BRACKET BUSTER
The coolest regular season weekend of the year, is it as manufactured by the WWL as Valentine’s Day has been by Hallmark? Yes. Is it lame that good basketball teams need a manufactured day to get a little attention and bolster their tournament hopes by cannibalizing each other? Yes. But, honestly, to me, it’s like complaining that the Super Bowl is overwrought and commercialized, instead of just saying, hell yes it is, and I’m going to indulge the hell in it. So the Buffet is. It was this weekend back in 1995 that the Buffet’s editor in chief had the best gambling moment to date. Yes, no one really likes to hear about other’s people’s gambling stories, just a fact. Right up there with dreams, bad experiences with traffic and when people try quoting a funny lines from a tv show that you don’t watch.
But, that’s the beauty of writing the Buffet, you can write it and people are either held captive thinking the paragraph might be 1) entertaining; 2) containing key hoops information; or 3) both. Guess you’ll just have to read on and find out. In any event, in Tahoe for a weekend with siblings and cousins, the Buffet EIC walks into an area sports book, a book that went old school and wrote the lines up on a dry erase board daily. The women running the book had not yet posted the lines and so, there we were going game by game, with the Buffet EIC reading the game, and guessing the line, and no joke coming within 1-2 points of about 95% of them. It was a masterful, virtuoso performance that was then parlayed (see what we did there?) into a heck of a windfall gambling night. So in the spirit of 1995, here is a look at some of the more high profile/interesting Bracket Buster matchups and their current lines.
St. Mary’s Gaels v. Murray St Racers
The one the world has been waiting for. Or else, we were until Murray St went and squashed that whole “undefeated regular season” thing and then St. Mary’s got themselves blown out at home by the Loyola Marymount Bo Kimbles and lost Stephen Holt to injury (more on that later).
Yesterday’s Buffet gave a tale of the tape on this one, from a tournament profile and players to watch perspective … to refresh:
St. Mary’s Gaels (23-3, 12-1)
Ken Pom: 32
ESPN BPI: 29
RPI: 26
SOS: 120
Record v. RPI:
1-25: 1-2
26-50: 2-0
51-100: 3-1
101-150: 2-0
151-200: 1-0
201+: 12-0
Best wins: Gonzaga (16) 83-62; @BYU x2 (47) @80-66; 98-82; Northern Iowa (52) 57-41;
Best losses:
Worst losses: @Denver (94) 58-70; @Gonzaga (16) 59-73; v.Baylor (7) 59-72
Players to watch
Matthew Dellavedova – 15.7 pts, 3.3 rebs, 6.4 assists,
Rob Jones – 15.0 pts, 10.6 rebs, 2.3 assists, 1.7 steals
Stephen Holt – 10.8 pts, 4.8 rebs, 3.4 assists, 1.9 steals
Jorden Page – 8.3 pts, 1.1 rebs, 2.1 assists
Brad Waldow – 8.3 pts, 4.4 rebs, 1.1 blks
Clint Steindl – 6.8 pts, 2.5 rebs, 1.0 assists, 43% 3pts
Kenton Walker II – 4.5 pts, 3.6 rebs
Mitchell Young – 4.3 pts, 2.9 rebs
Who to foul: Who not to foul:
Jones - 63% Dellavedova - 83%
Waldow – 50% Holt - 77%
Walker - 63% Page - 86%
Steindl - 100% (20 FTs)
Young – 73%
Murray State Racers (24-1, 12-1)
Ken Pom: 68
ESPN BPI: 46
RPI: 55
SOS: 266
Record v. RPI:
1-25: 2-0
26-50: 0-0
51-100: 1-0
101-150: 1-1
151-200: 5-1
201+: 12-0
Best wins: v.Southern Miss (10) 90-81 2ot; @Memphis (19) 76-72; Dayton (71) 75-58
Worst losses: Tennessee State (139) 68-72
Players to watch
Isaiah Canaan – 19.6 pts, 3.3 rebs, 3.8 assists, 1.4 steals, 48% 3pts
Donte Poole – 13.7 pts, 3.4 rebs, 1.6 assists, 2.1 steals
Ivan Aska – 11.7 pts, 5.8 rebs
Jewuan Long – 8.9 pts, 3.1 , 2.8 assists, 1.0 steals, 49% 3pts
Ed Daniel – 6.8 pts, 5.4 rebs
Who to foul: Who not to foul:
McFadden - 53% Jones - 75%
Williams - 91%
Johnson - 73%
` Jones – 81%
As a road team, St. Mary’s has gone 6-2, winning @BYU (80-66), @Loyola Marymount (71-63) and at San Diego, Pepperdine, Cal Poly and Santa Clara, losing at the Kennel and against Denver. They average 71.4 points on the road, but interesting that in their two losses and struggle of a game against Cal Poly, they only put up 58.7 points. It seems if Murray St can slow it down and make it a defensive war, , that’s when you can get St. Mary’s. Overall, the Gaels have the 24th most efficient offense and just the 107th ranked defense (per KenPom). They average 76 ppg overall, and are a 48% team from the field, a solid FT shooting squad at 72% and pour in 36% from 3 (they rank 44th overall with 7.8 threes per game). They key stat for this game is rebounding margin – St. Mary’s ranks 11th overall, grabbing 7 more rebounds per game than their opponent – a huge statistic given that Murray St’s knock is that size is not on their side. They also take good care of the ball with just 11.5 turnovers per game (28th best in the nation). Randy Bennett’s squad goes about 8 deep - but don’t let the rebounding #s totally mislead you, this is not a giant team - their rebounding comes from 6’6” senior forward Rob Jones and then several supporting actors – 6’9 Brad Waldow (17.2 minutes, 4.3 rebounds), 6’9 Mitchell Young (12.3 minutes, 2.8 rebounds), 6’9 Kenton Walker II (11.1 minutes, 3.6 rebounds) and 6’4 Stephen Holt (32.6 minutes, 4.7 rebounds). Of course, the drink is stirred by Matthew Dellavedova who went from Mickey McConnell’s goofy looking sidekick to star, and it’s working out just fine. Now, what about Stephen Holt? The Gaels’ third leading scorer went down and is not expected to play Saturday. That changes things considerably. You had to figure he an Dellavedova were going to share Isaiah Canaan duties, and as the third leading scorer – it is necessary that someone step up. Based on the LMU game, it seems the minutes will be shared between a pair of seniors - 6’7 forward Australian Clint Steindl & 6’9 forward Kenton Walker II. Yes, this will make them bigger than having the 6’4 Holt on the court, but in what could be a little man’s track meet versus Murray St, will that work? And, truly, the production increase will fall on Steindl (who is cut from the vein of Buffet favorite, Jack Leasure (http://jackleasurecamp.blogspot.com/) a three point bomber in every sense of the word – played expanded minutes last night, shooting 11 times, all of which were launched from beyond the arc) and guard Jorden Page – he will have to expand upon his 8 points per game. Perhaps, suffering from the added pressure, he struggled last night, getting only 5 points and shooting only 2-10 from the field. That must change in Kentucky on Saturday.
Murray State has been in charge all season – 12-1 at home, with a blowout win against Dayton there, as well as what was an unstoppable streak against lower RPI and conference opponents alike before they crumbled in the closing moments and lost to Tennessee St (came right back with a pretty convincing, although not blow out, win against SE Missouri State last night, on the road, after SeMo had made life difficult for them at home back on Feb 2). A 76 point per game team at home – they give up an average 63. Overall their averages are about the same – 75 ppg and 62 ppg. Their issue is rebounding (ranking 210th in the country) - turnovers are not a HUGE issue, they are 206th, but at 14 per game, are those 3 extra turnovers something the Buffet will key in on and say HUGE DISCREPANCY? No. Rebounding margin is a slight problem, they are only +2.5 on the season, and that’s playing a schedule with a lot of teams built similarly to them. They are ranked 8th in the OVC in rebound per game, and were beat up pretty good on the boards in their game against OVC #2 rebounding team, Tenn Tech (an 82-74 Racer win).
The home game and lack of Stephen Holt leads me to believe that Murray St should be a 5-6 point favorite, especially now that Dellavedova is a game decision due to an injured ankle. The Moraga curse lives on.
Now that the big one is out of the way. WAIT. Big one? We’ve got Casper Ware vs. Doug McDermott, and the Buffet dares call anything but that the “big one”? I know, blasphemy. But in terms of projected protected seeds, that’s as big as Bracket Buster will get (damn you Tennessee State and Stephen Holt’s MCL for diminishing it ever so slightly) … and tomorrow also features Wichita St hosting Davidson. But, as we all know, Bracket Buster is a two day affair, with things getting kicked off today at 4:00 PM EST with VCU at Northern Iowa, and then 9pm EST, Drew Viney and the LMU Lions look to keep their high from their big upset in Moraga going as they face the Horizon leading and streaking Crusading Drew Family of Valparaiso.
Virginia Commonwealth University Rams v. Unversity of Northern Iowa Panthers
When we last saw VCU, this was happening: http://dc.sbnation.com/2012/2/15/2799305/video-george-mason-vcu-sherrod-wrights-buzzer-beater-from-every-conceivable-angle#storyjump/in/2562583
Before that, however, they were on an 11 game win streak that got people thinking, hmmmm, maybe Shaka Smart is a pretty freakin good coach. Tonight is a good chance to get a nice home win over a Northern Iowa outfit that isn’t necessarily the cream of the MVC crop, but a strong team with some nice wins over at-large tournament contenders (Iowa St, Colorado St, Creighton, and a blowout win at Old Dominion) who has had a curiously bumpy run through the Missouri Valley.
Here’s a review of the snapshot of these two teams given yesterday:
Northern Iowa Panthers (17-10, 7-8)
Ken Pom: 73
ESPN BPI: 66
RPI: 52
SOS: 36
Record v. RPI:
1-25: 0-3
26-50: 3-1
51-100: 1-1
101-150: 7-3
151-200: 2-1
201+: 3-1
Best wins: Creighton (29) 65-62; Colorado St (28) 83-77; @Iowa St (38) 69-62; Missouri St (87) 61-60
Best losses: Wichita St (17) 68-71; @Creighton (29) 60-63
Worst losses: @Bradley (225) 67-78; Evansville (158) 65-76; @Indiana St (129) 54-59; @Illinois St (119) 61-65; Ohio (104) 59-76; @Wichita St (17) 57-82; @St. Mary’s (25) 41-57
Players to watch
Anthony James – 13 pts, 4.3 rebs, 1.8 assists
Seth Tuttle – 9.3 pts, 5.2 rebs
Jake Koch – 9.3 pts, 5.3 rebs, 3.0 assists, 1.0 steals, 1.0 bocks
Marc Sonnen – 8.7 ppg, 2.3 rebs, 1.9 assists, 46% 3pts
Who to foul: Who not to foul:
Tuttle - 68% James - 73%
Johnny Moran - 69% Koch - 81%
Austin Pehl – 58% Sonnen – 73%
Deon Mitchell – 71%
Chip Rank – 76%
Virginia Commonwealth Rams (22-6, 13-3)
Ken Pom: 51
ESPN BPI: 64
RPI: 81
SOS: 215
Record v. RPI:
1-25: 0-0
26-50: 0-2
51-100: 2-2
101-150: 6-2
151-200: 2-0
201+: 12-0
Best wins: @Akron (59) 76-75ot; South Florida (62) 69-46
Best losses: @Drexel (82) 58-64; @George Mason (90) 61-62
Worst losses: v.Georgia Tech (146) 60-73; Georgia St (138) 53-55
Players to watch
Brandford Burgess – 12.2 pts, 5.4 rebs,
Juvonte Reddic – 10.9 pts, 7.0 rebs, 1.4 steals, 1.2 blocks
Troy Daniels – 10.2 pts, 3.4 rebs, 40% 3pts
Darius Theus – 8.6 pts, 2.4 rebs, 4.8 assists
Who to foul: Who not to foul:
Theus - 60% Burgess - 79%
Treveon Graham - 63% Briante Weber - 81%
Reddic – 69% Rob Brandenburg – 70%
Daniels – 78%
VCU stands 11-1 at home, averaging 66 pts per game there while allowing just 52 ppg. Performance history-wise, they are virtually the same offensive team overall (67.4 ppg) but 6 point per game stingier on defense. Where they struggle the most is on the backboards (just 153rd in the nation) and shooting the ball (40%, good for 295th in the USofA). They are a well-balanced team, with 8 players receiving 15+ minutes, and their four scorers are all with 4-5 points of each other. They are led by 6’6 swingman senior forward Bradford Burgess – but then it is a youth movement, as two sophomores are really his tpo sidekicks as is junior guard Darius Theus, Not a tremendous amount of size, 7’0 center D.J Haley does play 15 minutes, but his stat contributions are minimal, and outside of 6’9 Juvonte Reddic, they generate their size mismatches from their backcourt. Their home wins have come by an average of 15 points – and before their shocker at George Mason (go Paul Hewitt!) , their 11 game winning streak came by an average of 11.3 pts. This is a good team with a swarming defense who has fared well against their better competition – losing by only 8 at Alabama, beating South Florida, crushing UAB – but their lapses (needing OT to beat William & Mary at home, losing to Georgia St and Georgia Tech (maybe they should just stay out of the state) do indicate a team who has some construction flaws and consistency issues.
Northern Iowa has a young roster – only 1 senior, guard Johnny Moran, but they play older as mostly juniors, sophomores and Moran get the minutes/production (with the exception of freshmen Deon Mitchell & Seth Tuttle. At 66 ppg scored and 62 allowed, this is a team who has walked a thin line all season, and their ercord reflect that. They have struggled outside of home, going only 3-8 (1-7 in MVC play) – which is odd considering their road play was so good to start the season (wins at Old Dominion and Iowa St), but has trailed off considerably since, obviously. Their offensive grinds down a little, to 60 ppg and their points allowed increases slightly to 64, but they are roughly the same team – simply can get caught in a road rut that see them lose by an average of 9+ point at home. With Tuttle (6’8) and Koch (6’9, 245) anchoring the front court, they do seem to have a slight advantage there – although VCU has played to virtual rebounds per game tie, whereas UNI gets outrebounded by 1 board per game.
The three point line will be part of this story, UNI likes to fire away – they rank 44th in the nation in 3pts made per game and make them at a killer 39% clip. Whereas, VCU has been rather stingy, 36th ranked, allowing only 30% of opponents 3s.
Buffet will be back with further game previews as time allows.
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