Clemson and then finish with a home game v.Clemson to close out.
Final: Duke 70 Virginia Tech 65 OT
North Carolina (24-4, 11-2, 5) @ Virginia (21-6, 8-5, 38)
Very interesting game between two will be tournament teams. Two weeks ago, a tired looking Virginia team went into the Dean Dome in body but not spirit, crumbling in the second half and falling 70-52. A pair of wins later, including a near-30 point pasting of peripheral Waiting Liner, Maryland, the Cavs may have their spirit/energy renewed and today's game will go a long way to determining that. Virginia currently is sitting 4th in the ACC, 2 behind Florida St for third. Not sure if either 3rd or 4th is advantageous, although Virginia did play Duke down to the wire in Cameron. The key really is holding on to the 4th (or higher) position - they sit one game up on NC St & Miami, and two on Maryland & Clemson. There are several tiebreakers that would come into play, but for now, just know that the 4th seed is not quite sewn up yet. Currently projected out as an 8 seed, and with games versus UNC, Florida St & Maryland - tough to see even a 3 game losing streak to close the season knocking them out of the tournament. Perhaps, 3 losses compounded by a first round ACC flameout and we would revisit things, but it's a doubtful scenario - mostly because the bottom of the ACC is plain BAD.
North Carolina is the other team with an odd amount of criticism for four losses, one to UNLV in a Las Vegas-based tournament, a 1 point road loss at Kentucky, a buzzer beating loss to Duke, and, yes that bizarre blowout loss in Tallahassee. But, really, 1 dud, and UNC is severely flawed? Not buying it. Not predicting a tournament championship right now, but the Buffet just thinks sometimes people look to hard to find something wrong. Come tournament time, when we evaluate this team, yes we will point out points of pain/sources of exploitation - but that comes with expert analysis only the Buffet can provide, not snap judgments based on individual game results. UNC is tied with Duke for the ACC lead, 1 game up on Florida St, who probably REALLY regrets that the Boston College loss now. Currently projected as a #2 seed, after today they host Maryland, who will be desperate for a signature win, and then, likely the triple crown game @ Duke: (1) regular season championship; (2) ACC tournament #1 seed; (3) NCAA tournament #1 seed edge...
Maryland (16-11, 6-7, 85) @ Georgia Tech (9-18, 2-11, 186)
Can you explain Maryland? You want simply explain them away by calling them a bad road team (1-6) - except a win at Clemson, a 5 point loss at NC State and a double-OT loss at Miami, indicate a team that can compete in a hostile environment. However, a 14 points loss at Florida St, 13 point loss at Temple, an 18 point defeat at Cameron and a 27 point loss at Virginia suggests they can't. This team needs to win out and win deep in the ACC tournament to go dancing. Right now, on the strength of their Miami and Notre Dame wins, they are a peripheral Waiting Liner, sitting 73rd on the S-curve (the top to bottom ranking of teams in Line for the NCAA tournament), which essentially projects as a 15 seed (if all teams were at-large bids). Winning includes two road games, which includes today at ACC cellar dweller Georgia Tech, because they next one is at North Carolina.
Georgia Tech is in last, but not out of range of 9th, and with games coming against Boston College, they control their own last place destiny - wanted to say something nice about the Yellow Jackets, and their gradual improvement, but it's just not there to say. So, the nicest thing we can say is Brian Gregory is just getting started? Although, will Dayton Flyer fans simply respond with, "getting started on going to 2 NCAA tournaments in 7 years, and only once seeing the second day? Enjoy"
Final: Oops Terps, cancel that contingency plan. Georgia Tech 63 Maryland 61
Atlantic 10 Conference
14 team conference, only the top 12 qualify for the Atlantic 10 tournament.
Duquesne (15-12, 6-7, 92) @ George Washington (9-18, 4-9, 184)
Former McNeese St and Northeastern coach Ron Everhart has done a nice job putting Duquesne on the road to respectability. This is never going to be a perennial powerhouse, but continual winning seasons is something they can do - and by his 3rd season, Duquesne had won nearly as many games as they had in the 3 seasons prior to his arrival. The Dukes currently sit 8th in the A10, but with 3 to go, a lot of movement is expected. Their aim should be to win out and somehow catch the current 8-5 teams for one of the protected top 4 seeds that gets them a first round Bye.
GW's life is more complicated. A one-time perennial tournament team, Karl Hobbs lost his way beginning in 2008 and Mike Lonergan was brought in from Vermont. Now the Colonials are bottoming out, in danger of failing to qualify for the A10 tournament for the second time in four years. They should be in decent shape, up 2 games on the bottom 2 teams with 3 to go against seeds 6-7-8.
Final: George Washington 56 Duquesne 51
Saint Louis (22-5, 10-3, 22) @ Rhode Island (5-23, 2-11, 267)
The Rick Majerus renaissance continues, St. Louis is cruising, having won 9 of 10, come into this matchup against the bottom team in the A10, with the regular season conference title in their sights. In the standings, they are 1 game out with 3 to play, but because of a January home loss to Temple, they are essentially 2 games back. Currently projected by Buffetology as a 9 seed, their place should be secure - although they should avoid losses 250+ RPI teams like Rhode Island along the way. With Xavier, Duquesne and a potential A10 tournament game against Temple in their future, they can get themselves into a favored seed position with a nice late season run.
Oh James Baron, what is happening on the Rho Isle this year. Just 5 wins and all but certain to miss the A10 tournament cut. It's not mathetically certain, as they are 2 back of 12th and 3 back of a tie-way tie for 10th with 3 to go. But with St. Louis and UMass (currently tied for 3rd in conference) - the schedule isn't favorable.
Final So much for propelling themselves into a higher seed - Rhode Island
Temple (22-5, 11-2, 14) @ Saint Joseph's (18-11, 8-6, 57)
Fran Dunphy has it working, and the monster season continues. How monster? 11 game winning streak. 12 of 13, 16 of 18 (which includes wins over Duke and Saint Louis). They are currently projected as a 4 seed - which might be their ceiling, and that's no slight to them. But ahead of them in the pecking order are Florida, Michigan, Marquette, Baylor and Georgetown (Buffet doesn't see a path to a 2 seed at all) and the debate whether those 5 teams are better is not the one we're making, but rather the strength of the conferences those other teams play in allow them the opportunity to reinforce their resume in ways that Temple just won't have the chance to. With only St. Louis, and to some extent Xavier, serving as a bona fide resume enhancer. As for their A10 prospects, with 3 to go, they have a one game lead on Saint Louis, but the head-to-head tiebreaker, so to borrow an MLB phrase, their magic number is 2.
Despite their coach turning into a needless jerk (http://espn.go.com/blog/collegebasketballnation/post/_/id/42525/what-is-phil-martelli-doing) - seriously what's with the racism directed at Irish transfers in college athletics right now? - the Hawks had started to put together something of a tournament resume winning 5 of 6, but their home loss to Richmond really damaged that, currently sitting 63rd on the Buffetology and 7th in line for a tournament bid, today's game is a virtual must win - without it, they'll have to advance to the A10 final and even that may not be enough. Currently sitting 6th, they can fall all the way to 11th, or potentially rise to 3rd. Chances are more likely that they settle in the 5-9 range, and they'd be best served being on Temple's side of the bracket, so that they can get that resume stocking win without it coming in the A10 final (because, of course, if they win that, they won't need an at-large bid)
Massachussets (19-8, 8-5, 81) @ Dayton (17-10, 7-6, 66)
UMass? A branch of the Calipari family tree, Derek Kellogg seems to have gotten himself turned around in Amherst. Trying to pick up where Travis Ford left off (an NIT championship), a pair of losing seasons, then a .500 campaign has led to this 19-8 2012. Not enough resume quality wins only St. Louis and Xavier, as well as peripherally quality wins (Saint Joseph's & Davidson), but otherwise a large RPI for an at-large team, 81, as well as losses to Rhode Island (1 of 5!!) and College of Charleston, pretty much have consigned UMass to the NIT, but it would be the first postseason of any kind for Kellogg at UMass. Maybe if they win out (which would include beating Temple on the road) and get Temple again in the A10 tourney ... but it's doubtful. Despite the fact that no one in the Waiting Line seems to want to win, there are just too many teams ahead of them in Line. At 8-5, they are in a 3 way tie with Xavier and St. Bonaventure, sitting 1 game up (in the loss column) on St. Joseph's and 1 overall of La Sall and Dayton. They good part for UMass is that they have the tie-breaker over both the Bonnies and Xavier. And, no, that's not a typo, St. Bonaventure is currently tied for 3rd in the Atlantic 10. It is amazing with that information that this is potentially a 3 bid league.
Dayton meanwhile has been on a better path of late as well. A fringe Waiting Line participant, they've been struggling badly of late, going 3-5 over their last 8, including a 4 game losing streak that featured a loss to URI. At 7-6 in conference, they are buried in the standings, but given the tight records (they are tied for 7th but only 1 game out of 3rd). it may flip for them from game to game. Dayton's road to the tourney isn't clear. They sit at 71, UMass is a nice win, but not much of a boost, next comes Richmond & George Washington, all games they cannot lose but do not much inthe way of profile building (although given the results of NC State, Seton Hall and nearly Texas today, winning might end up being good enough). They'll basically need to end up in Temple's side of the bracket and hope a team like Xavier end up there as well, and beat both, and hope that UMass or St. Louis qualify for the final, because a loss to any other team would be resume crushing.
Speaking of St. Bonaventure...
St. Bonaventure (15-10, 8-5, 107) @ Charlotte (13-13, 5-8, 159)
It's been 12 years since the Bonnies (laziest nickname in college sports?) went to the tournament. It'll probably be at least 13, but Mark Schmidt, former Xavier assistant under Skip Prosser and Robert Morris head coach, has kept things moving in the right direction. Obviously, this will not be an at-large team, but at 8-5 and tied for 3rd, they clearly can be a player in the A-10 tournament. Finishing at Charlotte, home v. St. Joe's and @La Salle - they have a really shot at securing the #3 spot.
Bobby Lutz where are you? Alan Major, former Thad Matta assistant, has not quite turned things around in Charlotte just yet. There are losses on that schedule that are just not explainable. Honestly, Lamar? No one loses to Pat Knight, except microphones.
La Salle (18-10, 7-6, 77) @ Fordham (9-17, 2-11, 234)
At the time of publication, Fordham, fighting to avoid missing the A1o tournament, got a big home win over 6 seeded La Salle, 67-62. Now at 3-11, they need 2 losses down the stretch from George Washington (they hold the tie breaker thanks for a 63-58 win). Fordham was led by burgeoning star Chris Gaston, and his 35 points and 16 rebounds. La Salle falls to 7-7 in conference.
Atlantic Sun Conference
South Carolina Upstate 90 (20-11, 13-5, 129) Stetson 72 (9-20, 6-12, 269)
Now that's how you back into a conference tournament, Jacksonville survives their loss to North Florida as SC Upstate blows out Stetson and eliminates the Hatters from the conference tournament.
Florida Gulf Coast (13-15, 8-9, 233) @ East Tennessee State (15-13, 9-8, 196)
FGC is sitting 6th in conference, a win here would propel them above ETSU by virtue of sweeping the season series. They, however, will fall no further than 6th.
ETSU is currently 5th, but a win would bump them into a tie for 4th with No Florida, which, by virtue of their own season sweep, would get the Mocs the 4th seed.
Lipscomb (12-17, 7-10, 223) v. Kennesaw St (3-27, 0-17, 329)
This would be the irrelevant game of the day, Lipscomb has locked up the 7th seed, and
Kennesaw has long been eliminated from qualifying for the A-Sun tournament, but this serves as Kennesaw's last opportunity to avoid a winless conference season.
Belmont (23-7, 15-2, 67) @ Mercer (21-9, 13-4, 115)
Statement game opportunity, both of these teams have wrapped up their seeds - Belmont #1 and Mercer #2 - with the conference tournament being hosted by Mercer, this is Belmont's chance to show their mettle at the University Center, and it's Mercer chance to send a message about what a tough mountain Belmont has to climb next week...
Big East Conference
Providence 73 (14-15, 3-13, 170) @ DePaul 71 (11-17, 2-14, 198)
The Battle for 15th Place! Providence gets themselves in position to face West Virginia and not UConn. With 2 to play, DePaul loses the tiebreaker for the 15th seed.
Notre Dame 58 (20-9, 13-4, 37) @ St. John's 61 (13-16, 6-10, 140)
Tough loss for Notre Dame, whose tournament seeding had been on the rise. This changes nothing, they are a tournament lock, their coach should win COY, and Jack Cooley, Connaughton, and Harvey Grant's junior have elevated their game nicely after the crushing loss of Tim Abromaitis to injury. This may, pending the result of this weekend's games, push Notre Dame to the brink of a 6 seed, but likely their seed will stay put and we'll keep a close eye on them going forward. With Georgetown on tap for Big Monday, the bleeding may be short as they can shore up the fallout from this loss quickly. As for the BET, this pushes Notre Dame squarely into the 3 seed, with the battle for the 3 seed on Monday versus Georgetown. They finish at home versus Providence, so it appears 5 conference losses with be their max, and a win over Georgetown keeps them in Marquette range, who finishes with Cincy & Georgetown.
St. John's is now just 1 game behind West Virginia for the 11th seed - the real prize, of course, at this standings level, is the 8 seed, which would avoid playing on day one of the BET, that spot is currently owned by Seton Hall, who just blew a home game against Rutgers.
Rutgers 77 (13-16, 5-11, 155) @ Seton Hall 72 (19-10, 8-9, 32) OT
Well, Buffet didn't see that one coming. Rutgers gets themselves out of the deadlock at the 12 spot in the conference. But really, other than spoiling Seton Hall's resume, there wasn't much to be gained for them here
Meanwhile, Seton Hall had a ton to lose - mostly all of the goodwill they had built up with their surprising 18 point win over Georgetown. Coming into the weekend, they were sitting on the Buffet's 11 line, 4 spots out of the at-large play-in game. Now, they might be staring at the play-in level or the Waiting Line yet again. They finish with DePaul, which can only injure their profile, not help - and frankly, this is a team that likely cannot lose another game to a non-tournament worthy team. And, this loss sets them up to be forced to play on day 1 of the BET, a day that only includes games where Bubble teams playing teams not tournament worthy (or 2 non-tournament worthy teams). The good news is Connecticut has Syracuse tonight, which means Seton Hall might get a reprieve.
Syracuse (28-1, 15-1, 1) @ Connecticut (17-10, 7-8, 24)
Syracuse's trajectory is simple. Led into the #1 seed at the BET and a win away from winning the regular season conference championship outright. Only one loss all season, and regardless of how good Notre Dame has proven to be, that game was still played without Fab Melo, so the blemish, to the Buffet, has an asterisk. Syracuse is virtually guaranteed of a 1 seed, not even sure how they'd lose it - 3 straight losses might be the only way ... The interesting race will be for the #1 overall position. Kentucky has an edge right now, but Syracuse plays Louisville and then, if they were to win the BET, they'd be projected to face (if chalk happens) a Bubble Team, Georgetown, and then the winner of Marquette/Notre Dame. Kentucky meanwhile added a nice win over Vandy, and still has a road game at Florida. The problem is those are the only two teams that can give a real boost to a resume like Kentucky's at this point, and they'll only get a shot a just one of them in the SEC tourney. Without fully analyzing hypothetical situation 2 1/2 weeks away, Syracuse has a better opportunity to boost their resume than Kentucky does, we'll see how much of a boost that is...
Connecticut is an odd team. Suspensions, a significant injury to their coach (and not a Coach K, shit my team sucks this year, so I'm going to have an "injury" and force the poor record on my assistant), and often confused, inconsistent play. Their other issue the Buffet likes to call it the TJ Ford Syndrome, where on occasion the team just sits around and waits for Kemba Walker to make something, only he's in Charlotte, wondering why people continue to allow Michael Jordan to make basketball personnel decisions. The defending champs have an up and downyear, started out untests and 5-0, then after a curious loss in the Bahamas to UCF, they rattled off another 7 straight wins, including wins over Harvard, Florida St and Arkansas. Then Ryan Boatright suspensions, erratic performances, and Jim Calhoun's back problems led to a bizarre Big East run where they struggled mightily on the road, won key home games, lost a Jan non-conference game with at Tennessee (see road issues) - but it feelslike the strength of their wins, eventhough they're mostly at home, lack of too many bad losses, and pretty much an ugly Waiting Line, profile-wise, and Connecticut, currently in a 9 seed position (35 overall) should be safe, barring a Providence, Pittsburgh, and first round BET disaster, this will be a 2012 tournament team.
Final: Syracuse 71 @ Connecticut 69. No real change for either team, nice road win for Syracuse as another feather in their campaign for the #1 overall seed, and UConn played tough, fought back after a big deficit, and really takes no ding from this strong loss.
Villanova 46 (11-17, 4-12, 114) @ Georgetown 67 (21-6, 11-5, 15)
The Hoyas, currently a 3 seed and 9th in the S-curve, rolls along nicely with a dominant win over a bad team heading into battle with 2 tournament teams in advance of the BET (Notre Dame then @Marquette). Given the caliber of teams on the 1/2, short of a bad loss for one of them, early conference tournament flameout or Georgetown running through the BET to the title, the 3 line might be their ceiling, as a victim of seeding circumstance, not caliber of team.
Villanova drops further, out of the 3-way tie for 12th and straight to 14th place in the conference, with a road game at the RAC and then home, playing the role of tournament spoiler at home against Cincinnati.
Big Sky Conference
Montana St (11-15, 6-8, 276) @ Montana (21-6, 13-1, 100)
With only the top 6 teams advancing to the conference tournament, this could be the clinching game for Montana St to qualify for the BST, who are 2 games up on Northern Colorado in the loss column with two to go.
Meanwhile, Montana is in a more crucial spot. A win keeps pace with Weber St, and the #1 seed in the tournament is a major coup, as the host of the conference tournament is the regular season champion. A win tonight sets up the big time showdown on February 28th, where Weber and Montana will clash with the regular season championship on the line. A loss, and Montana MUST win the finale against Weber, they would need Idaho St to finish above Montana St, and then they'd benefit from a very convoluted tie breaker system (otherwise, it would revert to RPI, which Weber appears it would have the edge on)
Sacramento State (9-18, 4-11, 319) @ Idaho St (9-18, 7-7, 271)
Sac State's season ends tonight, as they are 3 games back of Montana St, and the Bobcats have only 2 games left.
Meanwhile, Idaho State, Weber St's tiebreaker albatross - randomly could hold the fate of the conference tournament site in their hands. If Montana is unable to win tonight's Montana grudge match - then where Idaho St finishes relative to where Montana St finishes could matter. For Weber St's part, they are hoping Sac State wants to go out large, keep them tied with or below Montana St in the standings.
Eastern Washington (13-15, 7-7, 208) v. Portland St (24-13, 8-6, 189)
A good, matchup between potential 3-4 seeds in next week's tournament. Winning would behoove both teams, as the #3 and #4 seeds host the first round of the BST - and with two games left, and a 3-way tie at 7-7, plus Montana State looming at 6-8, nothing has been locked up by either team.
Big South Conference
10 of the 11 teams qualify for the Big South tournament - Presbyterian is not eligible for the tournament while still in "transition" from Div II.
Presbyterian 68 (14-15, 8-10, 258) @ Gardner Webb (12-19, 6-12, 287) 68
A nice final season in D1 transition for the Blue Hose, finishing with a road win at Gar Webb to get to 8-10 in conference. Their season including a shocking road win in Cincinnati, a two separate 3 game winning streaks, and the road warriors finished 6-6 away from home.
Gar Webb meanwhile finishes 9th in conference, and will open the Big South tournament against
Winthrop (11-18, 8-10, 277) 55 @ UNC-Asheville (20-9, 15-2, 122) 67
Season capper for UNC-Asheville, who has already clinched the top seed, will be hosting the quaters and semis, and finish with just 2 conference losses by a total of 10 points.
The loss sends Winthrop into a 3-way tie for 6th, an important distinction, because the 7 and 8 seed in the Big South tournament host the opening rounds, and the 6th seed gets a bye to the quarters.
This tiebreaker is a bit convoluted, but bear with the Buffet - since all 3 teams did not play each other twice, you cannot go to the cumulative record against all tied teams. So now it is record versus individual conference teams in descending order, but this only applies to teams that they've each played twice.
Teams played twice:
High Point: UNC-Ash (0-2), Coastal Car (1-1); Campbell (1-1), Charleston So (1-1), Gar Webb (1-1), Presby (1-1), Radford (1-1)
VMI: UNC-Ash(0-2), Coastal Car (0-2); Charleston So (1-1), Liberty (1-1), Gar Webb (1-1), Presby (1-1), Radford (2-0)
Winthrop: UNC-Ash (0-2), Campbell (0-2), Liberty (2-0), Gar Webb (1-1), Presby (1-1), Radford (2-0)
Teams in common: Asheville (all 3 0-2); Gardner Webb (all 3 1-1), Presbyterian (all 3 1-1); Radford (VMI & Winthrop are 2-0, High Point is 1-1)
High Point becomes the 8th seed.
Now, VMI & Winthrop are left tied for the 6th & 7th seed, we then look at their head to head, but they are also split 1-1, so now we go back to their record versus other teams
VMI: UNC-Ash(0-2), Coastal Car (0-2); Charleston So (1-1), Liberty (1-1), Gar Webb (1-1), Presby (1-1), Radford (2-0)
Winthrop: UNC-Ash (0-2), Campbell (0-2), Liberty (2-0), Gar Webb (1-1), Presby (1-1), Radford (2-0)
Winthrop's 2-0 record against Liberty, versus VMI's 1-1 puts VMI in the 7 slot, and grants Winthrop the 6th seed and the first round bye.
Coastal Carolina 81 (19-10, 12-6, 190) @ VMI 64 (14-15, 8-10, 272)
Coastal Carolina, who would have lost the tiebreaker by virtue of a sweep at the hands of Campbell, uses the power of this win and Campbell's loss to claim the Big South's #2 seed.
Per the tiebreaker discussed above, VMI is now the #7 seed.
Charleston Southern 65 (18-11, 11-7, 174) @ Radford 59 (6-25, 2-16, 328)
Charleston Southern graduates into a tie for the 3rd spot in the conference on the strength of this road win. The tie is with Campbell following their disappointing loss at Liberty. The teams split the season series, so now we go to the record versus individual teams:
As both teams did not play Asheville twice, the examination then turns to Coastal Carolina, who Campbell swept and Charleston Southern split.
Charleston Southern is the 4 seed.
Campbell 41 (17-14, 11-7, 194) @ Liberty 49 (14-17, 9-9, 289)
By virtue of the tie-breaking system reflected above, Campbell is the Big South's 3 seed, although the loss cost them the opportunity at the #2 seed (as they held the tie breaker against Coastal).
Liberty avoided the tie breaking mess above with this nice win, and enter the conference tournament as the 5 seed and will face Charleston Southern.
Big Ten Conference
Nebraska 34 () @ Michigan State 62
this is not a platform where I call for anyone's job. Although college coaches are well paid, and I'm sure most of them will land on their feet just fine, but nonetheless, just because you can write something, doesn't mean you should. THAT SAID. How on earth is Doc Sadler still employed by the University of Nebraska?
Purdue 75 (19-10, 9-7, 18) @ Michigan 61 (21-8, 11-5, 10)
The Buffet feels for Robbie Hummel - his college career was virtually robbed from him by two separate major knee injuries - but at least the kid is back, averaging a career high 16.5 points, but really, he's not the same - as his shooting percentages are way down. In any event, this win, Michigan's first home loss, is a virtual tourney clincher for a team who was already slotted in the 10 spot on the latest Buffetology bracket. Now, at 9-7 in conference, pending tomorrow's outcomes with Wisconsin and Indiana, they have a shot to be the conference's #4 seed, but will be no worse than tied in 5th. With Penn St & Indiana left.
Michigan will be fine, grand scheme of things, but they had reason to a 3 seed, and were threatening to compete for the regular season B10 title. Now, it's not exactly gone, they're 2 games back with 2 games left, but they have to go to Champaign to face an Illinois team desperate for a win, and they need Michigan St to lose two straight and Ohio St to lose one of Wisconsin or @Northwestern, because in this scenario Michigan needs the Buckeyes to win in East Lansing
Northwestern @ Penn St
Big XII Conference
Missouri 86 (26-4, 12-4, 14) @ Kansas 87 (24-5, 14-2, 6) OT
Well, things just got interesting. The 1 & 2 line are pretty much locked into a war between Kentucky, Syracuse (virtual #1 locks), Duke, Ohio State, Michigan St and UNC, and these two teams.
Coming in, Missouri had the slight seeding edge on Kansas, 5 to 7. That's gone now. And now Kansas holds a commanding 2 game lead over Missouri for the B12 title, and interesting, Baylor and Iowa State are lingering just behind the Tigers at 11-5. (And the Mayor's Cyclones have an upcoming matchup with Mizzou. Kansas has a should-be gimme v. Okla St (provided no let down from today's thriller) and then host Texas in prime time, in a game that will get a lot of hype, but given Texas' road performances, probably will be a double-digit mashing.
Iowa State 65 (21-8, 11-5, 42) @ Kansas State 61 (19-9, 8-8, 40)
Wow. Wow. Wow. 21 wins? 11 conference wins in a decently strong year for the B12. (one sport where losing Nebraska only helps is hoops). The Mayor's municipality of transfers is chugging along nicely and this win was key. Kansas St was riding high off of a pair of wins over top seed destinators Missouri & Baylor. Now, Iowa State, who came into today in a precarious 11 seeded spot, but this will likely boost that, not to mention pretty much lock them in for a bid, with two more Resume lock-in games to go versus Baylor and @ Missouri. Now, win both, and suddenly you are looking at a team who finishes the regular season tied for the B12 second position.
Kansas State meanwhile doesn't lose the goodwill built up from their signature wins, but it does dilute them slightly - at a 7 seed (27 overall), they probably won't suffer much of a drop from this loss, with a pair of gimmes (@A&M & Oklahoma St.) left. What they have done is put themselves in a 5th place tie with Texas.
Oklahoma 60 (14-14, 4-12, 117) @ Baylor 70 (24-5, 11-5, 9 )
Oklahoma season is a trainwreck, and all they had to play for today was finishing about 9th in the conference, and now that's not guaranteed.
Baylor just needed to avoid a bad loss, and they did. A nice 10 point win for a team currently sitting as a 3
Texas A&M 42 @ Oklahoma St 60
Nothing to see here...
Texas 71 (18-11, 8-8, 53) @ Texas Tech 67 (8-20, 1-15, 225) OT
The loud sigh of relief you may have heard around 6pm ET time today came directly from Austin, Texas - because that is NO typo, Texas Tech has 1 conference win. These Baby Horns do not play well on the road, and actually, they just don't play full games. The first half looked like it'd be a cake walk, but then turnovers, bad decisions, and a parade to the free throw for Tech led to a pair should-have-lost position for Texas. But they survived - coming in, Texas was dangling on the edge of getting sent to the Waiting Line..., one of the last two teams in, and 51 overall - this won't boost them, that's for sure. But with West Virginia, Seton Hall, North Carolina St, et al losing - who needs a boost, you just need to win.
Big West Conference
top 8 teams qualify
UC Riverside(13-15, 6-8, 252) @ Long Beach (20-7, 13-0, 35)
The quest for perfection continues, as Long Beach hosts UC Riverside, as a straight forward 8-team tournament, Riverside, sitting in 5th place, cannot climb above 4th, so really, and I hate to suggest it, but it'd be best for them to lose here, avoid LBSU in the tournament until the final (or until someone else knocks them out)... but, whatever, you have to play the best to be called the best, so win and make the statement heading to Anaheim.
CS Fullerton (19-7, 10-3, 137) @ UC Davis (4-23, 2-11, 341)
The rare late February game between a second place team and a 2-11 team that has meaning. This season was supposed to be all about LBSU and UCSB on a collision course for a BWT final rematch that denied the 49ers a tourney berth - but the Titans have had other ideas, and have been on a pretty impressive tear so far.
Davis would be the opposite of impressive, but at 2-11, they need a win to keep pace with Northridge in the race for the the 8th and final spot in the Big West tournament.
CS Northridge (7-19, 3-11, 316) @ UC Irvine (10-17, 5-8, 265)
Speaking of the race for the 8th and final spot, Northridge goes to Irvine, in their first of two final games. 1 win would probably do it, as Davis has Fullerton & UCSB to go.
Cal Poly (15-13, 6-7, 211) @ UC-Santa Barbara (15-9, 9-4, 119)
UCSB has tripped up in conference more than you'd expect, but truthfully, whether they finish 2nd or 3rd, Long Beach is undefeated, so it make little difference. Just round into shape, keep Orlando Johnson healthy and see if 2012 can mimic 2011.
Cal Poly is trying to get to 9 wins, to keep pace with their strong 10-6 Big West 2011 season.
Colonial Athletic Association
Northeastern 72 @ Delaware 82
Northeastern loss makes them the #7 seed in the upcoming CAA tournament, and will face William & Mary on Friday, March 2.
Delaware is the #5 seed, and will face Towson.
Georgia State 64 @ William & Mary 60
Georgia State is the #6 seed, and will start off versus Hofstra
Towson 59 @ James Madison 65
James Madison ends up as the 8 seed, set for a first matchup with UNC-Wilmington
Towson will be the #12, vs. Delaware
Drexel 73 @ Old Dominion 72
Drexel has sneakily won 15 straight, and 21 of 22. The problem is, despite the heat, is they've only racked 1 a single impressive win during that span, a home win over VCU, otherwise it is a lot of also-rans, and they've looked weak against the better competition (only scored 35 against Virginia in the U.S. Virgin Islands and losing by 13 to Saint Joseph's). Plus losses to Norfolk St, Delaware & @Georgia St are pretty damaging. This just doesn't have the feel of a tournament resume, and if they were to lose in the CAA, I think they'd be small school bleeding heart team of the year, because they would only face VCU in the final, no one else in the CAA is really a resume builder, and really there's not enough here to support selection - of course, pending what the other Waiting Line... teams are able to accomplish. On the latest Buffetology, Drexel was a 13 seed, but behind the final two at-larges and sitting at 59 overall. This win will push them up slightly, Middle Tenn St's loss to Western Kentucky was painful.
UNC-Wilmington 64 @ Hofstra 93
UNC-Wilmington is the #9 seed, and will open versus James Madison.
The sudden offensively exploding Pride is the #11 seed, and will face underachiever Georgia State.
George Mason 77 @ VCU 89
George Mason has done a nice job rebounding from the loss of their institution of a coach and the hiring of a guy who has looked pretty outmatched by the job of head coach, but despite this, this will not be a tournament team.
VCU is an interesting case... they have a couple bad Georgia-related losses (Georgia Tech & Georgia St) but a nice win over South Florida, UNI and Akron. But were blown out of losses against Seton Hall and Georgia Tech, although, those were early when VCU was still figuring things out in the aftermath of some many defections from the 2011 Final Four team. Truthfully, not sure if when all is said and done their resume will stack up to other teams vying for inclusion. But it's close, they were the last team out of the latest Buffetology (#53 overall), and if they just keep winning up until they face Drexel in the finals, it'll be an interesting examination.
Conference USA
Memphis 87 (11-3) @ Marshall 67 (8-6)
Talk about a statement. Memphis and Pastner have been weirdly criticized. They had a pretty solid in Maui, considering they were 1-2, got blown out by Michigan, but then won a grueling 2OT game versus Tennesse and then lost an OT game the next time versus Georgetown. Then a win @ miami before dropping a pair of tough games to good Kentucky-based squads (Murray St & @Louisville). Then, unfortunately, they were blown out by Georgetown leading into the conference season. A solid conference season that has seen a split with Southern Miss, was punctuated by today's thrashing of a Marshall was flirting with an invitation to the Waiting Line..., but today that flirtation was exposed as a artificially high RPI on the strength of a strong schedule that Marshall did not do enough victory damage in. Now with two games to go, they are leading C-USA by a game, and currently are secure in their bid, sitting as an 8 seed (32 overall) and a game like today's really motivates you to move them up.
Marshall is done. All that's left is where they're seeing will land in the conference tournament.
UAB 61 (8-6) @ East Carolina 57 (3-11)
UAB has had a disappointing season, but are now sitting in a tie for 5th in the conference
ECU is locked in a battle with Tulane & SMU for the 10th seed, and the ability to avoid Memphis or Southern Miss in the first round of the tournament.
SMU 59 (3-13) @ Houston 62 (5-9)
SMU. ECU. Tulane. Last place tie.
Houston is the beneficiary of being able to play teams like SMU. At 5-9, they have an outside shot of reaching up beyond Rice & UTEP into 6th place
UTEP 45 (7-7) @ UCF 63 (19-8, 9-5, 64)
UTEP is now tied with Rice for 7th.
UCF has put it together for just the second time, really, since coming to Conference-USA back in 2005-2006. A nice early season win over UConn really put this team on the Waiting Line.. radar, but losses to U-La-La, Tulsa and most recently Rice have really clouded UCF's resume. Now, they finish the regular season at Memphis, and no matter
where they finish, they'll get another shot at a tourney bound team (So Miss or Memphis) before even reaching the C-USA final. They were the last of the next four teams out (64 overall), so they have some work to do, and hope for a lot of conference tournament chalk.
Rice 56 (7-7) @ Southern Miss 58 (10-4)
At 7-7, Rice is in the same 7th place tie we discussed earlier re: UTEP.
Southern Miss the triumph of the Larry Eustachy spirit, bounces back, a bit, following a quick two-game losing streak. This is not a fully secure team, despite their current 8th seed (31st overall) standing. They can afford a bad loss, but I wouldn't suggest it come against SMU. Beating Marshall and avoiding a loss before the C-USA championship game would be the Buffet's best prescription, but Southern Miss is in a better position than a lot of weak Waiting Line... resumes.
Tulsa 73 (10-4) @ Tulane 69 (3-11)
Tulsa has turned in a nice conference season after a non-conference slate that included a loss to Arizona State, they're right with Southern Miss, trying to finish in the #2 spot.
Tulane has not turned in a nice slate, and at 3-11, are tied with SMU & ECU for last place.
Horizon League
Wisc-Green Bay 71 @ Illinois-Chicago 63
Green Bay will be the #7 seed and travel to play Youngstown State next Tuesday at 7:05 pm ET
UIC is the #9 seed, going to Wisconsin-Milwaukee at 8pm ET on 2/28.
Wright St 55 @ Cleveland State 77
Wright State is the 8 seed, and will go to Hinkle to play 2-time NCAA runner up, but the cooled-off Butler, who seemed like they had turned a magic corner, but then were swatted by Valpo last night 71-59
Cleveland St but a band-aid on their losing streak bleeding, with a pair of nice Ws and vaulted themselves back into the #2 seed, at Valparaiso.
Detroit 76 @ Youngstown St 74
Detroit, the 3 seed, will host Loyola (IL) at 7pm ET next Tuesday
Youngstown, the 6 seed, will host #7 Wis-GB at 7:05pm ET on 2/28
Wis-Milwaukee 78 @ Loyola (IL) 69
Wisconsin-Milwaukee, a very trendy upset pick, is the league's 4 seed hosting UIC next week at 8pm ET
Loyola, the 10 seed, will Detroit.
Ivy League
SMART PEOPLE THREESOME?
Two weeks ago, Harvard was the immovable object, a guaranteed at-large team running roughshod over the conference.
Pennsylvania 55 (9-2) @ Harvard 54 (10-2)
Now, they are suddenly 10-2, just 1/2 game up on Penn, with Yale..
Cornell 40 (6-6) @ Yale 71 (9-3)
hanging right on the periphery -- and, remember, Ivy doesn't have a tournament, you win the regular season, you're in. You tie, regardless of head to head results, you go into a playoff. Now with Yale just a game back, and with Penn still on their schedule, the threat of an Ivy three-way is very real. 3 team Ivy playoffs, brings us back to 2002, when Penn, Yale and Princeton engaged in a class warfare for the right to enter the NCAA tournament.
Mid-American Conference
All 12 teams qualify. Teams 5-12 begin at the campus of the higher seed, winners advance to Quicken Loans Arena to face seeds 3 and 4, and the winners of these face the league's top 2 seeds in the semi finals
Miami OH 74 (5-9) @ Buffalo 84 (10-4)
With 2 games to go, Buffalo has edged out to a 2 game lead, trying to clinch a top 4 seed and advance to the quarterfinals. They will be locked into a battle for the #2 seed and an automatic semi-final berth in the MAC tourney.
Ball State 50 (4-10) @ Eastern Michigan 61 (8-6)
Eastern Michigan is the Western division leader, unfortunately in 2012, the MAC has revised its tournament format, giving no advantage to winning either division, only to winning games. Eastern is locked in a tough fight to avoid a first day game.
Kent State 58 (9-5) @ Bowling Green 74 (8-6)
Western Michigan 74 (6-8) @ Toledo 83 (6-8)
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