Sunday, February 26, 2012

On the FIRST Day of Conference Tourneys, the Buffet gave to me...

Today's tournament games:

Big South opening round:
Radford @ VMI, 7pm ET
Gardner-Webb @ High Point, 7:30pm ET

the battle for Big South supremacy...

That's right ladies and gentlemen, (ladies? Not yet - but soon), it's 2 days earlier than usual - but that only means extra goodness. It's the XII Days of Conference Tourneys, occurring over 14 days and we get started with the:

For the unitiated, the "XII Days of Conference Tourneys" is the countdown from the tipoff of the very first conference tournament all the way to Selection Sunday. We will preview the conference tournaments, provide schedules, results, players to keep and eye on, incredible inaccurate predictions, as well as previews of Waiting Line... games that occur around the conference tournaments. There are many previews, and whole lot of so-called experts, but there's only ONE Buffet....

Advance Auto Parts 2012 Big South Conference Championship:
Advance to the Dance

This was once a two-team race, then Coastal Carolina lost three straight, UNC-Asheville clinched the 2011/12 Big South regular season championship early, and Campbell and Charleston Southern entered the equation. The Chanticleers with an impressive win over Asheville and reclaimed the #2 seed - and those are your top four teams heading into the conference tournament.

Asheville is obviously the team to beat - only 2 conference losses all season, and they were each by only by 5 points a piece. Other than that, their average win over conference opponents was 11.2 points - but they did only go 3-2 against seeds 2-4. So maybe...

Coastal Carolina had only 2 losses early, a road OT loss to Campbell, and a 7 point road loss to Asheville, but otherwise they had the look of a real tough team. Wins over LSU and @Clemson in the non-conference, and they were a team to take seriously. Then they lost 5 of 6, but the one win? A big upset of Asheville to reassert themselves, and they closed out with a road blowout of VMI to be on the right path heading into the tournament. Coastal went 3-3 against the top 4 seeds - splitting with Asheville, sweeping Charleston Southern, but losing both of their regular season games to Campbell.

Campbell was just the opposite, a rough non conference slate where they lost 5 straight road games to teams of varying degrees of goodness (Houston Baptist on one end and North Carolina State on the other) and but got out to a 8-2 Big South start. The yips caught up to them and they lost 5 of their final 8 conference games (with a BB loss to Northwestern St mixed in) but they did mix in victories of Charleston Southern and Coastal Carolina, lest the other top seeds feel too confident about Campbell's defeatability. Campbell went 3-3 against the other top seeds - swept by Asheville, a split with Charleston Southern and swept Coastal Carolina themselves.

Charleston Southern had spurts both ways, starting out 3-0, then losing 3 of 4, winning 4 straight, losing three straight, then winning 3 of 4 to finish the season. The kind of team that plays the runs, so if they catch fire -- look out below. Char So went 2-3 against the top school, defeating Asheville in their only meeting, splitting with Campbell, and losing both games with Coastal Carolina.

Of the remaining teams:
Liberty holds 3 wins over the top 4 seed - and have won 5 straight conference games leading into the tournament (7 of 8 and 8 of 10) - after losing their first 6 conference games. They are a team to watch out for. They've been banged up, lost two key contributors before the season, and maybe 3 seasons later, they really miss Seth Curry. Ok, strike that last one. But they've come together and playing the right kind of ball at the right kind of time. The Buffet would love the rich irony of a Duke/Liberty 1/16 and Curry's deserted squad pulling off the first 1/16 upset in history. Plus, watching nearly triple-double averager, Jesse Sanders will be a treat. (Plus the Sanders family contributes 24.0 pts of the Flames 68.6 ppg)

The Buffet predicts: It's hard to argue with a 16-2 conference mark, and very little down the stretch suggested Asheville to be vulnerable. They picked up a couple late losses, which to the Buffet is like a boxer needing to taste his own blood, to keep him hungry in the middle roads, which make the Bulldogs dominant and dangerous. UNC-Asheville is the call

The Upset Special: Liberty Flames. The Buffet salutes a team coming together like this, and can see a little bit of a run. Jesse Sanders for all.

Schedule:
Unless noted with network, games can be found at: http://www.bigsouthsports.com/liveEvents/liveEvents.dbml?ATCLID=205343174&SPSID=25346&SPID=1987&DB_LANG=C&&DB_OEM_ID=4800

Monday. February 27 - First Round (at higher seeds) (all times Eastern)
Game 1: 10 Radford @ 7 VMI 7pm

Game 2: 9 Gardner-Webb @ 8 High Point 7:30pm

Wednesday, February 29 - Quarterfinals (Kimmel Arena, UNC-Asheville campus)
Game 3: Radford/VMI Winner v. 2 Coastal Carolina, 12pm
Game 4: 3 Campbell v. 6 Winthrop, 2pm
Game 5: Gardner-Webb/High Point v. 1 UNC-Asheville, 6pm
Game 6: 4 Charleston Southern v. 5 Liberty, 8pm

Thursday, March 1 - Semifinal (Kimmel Arena, UNC-Asheville campus)
Game 7: Winner Game 3 v Winner Game 4, 6pm - ESPNU
Game 8: Winner Game 5 v. Winner Game 6, 8pm - ESPNU

Saturday, March 3 - Championship (at highest remaining seed)
Winner Game 7 vs. Winner Game 8, 12:00pm, ESPN2

UNC Asheville Bulldogs (21-9, 16-2)

Ken Pom: 147

ESPN BPI: 146

RPI: 119

SOS: 212

Best wins: SC Upstate (127) 88-81; Coastal Carolina (176) 88-81; Campbell x2 (199) 95-84, @89-82

Best losses: @North Carolina St (72) 75-84; v.Connecticut (30) 63-73

Worst losses: @W Carolina (241) 67-86; *v.Charleston So. (169) 88-93; *@Coastal Carolina (176) 69-74

Players to watch

Matt Dickey – 16.9 pts, 3.4 rebs, 3.6 assists, 1.5 steals

J.P. Primm – 14.9 pts, 3.3 rebs, 4.1 assists, 1.9 steals

Chris Stephenson – 12.7 pts, 6.3 rebs, 2.8 assists, 1.1 steals

Jaron Lane – 12.0 pts, 3.8 rebs, 1.0 assists

Jeremy Atkinson – 11.1 pts, 6.6 rebs, 2.2 assists, 1.2 steals

Who to foul: Who not to foul:

Quinard Jackson - 44% (up from 41%) Dickey - 86%

Keith Hornsby - 63% (up from 59%) Primm - 84%

Stephenson – 73%

Lane – 81% (up from 78%)

Coastal Carolina Chanticleers (19-10, 12-6)

Ken Pom: 185

ESPN BPI: 191

RPI: 176

SOS: 278

Best wins: LSU (68) 71-63

Best losses:

Worst losses: Florida Int’l (239) 62-64; High Point (271) 65-70; @Winthrop (276) 57-67; @Liberty (284) 57-61

Players to watch

Anthony Raffa – 16.9 pts, 3.8 rebs, 2.0 assists, 1.9 steals

Chris Gradnigo – 15.1 pts, 6.4 rebs, 1.1 assists

Kierre Greenwood – 11.5 pts, 3.8 rebs, 4.8 assists, 1.4 steals, 45% 3pts

Sam McLaurin – 9.5 pts, 7.5 rebs, 1.2 blocks

Jon Pack – 6.3 rebs, 6.5 rebs, 1.2 blocks

Who to foul: Who not to foul:

McLaurin - 52% Raffa - 75%

Pack - 48% Gradnigo - 82%

Danny Nieman – 40% Greenwood – 80%


Campbell Camels (17-11, 11-5)

Ken Pom: 232

ESPN BPI: 228

RPI: 200

SOS: 306

Best wins: @Iowa (129) 77-61

Best losses: @No Carolina St (72) 81-87

Worst losses: @Hou Baptist (321); @Gardner Webb (293) 72-78; Presbyterian (244) 67-69; @Liberty (284) 41-49; @High Point (271) 60-98; @App State (265) 74-77

Players to watch

Darren White – 17.0 pts, 5.5 rebs, 2.2 assists, 1.0 steals, 1.1 blks, 39% 3pts

Eric Griffin – 16.2 pts, 8.7 rebs, 1.5 assists, 1.0 steals, 2.2 blks

Trey Freeman – 14.5 pts, 3.1rebs, 3.9 assists, 1.2 steals

Lorne Merthie – 8.2 pts, 1.9 rebs, 1.9 assists, 38% 3pts

Rico Ferguson – 7.0 pts, 2.2 rebs, 3.0 assists, 1.3 steals

Marvelle Harris – 5.2 pts, 5.9 rebs, 1.1 assists

Who to foul: Who not to foul:

White - 67% Freeman - 87%

Griffin - 57% Merthie - 79%

Harris - 55% Jihad Wright - 75%


Charleston Southern Buccaneers (15-11, 11-7)

Ken Pom: 172

ESPN BPI: 183

RPI: 169

SOS: 279

Best wins: @UNC Asheville (118) 93-88

Best losses: @Kansas State (45) 67-72; @Coll of Charleston (110) 68-70

Worst losses: @Gardner Webb (293) 77-80; Liberty (284) 74-75; @VMI (281) 81-90; @High Point (271) 78-88

Players to watch

Kelvin Martin - 15.3 pts, 9.2 rebs, 1.7 assists, 2.1 steals, 1.6 blks

Saah Nimley - 13.1 pts, 2.9 rebs, 3.9 assists

Arlon Harper - 12.6 pts, 2.9 rebs, 1.9 assists, 2.0 steals, 41% 3pts

Mathian Muo - 9.9 pts, 4.1 rebs, 1.0 assists, 43% 3pts

Jeremy Sexton - 9.0 pts, 1.7 rebs, 1.8 assists

Who to foul: Who not to foul:

Martin - 60% Nimley - 72%

Sheldon Strickland - 67% Harper - 77%

Muo - 79%

Sexton - 82%

Paul Gombwer - 73%

Other Big South players to watch:

Nick Barbour, High Point - 20.8 pts, 2.6 rebs, 1.4 asts, 1.2 stls, 50% 3pts (211 atts), 82% FTs

Keith Gabriel, Virginia Military Institute - 18.1 pts, 3.7 rebs, 1.9 asts, 1.3 blks, 1.8 stls

Stan Okoye, VMI - 17.7 pts, 7.1 rebs, 1.9 assists, 1.5 steals

George Valentine, Winthrop - 8.7 pts, 7.9 rebs, 1.1 blks, 1.6 pts

Jesse Sanders, Liberty - 12.4 pts, 7.8 rebs, 8.0 assists, 1.1 steals

Andre Jones, Winthrop - 16.1 pts, 3.2 rebs, 1.7 asts, 1.2 stls

Shay Shine, High Point - 15.5 pts, 5.3 rebs, 2.9 asts, 1.2 stls, 41% 3pts

David Minaya, Liberty - 12.8 pts, 3.9 rebs, 1.2 asts

Reggie Middleton, Winthrop - 12.3 pts, 4.0 rebs, 4.4 assists, 1.5 stls

Tashan Newsome, Gardner-Webb - 12.0 pts, 6.9 rebs, 1.6 asts

John Caleb Sanders, Liberty - 11.6 pts, 2.7 rebs

From the conference that brought you Jack Leasure, presenting the inaugural Jack Leasure Mad Bomber of the Conference Award!

Nick Barbour, High Point - 105/211, 50% (a leading candidate for the 2012 Buffet Jack Leasure Mad Bomber award - 211 threes and 50% accuracy? WOW)

Big South Player of the Year: Matt Dickey, G, Sr., UNC-Asheville

Big South Coach of the Year: Barclay Radebaugh, Charleston Southern

Big South Freshman of the Year: Trey Freeman, G, Campbell

Big South Defensive Player of the Year: Kelvin Martin, F, Sr., Charleston Southern

First-Team All Big South:

Matt Dickey, G, Sr., UNC Asheville
Nick Barbour, G, Sr., High Point
Jesse Sanders, G, Sr., Liberty
Kelvin Martin, F, Sr., Charleston Southern
Eric Griffin, F, Sr., Campbell
Al'Lonzo Coleman, F, Sr., Presbyterian

Second-Team All Big South:
J.P. Primm, G, Sr., UNC Asheville
Stan Okoye, F, Jr., VMI
Anthony Raffa, G, Jr., Coastal Carolina
Darren White, G, Jr., Campbell
Chris Gradnigo, F, Sr, Coastal Carolina

Morsels from the Big South:

Darius Leonard, So. F from Campbell is the cousin of former UNC Final Four MVP Donald Williams

Cedrick Bowen, Fr F from Charleston So is the cousin of former FSU F and 1st rounder Chris Singleton
Charleston Southern head coach Barclay Radebaugh has a cool name.
One of Charleston's top assistants, is former So Carolina standout & all-time leading scorer BJ Mckie
You might remember Anthony Raffa from his year at Albany, before transferring to Coastal Carolina
Coastal's 2nd leading scorer, Chris Gradnigo, played 3 years at U La La, leading them in scoring twice
Coastal Carolina's coach is former Auburn and Clemson head coach, Cliff Ellis
One of Ellis' assistants, is former Auburn standout and NBA first rounder, Mamadou N'Diaye
Radford's head coach, Mike Jones, hired in the Summer of 2011, was on Shaka Smart's VCU Final 4 team
Mr. Oscar Robertson, Jesse Sanders, is the younger brother of former Gar-Webb star Thomas Sanders
Liberty So guard, John Caleb Sanders is the younger brother of Sr. Jesse Sanders (basketball genes alert)

Waiting Line... Matchups
None.

Kansas @ Oklahoma St. - Kansas is in, and if they keep winning and capture the Big XII conference tournament championship, chances are they'll end up with a 1 seed.

Texas Tech @ Baylor - Seems Baylor has righted their ship, this game should not be close. Baylor could end up on the 2 line, but really a 3 seed sounds just about right for them

Notre Dame @ Georgetown - Notre Dame seemed to really want to be in the 3 seed discussion. Shhhhhhhhhhhhhhh Irish fans, that discussion is pretty much kaput (for now, the BET can change a lot of conversations. Georgetown bounced back nicely from their inexplicable non-showing against Seton Hall with a 40 minute domination of Villanova. They're pretty squarely in the 3-seed, like Baylor, with only a BET win really likely to move them up (although, they have ND and Marquette to go, that's a chance to beat a 4-5 seed and a 3 seed in succession, so stay tuned)

Longwood @ Gonzaga - Really Mark Few? Really? Gonzaga is a tournament lock, with an upward ceiling that seems to hover around the 5-line, with a 6-8 seeming most likely, and in the event of a late season collapse that could end up sending them to the 9-10 line.

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