Division III in the Sus-Q Valley

Ah, yes. The famous bridge carrying U.S. Highway 30 over the broad and majestic Susquehanna River on its journey from Astoria to Atlantic City and back again and, in this span, connecting York and Lancaster counties in the heart of historic and bucolic south-central Pennsylvania. And it's also the bridge that will carry one basketball team to the other this Friday for perhaps the biggest basketball game of the year. That's right, Buffet readers! It's time for another of the period installments of Number Three on Paper but Number One in Your Hearts!

And what a humdinger the NCAA Division III men's basketball tournament has brought us this year, at least if you're me (if you're not me, feel free to stop reading): York (PA) College--current employer of my father, my mother, and my sister, and former employer of me (any nepotism there?)--heads across the river and into the Garden Spot to take on my alma mater, Franklin & Marshall College, at venerable old Meyser Gymnasium. Where will my loyalties lie? Don't know yet, so before we think about that more, let's look at how the teams made it into the field of 62 (yes, Division III still has the inexplicable byes for the top two seeds; I have no idea why they don't just add two more at-large teams).

Starting with the visitors, York College. The Spartans, of course, are helmed by Jeff Gamber, retiring after this season after 36 long seasons off Country Club Drive. Gamber boasts a career record of 475-414, which might not seem all that impressive, but let's remember that for at least half of his six-squared years there, YCP was a boring commuter school that didn't attract very many students, let alone basketball players, from outside immediate driving distance. In the last decade or so, though, the Spartans have been a much better D3 program, regularly challenging for, and sometimes winning, conference championships, going to the Final Four in 2005, and spending the entirety of the next season as a top 10 program before bowing out in the octavofinals. Gamber has capped his career by being named Capital Athletic Conference (CAC) coach of the year--an award now named for him--this season for the fifth time.

The Spartans have not been a dominant team this season--18-10 record, 10-6 in the conference--and finished in a three-way tie for third-place in the conference and, after whatever the series of tie-breakers is, entered the conference tournament as the fourth seed. Only the top 6 seeds in the CAC make the conference tournament, and YCP squeaked by Frostburg State (13-13, 10-6), 65-61 in the first round before upsetting top-seeded St. Mary's (MD) in a 61-58 thriller in the second round, with junior guard Julian Watson hitting the jumper that put the Spartans ahead to stay with 31 seconds left and senior forward Paul Kouvaris providing the final margin from the foul line with 0.6 seconds left after rebounding the Eagles' last chance. [St. Mary's, by the way, received an at-large bid to the tournament and hosts Bethany (WV) College on Thursday.]

For the CAC championship game, the Spartans headed deep into Confederate Territory to the campus of Mary Washington College, alma mater of my high school friend Dieter and across the Rappahannock River from the bloodiest battle (as far as I know) ever fought on my brother's birthday. (Why is everything in this article about my family?) Mary Washington (18-9, 12-4), the second seed, had survived sixth-seeded Hood College in the semifinals, 56-54. Mary Washington controlled most of the first half, but a late spurt by York cut the halftime lead to 30-26. Kouvaris gave York their first lead, 33-32, with a fall-way jumper with 13:31 left, and a few moments later, York (PA) Suburban HS alumnus Mitch Kemp gave the Spartans the lead for good with a three-pointer--his only bucket of the night--that broke a 34-34 deadlock. From there, York gradually increased the lead, extending it to 6 with three minutes left before forcing turnovers--including a drawn charge by Kemp--on the next four Mary Washington possessions before closing the game out with a comfortable-looking 59-51 margin.

York is led by the previously mentioned Kouravis, the CAC player of the year this season, with 16.9 points and 6.6 rebounds per game. The also previously mentioned Watson seems to be the second best player, averaging 13.1 points per game and leading the team with 2.7 assists. Unfortunately, with 2.8 turnovers per game, he is not an Otter Watch candidate. Nobody else averages double figures in points, but five players average, including Kemp, average at least 6 points and 19 minutes per game. Beyond that, three players average about 5 minutes per game, so it seems like York only goes seven deep in terms of its regular rotation.

So York had a decent overall season, and has been playing well of late, but they have a daunting job ahead of them: Heading into Lancaster to face the Franklin & Marshall Diplomats, the ninth-ranked team in the country and a perennial feature of the D3 tournament.

Gary, Indiana's native son Glenn Robinson--oh, wait a second, not that Glenn Robinson--one of the only coaches (actually, for all I know, the only coach) who's been around for longer than Jeff Gamber, remains at the helm for F&M. Robinson's resume needs no embellishing--over 1,000 games coached, 800+ wins and counting, five D3 Final Fours, etc., etc., etc. Plus, he hung out with the Jackson 5 in the mid-60s. He is one hip cat.

And it seems like he has the Dips on cruise control this season, and I say that both because they have, in fact, cruised to a 25-2 (16-2) record and because it seems like their schedule would make a Syracuse fan blush: as far as I can tell, just two games (a 77-68 win over CAC regular-season champ St. Mary's and an 81-71 win over Liberty League regular-season champs Hobart, where of course I spent my freshman year; again, must everything in this article come back to me?) against teams (neither ranked) in the field of 62. In his defense, I suppose, teams are much more limited in their scheduling in Division III than in Division I, just because they don't have the resources to, for instance, fly to Hawaii or Anchorage or Puerto Rico for a made-for-television game on an aircraft carrier; really, they can only play teams that are within a few hours' van drive of campus. Still, it's a pretty weak schedule this season for the Dips.

Nevertheless, as a player, all you can do is beat the other team, and F&M has mostly done that this season, with, as mentioned, just two slip-ups (one at home and one on the road) in conference play. And they absolutely rolled through the Centennial Conference tournament, stomping Washington 100-69 and avenging one of their two losses against Muhlenberg, 71-55, in the final.

The Dips, like York, are led by the conference player of the year, Georgio Milligan, who, despite his Italian-sounding first name, is a rare African-American at mostly lilly-white F&M. Milligan, a senior guard, is a straight stat-stuffer, leading the team with 18.9 points, 4.9 assists, and 2.2 steals per game. Only one other player--a presumed Islamo-fascist freedom hater (and I should know the type, since I'm engaged to one) from Lebanon, junior forward Hayk Gyokchyan, averages double figures for the Dips, but they seem to be a deep team: five other players getting major minutes, and four more averaging between 8 and 15 minutes per game. They also have three players in addition to Milligan who were named all-conference, one on the second team and two honorable mention--which, I suppose, means that they weren't really named all-conference, but whatever; the F&M website says they were.

So that's it. After watching the Terps be thoroughly out-classed tonight and the USMNT repeatedly pull the off-side trap to perfection (if by "pull the off-side trap to perfection" I mean "play flat across the back and get lucky that the whiny flopping Azzuri couldn't time their runs), I don't really have the energy or the gumption to write much more of a preview. Plus, of course, I don't really know anything about either team, not having actually seen them actually play any basketball. For whom will I root? Dunno yet...One the one hand, F&M's my alma mater, whereas all YCP ever did was exploit my labor. On the other hand, F&M is an absurdly elitist school that would be Rick Santorum's worst nightmare of what President Obama apparently wants our higher education system to be, except of course for the fact that the school is full of the children of snotty rich Republicans. York College, on the other hand, is full of Pennsyltucky natives (as I am) whose parents cling to guns and religion. So, again, whom to root for? Well, the last time York came out of nowhere to win the conference title and get an automatic bid to the third-biggest dance, they went to the Final Four. Still, it's doubtful that they could pull that feat again. F&M, on the other hand, has only lost twice all season and is a top-10 team right now--not necessarily a national championship favorite, but certainly a Final Four contender and a team with a legitimate chance to win the title. So under the theory that, starting in the second round, I'd like the team I'm rooting for to win the whole thing, I'll root for F&M in the first round, too.

By the way, it should be noted that Trinity (TX) (20-8) plays Mary Hardin-Baylor (25-2) in the first round. I know nothing about that game except that "Mary Hardin-Baylor" is a really cumbersome name for a college. Enjoy the D3 tournament, Buffet readers.

On the Third day of conference tourneys, the Buffet gave to me - LEAP YEAR Edition

Horizon chalk walk blowouts,

Copious Waiting Line Action,

and an Upstart from the Upstate...

Today's tournament action:

Atlantic Sun tournament

8 Jacksonville v 1 Belmont, 2:30pm ET ESPN3 (yes, this will be streaming on the Buffet's computer today

7 Lipscomb @ 2 Mercer, 8:30 pm ET, ESPN3

Big South Tournament

http://www.bigsouthsports.com/liveEvents/liveEvents.dbmlATCLID=205343174&SPSID=25346&SPID=1987&DB_LANG=C&&DB_OEM_ID=4800)

Game 3: 7 VMI v. 2 Coastal Carolina, 12pm

Game 4: 3 Campbell v. 6 Winthrop, 2pm

Game 5: 8 High Point v. 1 UNC-Asheville, 6pm

Game 6: 4 Charleston Southern v. 5 Liberty, 8pm

Ohio Valley tournament

5 Southeast Missouri v. 8 Eastern Kentucky, 7:00pm ET (OVCSports.TV)

6 Austin Peay v. 7 Jacksonville State, 9:00PM (OVCSports.TV)

Patriot League tournament

8 Navy @ 1 Bucknell, 7pm ET (http://www.patriotleague.org/allaccess/)

5 Lafayette @ 4 Holy Cross, 7 pm ET (http://www.patriotleague.org/allaccess/)

7 Colgate @ 2 Lehigh, 7pm ET (http://www.patriotleague.org/allaccess/)

6 Army @ 3 American, 730pm ET (http://www.patriotleague.org/allaccess/)

West Coast Conference

8 Portland v. 9 Santa Clara, 9:00pm ET (http://www.wccsports.com/allaccess/?media=306184)

Last night in...

The Horizon League:

Damian Eargle paced 5 Penguins scoring in double-figures with 17 points, to go with 9 rebounds, as Youngstown State raced out to a 12-2 lead, and never looked back, eliminating Wisconsin-Green Bay 77-60. Dushawn Brooks added 16, Kendrick Perry had 15, Ashen Ward 14, and Blake Allen chipped in 11 more to go with 7 assists and 3 steals. Alec Brown had 20 points and 9 rebounds for the overwhelmed Phoenix, who never led and committed 17 turnovers.

Speaking of racing out to huge leads - Wisconsin-Milwaukee scored 34 of their games first 40 points, going so far as to holding Illinois-Chicago scoreless for a 5:49 stretch of the first half. James Haarsma had 18 and Ryan Allen added 17, while Tony Meier chipped in 7 while hauling down 11 rebounds, as UWM blew out the Flames 68-55, leading by as many as 28 points. UIC scored only 14 points in the first half, got 14 and 5 from Hayden Humes, Darrin Williams had 10 and 5, and Gary Talton had 11, 4 and 2 in the Flames 2011/12 finale.

A turnover fest was won by the more talented team, as Detroit upended Loyola (IL) 80-71, leading for almost 35 minutes. Despite committing 22 turnovers and allowing 50% shooters, cover a 3 pt shooter, please Titans, Detroit had 5 players in double figures, led by Eli Holman's 20 points, to go with 6 rebounds and 2 blocks. Chase Simon filled the stat sheet accompanying his 19 points with 3 rebounds, 3 assists, and 4 steals, Doug Anderson had 18 points and 3 steals, and Jason Calliste & Ray McCallum had 10 points a piece.

A close first half was blown open by a 13-0 run to second half, as Butler "began" their defense of their 2-time runner up status with a 70-52 victory. Andrew Smith had 25 and 7, Roosevelt Jones added 11 with 5 assists, and Chrishawn Hopkins added 10 points, and veteran Ronald Nored had 9 points, 3 rebounds and 6 assists. Cole Darling had 12 points and Horizon League newcomer of the year Julius Mays had 11 in a losing effort for the Raiders.

Conference tournament previews:

2012 General Shale Brick Atlantic Sun Championship

Building the American Dream

Mar 29 - March 3, University Center @ Mercer University, capacity: 3200

What was once a two team race, saw Mercer lose 3 of 4 to close the season, and Belmont steamrolled to a 3 game cushion in clinching the regular season championship, winning their final 11 games (and 13 of 14, and, for that matter, 17 of 19). Not to discount the other A-Sun teams, and we certainly won't - but of note is that the tournament is in Mercer - and as it happens (you sneaky A-Sun schedule makers!) Mercer and Belmont just played at the University Center on Saturday. In that game, Mercer led 45-36 with 12:50 remaining, but then a 7-minute, 16-6 run gave Belmont the lead ... the teams traded leads often down the stretch, but free throws down the stretch lifted Belmont to the win. Essentially, on the same court that a hypothetical championship will take place, these teams played to a draw (and in early December, when they first played at Belmont, the Bruins won by 4).

Belmont's season began in dramatic fashion, losing to Duke by 1 at Cameron (although it took a buzzer 3 to give it that final spread). Nonetheless, the Bruins trailed by just 1 with :51 to play ... Belmont losing only Jordan Saunders (8.1 ppg. 46% 3pts) among their key contributors from the NCAA tournament team a year ago, had (have?) big expectations this year - but their results plagued with inconsistency. They pushed Duke to the limit, won at Middle Tennessee State - but were blown out @Memphis, lost @Miami (OH) and dropped a home game to Lipscomb. Road struggles and losses to bottom tier conference teams are just not the story of experience, which Belmont has. Nonetheless, their conference dominance cannot be ignored. Now - can Belmont can off the Waiting Line... and in? The computer numbers give them hope - but their actual results don't - one good win (@Middle Tenn St at 47) is all they have - Marshall getting their door blown off by Memphis exposed that team. And some real tough losses (@Duke by 1, @Mid Tenn again by 3) But they even gave back that Marshall win and lost to Lipscomb and Miami OH. Without those two 200+ losses, we might be having a different discussion. But they did and we're not.

Mercer limped down the stretch, a 12-2 conference record quickly became a 13-5 conference record. But, a lot of those issues come on the road - they were 12-2 at home, losing to Summit runner-up So Dakotah St (57 RPI) and by 1 point in the season finale to Belmont. This is a solid home team, that gets to play at home for the tournament - overall their home games came to average of a 12 pt margin (15 if you subtract the two losses)

One of the better, unsung story lines of the 2011/12 season came out of the Atlantic Sun was the rise of the South Carolina Upstate Spartans, in just their first season as full-fledged members of D1 (they had been playing D1 as of Fall, 1997 but their sport teams (except for M/W soccer) could not play in NCAA tournaments). SC Upstate finished the season in a tie for 2nd in the A-Sun at 13-5, and will be the third seed in the upcoming tournament. Their season featured a home win over Belmont, a 4 point loss at Dayton, and an RPI of 128. (higher than Boston College, Georgia Tech, Texas A&M, Southern Cal and Georgia). And they come in winning 6 of 7. With A-Sun POY Torrey Craig (a sophomore) and A-Sun Freshman of the year Ty Greene, this SC Upstate should be fun to watch in the tourney, and especially heading into 2012-13.

Only East Tennessee State & Jacksonville hold victories over 2 of SC Upstate, Belmont & Mercer.

Also, one thing to watch is the Atlantic Sun is won on team offense and defense/rebounding - of the top 10 in individual scoring - Torrey Craig of SC Upstate is 1st, then Johnson from Belmont is 6th, and no one from Mercer is to be found. I bet that's rare for a conference with such strong demarcation from the top schools to the rest.

Buffet picks: Upset city, sort of. Mercer is a dominant home team. The tournament is in their gym. They've played Belmont tough twice, and despite Belmont's tournament experience and ability to compete in a hostile environment, it just seems the stars are aligned for the Bears to do this.

Upset special: North Florida, who went to overtime in Manhattan, KS versus the Wildcats, come in winning 3 straight, including a 9 point win over Mercer, have just the right formula to pull the upset. (but they won't)

Schedule

A staggered start to the A-Sun action, sees the top seeds getting started early - and in an interesting move, instead of protecting the top seeds by automatically having them host the tournament (Mercer worked it out for themselves this year), they forced the lower seeds into back to back action, while the top seed hypothetically get Thursday off.

Unless noted, all games can be found on ASUTV & Charter Sports Southeast

Wednesday February 29

Game 1; #1 Belmont v. #8 Jacksonville, 230pm et, ESPN3

Game 2: #7 Lipscomb @ #2 Mercer, 8:30pm et, ESPN3

Thursday, March 1

Game 3: #5 North Florida v. #4 East Tennessee State University, 2:30pm et, ESPN3

Game 4: #3 USC Upstate v. #6 Florida Gulf Coast, 830pm et, ESPN3

Friday, March 2

Game 5: Winner Game 1 v. Winner Game 3, 6pm et

Game 6: Winner Game 2 v. Winner Game 2, 830pm et

Saturday, March 3

Championship: Winner Game 5 v. Winner Game 6, 7:00pm et, ESPN2

Belmont Bruins (24-7, 16-2)

Ken Pom: 23

ESPN BPI: 36

RPI: 59

SOS: 173

Best wins: @Middle Tenn St (47) 87-84 2ot; Marshall (62) 79-74

Best losses: @Duke (3) 76-77; @Mid Tenn St (47) 62-65; @Marshall (62) 86-87

Worst losses: @Miami OH (235) 61-66; Lipscomb (224) 74-85

Players to watch

Kerron Johnson – 14.0 pts, 2.8 rebs, 5.2 assists, 1.5 steals

Ian Clark – 12.4 pts, 2.5 rebs, 2.3 assists, 1.0 steals

Drew Hanlen – 11.2 pts, 3.3 rebs, 3.9 assists, 49% 3pts

Mick Hedgepeth – 9.8 pts, 5.7 rebs

Scott Saunders – 10.1 pts, 5.1 rebs

Who to foul: Who not to foul:

Hedgepeth - 62% Johnson - 78%

Blake Jenkins - 68% Clark – 81%

Hanlen – 74%

J.J. Mann – 84%

Saunders – 77%

Mercer Bears (21-10, 13-5)

Ken Pom: 100

ESPN BPI: 101

RPI: 122

SOS: 250

Best wins: SC Upstate x2 (128) @73-66, 61-47

Best losses: @Seton Hall (44) 77-80 ot; @Belmont (59) 78-82

Worst losses: @E. Tenn State (191) 61-76; @Georgia (197) 58-72; @Jacksonville (265) 75-81; @East Tenn St (191) 61-76

Players to watch

Langston Hall – 11.3 pts, 3.1 rebs, 4.0 assist, 1.2 steals

Justin Cecil – 10.6 pts, 3.6 rebs

Jakob Gollon – 10.3 pts, 5.7 rebs, 3.5 assists, 1.5 steals

Bud Thomas - 9.0 pts, 4.4 rebs, 2.1 assists, 1.2 steals

Who to foul: Who not to foul:

Bud Thomas - 62% Cecil - 80%

Daniel Coursey - 60% Hall – 75%

Gollon – 82%

Travis Smith – 81%

USC Upstate Spartans (20-11, 13-5)

Ken Pom: 130

ESPN BPI: 154

RPI: 128

SOS: 226

Best wins: Belmont (59) 79-78

Best losses: @Dayton (61) 68-72; @Belmont (59) 79-88

Worst losses: @J’Ville (265) 74-77ot; Toledo (245) 70-75; @E.Tenn St (191) 73-88

Players to watch

Torrey Craig – 17.1 pts, 7.9 rebs, 1.3 steals, 1.1 blks

Ty Greene – 11.2 pts, 2.9 rebs, 2.4 assists, 1.4 steals, 40% 3pts

Ricardo Glenn – 9.3 pts, 6.9 rebs, 1.4 assists

Jodd Maxey - 7.5 pts, 4.8 rebs, 1.0 assists, 1.6 stls, 1.3 blks

Babatunde Olumuyiwa - 5.9 pts, 3.3 rebs, 1.1 blks

Who to foul: Who not to foul:

Glenn - 57% Green - 77%

Maxey - 60%

Adrian Rodgers – 55%

Olumuyiwa – 53%

Other players to watch:

Markeith Cummings, Kennesaw St, (NIT) Jr, 15.4 pts, 5.3 rebs, 2.1 assists, 1.1 steals

Adam Sollazo, East Tennessee St, Sr, 15.0 pts, 5.6 rebs, 4.4 assists, 1.7 steals

Adam Pegg, Stetson, Jr, 14.9 pts, 5.5 rebs, 1.4 assists

Parker Smith, North Florida, Jr, 14.5 pts, 2.5 rebs, 1.0 assists, 42% 3pts

Chris Perez, Stetson, So, 13.5 pts, 4.5 rebs, 1.8 assists, 1.1 steals

Sherwood Brown, Florida Gulf Coast, Jr, 12.9 pts, 6.0 rebs, 1.2 steals

Aaron Graham, Stetson, So, 12.7 pts, 4.3 rebs, 2.5 assists

Delbert Love, Kennesaw St, Fr, (NIT) 12.4 pts, 3.0 rebs, 3.0 assists, 1.7 steals

Isiah Brown, East Tennessee St, Sr, 12.4 pts, 6.1 rebs, 1.1 assists, 1.4 blks, 1.5 steals

Aloys Cabell, Jacksonville, So, 12.2 pts, 1.8 rebs, 2.5 assists, 40% 3pts

Bernard Thompson, Florida Gulf Coast, Fr, 11.9 pts, 5.2 rebs, 2.2 assists, 1.8 steals

Travis Wallace, North Florida, So, 11.1 pts, 5.3 rebs

Jerron Granberry, North Florida, Jr, 10.9 pts, 3.0 rebs, 1.0 assists, 40% 3pts

Glenn Powell, Jacksonville, Jr, 10.9 pts, 6.3 rebs

Spencer Dixon, Kennesaw St, (NIT) 13.4 pts, 2.8 rebs, 3.8 assists, 1.5 steals

Aaron Anderson, Kennesaw St, (NIT) 8.9 pts, 9.0 rebs, 1.1 assists

Justin Glenn, Sr, Lipscomb, 8.1 pts, 7.3 rebs, 1.6 assists, 1.6 blks

Tommy Hubbard, Sr, East Tennessee St, 9.9 pts, 7.1 rebs, 1.1 assists, 2.1 steals

Brett Comer, Fr, Florida Gulf Coast, 8.7 pts, 3.7 rebs, 5.6 assists, 1.2 steals

Atlantic Sun Conference Jack Leasure Award: Drew Hanlen, G, Belmont - 84/173 (49%) - when your percentage hovers around 50 and you've launched that many 3s, Jack Leasure salutes you. Parker Smith was game, with his 217 3s and a 42% clip. But this title when to Mr. Hanlen.

Atlantic Sun Player of the Year: Torrey Craig, USC Upstate, Soph F

Atlantic Sun Coach of the Year: Eddie Payne, USC Upstate

Atlantic Sun Freshman of the Year: Ty Greene, USC Upstate, G

Atlantic Sun Defensive Player of the Year: Ian Clark, Belmont, Junior G

First-Team All Atlantic Sun:

Torrey Craig, G, So, USC Upstate

Ian Clark, G, Jr, Belmont

Drew Hanlen, G, Sr, Belmont

Kerron Johnson, G, Jr, Belmont

Adam Sollazzo, G, Sr, East Tennessee St

Langston Hall, G, So, Mercer

Second-Team All Atlantic Sun:

Parker Smith, G, Jr, No Florida

Adam Pegg, F-C, Jr, Stetson

Sherwood Brown, G, Jr, Florida Gulf Coast

Mick Hedgeperth, F-C, Sr, Belmont

Markeith Cummings, Jr, G, Kennesaw State

Morels from the Atlantic Sun

Lipscomb redshirt FR Carter Sanderson, son of Lipsccomb coach, Scott, is also the grandson of former Alabama coach Wimp Sanderson

Belmont senior Mick Hedgepeth also named IF and P of the year at Belmont

Belmont RS freshman Chad Lang is the son of former Phoenix Sun (among other teams) Andrew Lang.

2012 Ohio Valley Conference Tournament:

Music City Madness

Feb 29-March 3, Nashville Municipal Auditorium., capacity: 8000

Welcome to the first non-BCS conference that some BCS fans will be watching - this means you Illinois, Texas, NC State, Miami, Colorado, Arizona, Washington, West Virginia, South Florida and Mississippi State fan - this is a tournament where you want chalk and no bids stolen from the bottom of the Bubble. Murray. Murray. Murray. Murray. Murray. Mr. Biblical Reference Headline himself, Isaiah Canaan looks to the lead the Racers through Nashville and straight to the NCAA tournament. A top 10 team, national publicity, these aren't the usual headlines for the OVC tournament, but that's how dominant the Racers have been. A race that was over before it started, Murray dropped one conference game all year, an inexplicable home loss to Tennessee St, that featured so many unforced errors (no offense to the Coach Cooper's Tigers, who did finish as OVC's 2 seed) that the game just felt like it featured a time buckling under the pressure of an undefeated season. Since that game they went into SE Missouri and handled a team they originally struggled with in Murray, pummeled a short-handed but still loaded St. Mary's team, and re-asserted themselves 80-62 at Tenn State. Simply put, there's no reason to spend your reading time talking about where they can be exploited - depth, rebounding, penetration that gets Canaan and/or the thin frontline in foul trouble. Doubling Canaan and forcing a talented, but inexperienced at being the main scorer supporting cast to do the job - oh wait, we just wasted your time. In any event - in addition to those other wins this team has beaten both of the top teams in C-USA, bat Dayton, and ran through the OVC. Waiting Line... Murray St is a lock, right now, it's how high can they climb. A loss in the conference tournament, probably will shuttle them down to a 6 - We don't see them falling to a 7, unless the loss is strong and the committee decides they're not as good as their record (as every BCS-conference team they are matched up against in the tournament will undoubtedly feel - hi Butler 2009-2010!). Or maybe just a 5, depending on what happens with Florida St, the Mountain West conglomerate, etc. We don't see a 3 seed in their future, just not the stockpile of the caliber of wins necessary for that - but a 4 seed is reasonable, and if they cruise to tournament championship, as expected, it is probably likely.

In deference, to the Tigers, Tennessee State did have a nice 19-win season and win at Murray, and come into the tournament having won 9 of 10, and 11 of 13. That's not bad momentum.

Morehead St, less one Kenneth Faried comes in having won 4 of 5 (losing to the MAC's Bowling Green - otherwise they'd still 4 of 5, so not sure why we pointed out who the one loss was to)

Jacksonville St has also won 4 of 5 (and 3 straight), and went to OT with Tennessee St on Valentine's Day.

They sort of played themselves of being a team of note - almost like they spent every last drop of energy at Murray St on February 2, but they did lead the Racers for about 30 minutes of that game before collapsing, so they deserve at least a reminder of that effort here.

The Buffet picks: Rest easy Waiting Line... teams, every game might not end up a cinch, but the tournament will likely be, Murray St is just that much better than the rest - explaining a 9 national ESPN/USA Today poll ranking and a 29 RPI (dependent on the strength of your opponents) yet a 182 SOS

Upset special: None.

Schedule

Unless noted, all games can be found on OVCSports.TV

Wednesday February 29

Game 1; #5 Southeast Missouri v. #8 Eastern Kentucky, 7pm et

Game 2: #6 Austin Peay v. #7 Jacksonville State, 9pm ET

Thursday, March 1

Game 3: Winner Game 1 v. 4 Tennessee Tech, 6pm ET

Game 4: Winner Game 2 v. 3 Morehead State, 8pm ET

Friday, March 2

Game 5: Winner Game 3 v. 1 Murray State, 6pm ET, ESPNU

Game 6: Winner Game 4 v. 2 Tennessee State, 8pm ET, ESPNU (delayed to 1230am)

Saturday, March 3

Championship: Winner Game 5 v. Winner Game 6, 1:00pm ET, ESPN2

Murray State Racers (28-1, 15-1)

Ken Pom: 48

ESPN BPI: 35

RPI: 29

SOS: 183 (rose dramatically thanks to St. Mary's)

Best wins: v.Southern Miss (13) 90-81 2ot; @Memphis (20) 76-72; St. Mary's (31) 65-51; Dayton (61) 75-58

Worst losses: Tennessee State (123) 68-72

Players to watch

Isaiah Canaan – 19.4 pts, 3.2 rebs, 3.8 assists, 1.4 steals, 48% 3pts

Donte Poole – 13.9 pts, 3.6 rebs, 1.5 assists, 2.0 steals, 40% 3pts

Ivan Aska – 11.3 pts, 5.8 rebs

Jewuan Long – 8.8 pts, 3.1 , 2.6 assists, 1.1 steals, 47% 3pts

Edward Daniel – 6.9 pts, 5.3 rebs, 1.6 blks

Who to foul: Who not to foul:

Daniel - 62% Canaan - 84%

Stacy Wilson - 56% Poole - 85%

Zay Jackson - 67% Aska - 87%

Tennessee State Tigers (19-11, 11-5)

Ken Pom: 182

ESPN BPI: 180

RPI: 123

SOS: 186

Best wins: @Murray St (29) 72-68

Best losses:

Worst losses: @W.Kentucky (223) 49-52; @J’Ville St (225) 65-72; @E.Kentucky (215) 68-73; @Austin Peay (189) 63-69; @Tenn Tech (156) 86-92; v.Miss Valley St (147) 89-90 2ot; @St Louis (35) 37-71; @UNC (5) 69-102

Players to watch

Robert Covington – 18.1 pts, 8.1 rebs, 1.4 assists, 1.6 steals, 1.3 blocks, 46% 3pts

Patrick Miller – 11.2 pts, 3.6 rebs, 3.5 assists, 1.5 steals

Jordan Cyphers – 18.8 pts, 1.7 rebs

Kellen Thornton – 9.0 pts, 4.3 rebs

Wil Peters – 7.7 pts, 2.8 rebs, 3.3 assists 1.2 steals

Who to foul: Who not to foul:

Miller - 67% Convington - 78%

Thornton – 60% Cyphers - 74%

M.J. Rhett – 54% Peters - 79%

Jay Harris – 53% Moore – 74%

SE Missouri St Redhawks (14-15, 9-7)

Ken Pom: 234

ESPN BPI: 239

RPI: 254

SOS: 299

Best wins: Morehead St (177) 67-51; Austin Peay (189) 67-51

Best losses: Murray St x2 (29) @73-81, 66-75

Worst losses: @Central Arkansas (316) 72-88; @Arkansas St (248) 63-79; @Bradley (259) 65-66; UMKC (266) 69-74; @E.Kentucky (215) 59-63; SMU (220) 65-84; @Jacksonville St (225) 59-69

Players to watch

Tyler Stone – 14.3 pts, 7.1 pts, 1.2 blks

Marland Smith – 12.3 pts, 3.0 rebs, 2.5 assists, 40% 3pts

Leon Powell – 10.9 pts, 7.0 rebs, 1.9 blks

Nick Niemczyk – 9.1 pt, 2.5 rebs, 2.0 assists

Marcus Brister – 7.8 pts, 4.3 rebs, 3.7 assists

Corey Wilford – 6.2 pts, 1.2 rebs

Who to foul: Who not to foul:

Stone - 63% Smith - 80%

Powell - 51% Niemczyk - 89%

Brister - 46% Wilford - 90%

Michael Porter - 65% Lucas Nutt - 90%

Other players to watch

Kevin Murphy, Tennessee Tech, Sr, 20.6 pts, 5.5 rebs, 2.4 asts, 42% 3pt

Jud Dillard, Tennessee Tech, Jr, 18.0 pts, 8.7 rebs, 1.2 assists, 1.0 steals

Jaron Jones, Eastern Kentucky, Sr, 16.7 pts, 4.4 rebs, 1.9 assists, 1.5 steals

Jeremy Granger, Eastern Illinois, Sr, 15.9 pts, 3.4 rebs, 3.0 assists, 1.0 stlss

Mike Liabo, Tennessee-Martin, So, 15.3 pts, 4.0 rebs, 2.6 assists

Mark Yelovich, SIU-Edwardsville, Jr, 14.9 pts, 6.1 rebs, 1.2 assists

Myles Taylor, Tennessee-Martin, Fr, 13.7 pts, 5.2 rebs

Brian Williams, Jacksonville St, So, 13.3 pts, 2.8 rebs, 3.2 assists, 1.4 steals

TyShawn Edmondson, Austin Peay, Sr 12.5 (down from 17.1 in 2011), 3.3 rebs, 1.6 stls

Josh Terry, Austin Peay, Sr, 12.1 pts, 4.0 rebs, 2.0 assists, 1.9 steals

John Fraley, Austin Peay, Sr, 11.9 pts, 8.9 rebs, 1.6 blks

Kris Davis, SIU-Edwardsville, Fr, 11.7 pts, 2.7 rebs, 2.5 assists, 60% 3pts (55-92) -

Future Mad Bomber Alert-

Melvin Baker, Austin Peay, Sr, 11.5 pts, 6.1 rebs, 1.0 steals

Alfonzo McKinnie, Eastern Illinois, So, 10.2 pts, 7.0 rebs

Zac Swansey, Tennessee Tech, Sr, 8.2 pts, 2.5 rebs, 6.0 assists, 2.2 steals, 40% 3pts

Ohio Valley Conference Jack Leasure Award: Isaiah Canaan. This one was easy, although Mike Liabo launched an incredible 223 threes this year, making less than 1 of 3 suggests you should stop. Canaan hosited a solid 190 threes, making 48% of them.

Ohio Valley Conference Player of the Year: Isaiah Canaan, Jr, Murray State

Ohio Valley Conference Rookie of the Year: Myles Taylor, Fr, Tennessee State

Ohio Valley Conference Coach of the Year: Steve Prohm, Murray State

First-Team All Ohio Valley:

Isaiah Canaan, Jr, Murray St

Robert Covington, Jr, Tennessee State

Kevin Murphy, Sr, Tennessee Tech

Donte Poole, Sr, Murray State

Jud Dillard, Jr, Tennessee Tech

Second-Team All Ohio Valley:

Jaron Jones, Sr, Eastern Kentucky

Tyler Stone, So, Southeast Missouri St

John Fraley, Sr, Austin Peay

Jeremy Granger, Sr, Eastern Illinois

Ivan Aska, Sr, Murray State

Mark Yelovich, Jr, SIU-Edwardsville

Morels from the Ohio Valley

Leopards is a cool and unique nickname, way to go Lafayette.

Tennessee-Martin junior guard Dane Smith's twin brother Dwayne plays at UT Martin

Tenn Tech Sr F Bassey Inameti's father, Ephraim, played World Cup futbol for Nigeria's national team

SE Missouri St Asst Coach Jeremy Case played for his father's teammate Bill Self at KU from 04-08

All in the family at See Mo - head coach Dickey Nutt is the father of Redhawk players Logan & Lucas, and the younger brother of Ole Miss head football coach, Houston Nutt.

Eastern Illinois Jr Jonathan Miller is the younger brother of Chicago Bears rookie DT Jordan Miller

At the time of this Buffet entry, Eastern Illinois is coachless.

Austin Pear freshman Chris Freeman is a cousin of NBA Hall of Famer Bob Lanier

2012 Patriot League Tournament

Feb 29- March 7 (intermittently), each game at campus of higher seed

It was a big year in the Patriot League, for the first time two teams will enter tournament play with 22+ wins, and three with 19+. All games are available on Patriot League All-Access, and the semifinals and championship games will be aired on the CBS family of sports networks. AND If last Saturday's was any indication, the 2012 Patriot League Men's Basketball Tournament could be full of surprises. The top four seeds in the postseason tournament were all given a test by the bottom half standing teams, and American, somewhat overlooked after pre-conference 4 game losing streak and then intermittent road losses (and getting swept by Bucknell) won three of four to capture the conference 3 seed. American features a pair of SEC exiles - 6'5 Sr F Charles Hinkle, a Vanderbilt, averaging 18.8 ppg (which is more than 4 times higher than his 2010-11 averages - talk about stepping up when given an opportunity), and 5.4 rebounds & Troy Brewer, a 6'5 Sr G and Georgia transfer putting up 12 pts, 3.3 rebounds and 2 assists per game.

Bucknell had long clinched the top seed, and held off a feisty Navy bunch, in advance of these teams' first round rematch. Bucknell's season was highlighted by a 12 game winning streak that saw them open up 10-0 in conference. A late two game losing streak to a pair of hot Patriot League upset candidates Lehigh (which was, interestingly, at Bucknell - which is where the two teams would play in the tournament, if they face) and @Holy Cross (albeit by a total of 5 points between the two games). Mike Muscala, the Patriot league's 2011 POY Cameron Ayers and Joe Willman are back, for a team who was just five points away from an undefeated conference season... and don't think Muscala might not be a just a bit motivated after falling just short of Lehigh's CJ McCollum for the 2012 POY award.

But Bucknell is soooo last year - Lehigh is the team to talk about, after school recording setting 23 victory season, clinched as John Adams was elected president, added Quincy to his name and was elected president again, then hit a 3-pointer with 11 seconds left to give the Mountain Hawks to a 74-72 win in overtime at Army, and leave them alone in second place. CJ McCollum, who apparently didn't like sharing the Patriot League POY award, took it back after a spectacular junior season. McCollum first won the prize his freshman year at Lehigh, when he led the Mountain Hawks to the NCAA tournament - now he looks to do it again, carrying a 5 game winning streak (and 8 of 9) into the tournament. This is a team that lost by just 9 at Iowa State and even more impressively (and led at halftime) at the Breslin Center versus Michigan State on Dec 22 (a game where Michigan native Holden Greiner, cool name, went for 24 points, having grown up dreaming to play in East Lansing, now he got to shine against the coach who shattered his dream (although, his comments about the game weren't quite as pointed). And, a reminder for those who like intrigue - Bucknell lost 2 games at home all season - one of those losses was to Lehigh (and, for reader Stephen J. Avillo, who is currently wondering who the other teams is, that would be Jimmy Patsos' Loyola (Maryland) Greyhounds).

Holy Cross is the hottest team entering the Patriot League Tournament, as the Crusaders have won six straight, including a pretty dominating late home win over Bucknell (final score was 54-52, but was 28-10 at halftime, included a furious late run by Bucknell and a Cameron Ayers three pointer with 3 seconds left), during the Bison's brief, late-season 2 game swoon. The Crusaders earned a split with all of the other 3 top seeds. Watch for developing Freshman Justin Burrell, the Patriot "rookie" of the year, he's been in double figures in 3 of the last 4 games and was the catalyst behind their wins over Bucknell & Lafayette.

Buffet predicts: Home court in college hoops is just so crucial, the Bison will be on it for every game they play. That potential second round matchup with a Holy Cross unit that will have won 7 straight coming in, is dangerous, but Bucknell tasted defeated against HC one, and I doubt they liked it very much. Bucknell is the pick.

Upset special: With road upsets, the Buffet looks for teams with big time scorers or deadly shooters who could get hot and unstoppable. A Mad Bomber is you will. Which American U has, and helped the Buffet's official pick become Bucknell, because AU upsetting Lehigh with their three top scorers at 40+% 3pts shooters. But, we're also a sucker for C.J. McCollum. Now, a team who finished with 3 conference losses and only 1 game out of first isn't much of an upset call. Real big limb we're going out on here, we know. But, the upset would be Holy Cross over Bucknell in round 2 - leading to Lehigh winning the tourney and McCollum wining Patriot League tournament MVP and a tournament automatic bid.

Schedule (unless noted with the national network, all games can be found at Patriot League All-Access (http://www.patriotleague.org/allaccess/)

Wednesday, February 29 - At campus of higher seed

Game 1: 8 Navy @ 1 Bucknell, 7pm ET (http://www.patriotleague.org/allaccess/)

Game 2: 5 Lafayette @ 4 Holy Cross, 7 pm ET (http://www.patriotleague.org/allaccess/)

Game 3: 7 Colgate @ 2 Lehigh, 7pm ET (http://www.patriotleague.org/allaccess/)

Game 4: 6 Army @ 3 American, 730pm ET (http://www.patriotleague.org/allaccess/)

Saturday, March 3 - At campus of higher seed
Game 5: Game 1 Winner v. Game 2 Winner; 2 or 430pm ET, CBS Sports Network

Game 6: Game 3 Winner v. Game 4 Winner; 2 or 430pm ET, CBS Sports Network

Wednesday, March 7 - At campus of higher seed

Championship: Game 5 Winner v. Game 6 Winner, 7pm ET, CBS Sports Network

Bucknell Bison (22-8, 12-2)

Ken Pom: 107

ESPN BPI: 105

RPI: 80

SOS: 181

Best wins: Princeton (98) 62-56

Best losses: Loyola Maryland (86) 67-72

Worst losses: @George Mason (83) 57-61; @La Salle (88) 52-78; @Syracuse (1) 61-80; @Holy Cross (164) 52-54; Lehigh (104) 53-56

Players to watch

Mike Muscala – 16.7 pts, 9.1 rebs, 1.7 assists, 1.6 blks

Cameron Ayers – 10.9 pts, 2.3 rebs, 1.8 assists, 46% 3pts

Joe Willman – 10.4 pts, 4.9 rebs, 1.6 assists

Bryson Johnson – 9.0 pts, 2.2 rebs, 1.2 assists, 40% 3pts

Bryan Cohen – 6.9 pts, 3.6 rebs, 2.4 assists

Who to foul: Who not to foul:

Joshea Singleton - 55% Muscala - 85%

Steven Kaspar – 26% Ayers - 81%

Willman - 81%

Johnson - 74%

Cohen – 75%

Fitzpatrick – 81%

Ryan Hill – 76%

Lehigh Mountain Hawks (23-7, 11-3)

Ken Pom: 85

ESPN BPI: 100

RPI: 104

SOS: 298

Best wins: @Bucknell (80) 56-53; @Wagner (87) 70-69

Best losses: @Iowa State (32) 77-86; Bucknell (80) 61-68; @Michigan St (4) 81-90

Worst losses: @Holy Cross (164) 78-84; @Cornell (173) 79-81 ot; @St. John’s (133) 73-78; @American (150) 62-71

Players to watch

C.J. McCollum – 21.7 pts, 6.6 rebs, 3.4 assists, 2.5 steals

Gabe Knutson – 12.1 pts, 5.5 rebs, 1.3 assists, 42% 3pts

Holden Greiner – 10.3 pts, 5.2 rebs, 1.0 assists

Mackey McKnight – 7.8 pts, 2.7 rebs, 3.6 assists, 1.0 steals

Jordan Hamilton – 6.5 pts, 1.8 rebs, 1.0 assists

Who to foul: Who not to foul:

Anthony D’Orazio - 47% McCollum - 83%

Knutson - 81%

Greiner - 73%

McKnight - 80%

Hamilton – 79%

John Adams – 76%

Corey Schaefer - 88%

American University Eagles (19-10, 10-4)

Ken Pom: 167

ESPN BPI: 181

RPI: 150

SOS: 303

Best wins: St. Joseph’s (47) 66-60

Best losses: Bucknell x2 (72) @61-67, 50-55

Worst losses: @St. Francis PA (311) 61-66; @UM Eastern Shore (317) 62-64 ot; @Mt. St Mary’s (290) 42-49; @Holy Cross (164) 52-59; @Richmond (125) 56-66; @Lehigh (117) 60-71; @Villanova (117) 52-73; @G’Town (10) 55-81

Players to watch

Charles Hinkle – 18.8 pts, 5.4 rebs, 1.7 assists, 44% 3pts

Troy Brewer – 12.0 pts, 3.3 rebs, 1.6 assists, 41% 3pts

Daniel Munoz – 7.9 pts, 2.7 rebs, 4.2 assists, 41% 3pts

Tony Wroblicky – 6.2 pts, 6.0 rebs, 1.6 blks

Who to foul: Who not to foul:

Wroblicky - 58% Hinkle - 83%

Simon McCormack - 29% Brewer - 78%

Munoz - 75%

Riley Grafft - 67%

Holy Cross Crusaders (15-13, 9-5)

Ken Pom: 215

ESPN BPI: 217

RPI: 164

SOS: 201

Best wins: Bucknell (80) 54-52

Best losses: Harvard (37) 64-73

Worst losses: @Army (302) 68-74; @Maine (284) 68-74; Lafayette (311) 43-54; @Columbia (184) 45-46; @Providence (158) 77-82; @American (150) 54-67; @Fairfield (125) 52-73; @Coll of Charleston (110) 69-78;

Players to watch

Devin Brown – 14.5 pts, 2.5 rebs, 1.3 assists

R.J. Evans – 11.2 pts, 4.7 rebs, 2.7 assists, 1.7 steals

Dave Dudzinski – 9.2 pts, 6.0 rebs, 1.1 blks

Justin Burrell – 7.4 pts, 2.1 rebs, 3.8 blks

Who to foul: Who not to foul:

Evans - 57% Brown - 75%

Phil Beans - 67% Dudzinski - 83%

Jordan Stevens- 62% Burrell - 78%

Mike Cavataio - 80%

Other players to watch

Ella Ellis, Army, Jr - 17.7 pts, 4.7 rebs, 2.1 assists

J.J. Avilla, Navy, So - 15.9 pts, 7.2 rebs, 2.9 assists, 1.8 stls

Ryan Willen, Lafayette, Sr - 14.6 pts, 5.3 rebs, 1.6 assists

Jim Mower, Lafayette, Sr - 12.9 pts, 2.8 rebs, 1.7 assists

Jordan Sugars, Navy, Sr - 11.7 pts, 4.8 rebs, 1.0 assists, 1.0 stl

Mitch Rolls, Colgate, Jr - 8.8 pts, 2.0 rebs, 2.4 assists, 44% 3pts

Patriot League Jack Leasure Award: Charles Hinkle, American. Very close race between Cameron Ayers (Bucknell), Mitch Rolls (Colgate), Josh Herbeck (Army) and Hinkle. But Hinkle is second in attempts and 5th in % - volume + accuracy was the Jack Leasure way.

Patriot League Player of the Year: CJ Mccollum, Junior, Lehigh

Patriot Leage Rookie of the Year: Justin Burrell, Holy Cross

Patriot League Coach of the Year: Dave Paulsen, Bucknell

First-Team All Patriot:

Elia Ellis, Jr, Army

Charles Hinkle, Sr, American

C.J. McCollum, Jr, Lehigh

Mike Muscala, Sr, Bucknell

Ryan Willen, Sr, Lafayette

Second-Team All Patriot:

Cameron Ayers, So, Bucknell

Devin Brown, Sr, Holy Cross

Bryan Cohen, Sr, Bucknell

Tony Johnson, Jr, Lafayette

Gabe Knutson, Jr, Lehigh

Joe Willman, Jr, Bucknell

Morels from the Patriot League

Leopards is a cool and unique nickname, way to go Lafayette.

Um...so this isn't new, but it is still bizarre. Navy coach Ed DeChellis coached Penn St last year, made the tournament, and then voluntarily left for Navy. This just in - Navy went winless in conference and 3-25 overall, and DeChellis chose to go coach there. Um. Yeah. And that wasn't even the most bizarre thing that happened with Penn State athletics this year, by far.

Naval Academy Sophomore Isiah Roberts is cousins with former Kent State great Al Fisher

Naval AcademyJunior Jordan Brinkman is the brother of LIU-Brooklyn standout soph Jason Brinkman.

Honestly Lehigh's roster page on its site are AWESOME - the candid poses in full suits, the video highlights...

Bucknell Sr Foward Probese Leo has a great name

Bucknell sophomore Cameron Ayers is the son of former Ohio st and Phi 76er head coach, Randy Ayers

American U Jr Guard, Warren Floyd, Jr. is the nephew of former NFL player, Fred Stokes.

Zappos.com 2012 West Coast Conference Tournament

Feb 29 - March 5, Orleans Arena, Las Vegas, NV, capacity: 7,471

11 years after they suffered an 0-14 conference season, the ascension of St. Mary's is complete, with their first outright conference title since Lynn Nance's Gaels accomplished the feat in 1989. Now, St. Mary's owes a large gracias to the fierce home court defending of San Francisco, but nonetheless, the 2012 WCC is theirs, which means, by virtue of the tournament's design, that they basically don't play against until the first round of the NCAA tournament. The big question, although, really doesn't seem like much of a question - I mean, you partially tear your MCL, basketball is not going to be an immediate activity, but anyway, the big question is the availability, and if he is, the effectiveness of Stephen Holt. The best perimeter defender (See: Murray State blowout) and energy catalyst for St. Mary's - he's the difference between this team being the perennial WCC contender/NCAA Waiting Line... team and being a single-digit seed whom everyone expects to do real damage. Speaking of St. Mary's, again they find themselves in the position of needing to prove their strength after a late season injury, now Holt is a strong player, but Patty Mills he is not, and I doubt St. Mary's still has Eastern Washington on speed dial anyway (plus they already played them, so if they win by loss, it'll be counterproductive). A regular season with a nice profile but semi devoid of big wins (especially non conference) - swept BYU, beat Gonzaga, beat Northern Iowa & Missouri St - now to protect the seed theyve earned to this point, they'll need to win their opening round game (which is the WCC's semi-finals) and then beat and/or play competitively Gonzaga (or BYU) to maintain the seed status they've built for themselves. Minus Holt, I think we're looking at a 7/8 seed, but if they can prove their still the 2012 Gaels, they could be a 6 - or if they get blown out and prove unable to Holt-recover, then a 10/11 seed may be in their future.

Let's not make the mistake that Gonzaga isn't still part of the WCC just because St. Mary's finally wrestled away the outright title and the Zags aren't at least sharing (if not in sole possession of) the regular season WCC championship for the first time in 11 years - this is still a strong Bulldog team - wins over Notre Dame, Summit champ Oral Roberts, Arizona, Butler, at Xavier, BYU, and St. Mary's make for a pretty deep profile, and they responded following the annual road loss to USF with a convincing win against BYU. Their end of season Longwood hammering was odd. But here's the thing, this team is sneaky loaded. Talented players at many positions, and depth not seen on this conference level. Actual size, backcourt skill (albeit with some serious defensive issues) and bench depth - if Few get their heads right, this a deep run could be on our hands. On the heels of the San Fran upset, Gonzaga was a 7 seed on the latest Buffetology, with a 6 being their most likely destination, and a 5 seed not out of the question.

Life without Jimmer wasn't all roses and puppies, but it wasn't disaster either. BYU lost only 4 times in their new conference confines, but twice they were blown out in the previously cozy confines of the Marriott Center. They are another curious case, where do you put BYU? They beat Gonzaga, Oregon & Nevada ... but outside of that? Weber St? Buffalo? Virginia Tech? Losses to Utah St to open to the season and a home blowout loss to LMU muddy things up (although, LMU is far better on court than as determined by computers), as do their top 50 losses, none of which were particular competitive. BYU may need to reach the final, to secure their place in the Buffet. A loss to the San Diego/Pepperdine winner would be a disaster and might leave them on the outside looking in.

Finally, the Buffet may have touted Loyola Marymount a little too loudly following their injured-stained victory over St. Mary's. Drew Viney can cloud one's judgment. But that win, coupled with the follow up handling of Valpo champ, really indicated big potential - then they dropped a home game to middle of the road San Diego to crush the Buffet's predictive hopes and dreams. But this is still the team who took out Saint Louis, mid-early season Billken surge, walked into Pauley to open the season and handled the Bruins, had various injuries to explain losses to North Texas and Morgan St, and went to both Moraga and Provo and came away with big road wins.

The Buffet picks: Stephen Holt just takes such a dimension away from St. Mary's, that the Buffet is going to make the very mistake that yesterday it admitted to making often, believing in Gonzaga. But, this is just a well-balanced Gonzaga team with depth. Now, we make no claim that it's the type of talent to ready a deep tourney run, but we believe it is one that can handle the WCC tournament to go nicely with the chip on their shoulder from being outside of the WCC regular season title picture for the first time in 11 years.

Upset special: The Drew Viney Buffet crush continues. Loyola Marymount is the call. BYU just doesn't have the horses, the rest of the WCC hasn't mounted much of a challenge - although Rex Walters' USF Dons have pulled some upsets and been ready to throw down - the SF Chronicle reported that after last Saturday's game, St. Mary's WCC title celebration in SF's building was a little too boisterous for San Francisco senior swingman Rashad Green - who let them know: by pounding on the locker room door, opening it and shouting at the Gaels to tone it down. He was restrained from the locker room by SF officials and WCC Commissioner Jamie Zaninovich, and threw a water bottle in disgust. FEISTY! But LMU has shown the moxie, and they've already exploited the absence of Stephen Holt once.

Buffet non-sequitur: Speaking of Buffet crushes - the Buffet does and always will believe that Sam Dower is a big a talent, and think of him higher than most, including (if playing time and short fuse of impatience is any indication) Coach Few.

Schedule

Unless noted, all games can be found on BYUtv

Wednesday February 29

Game 1: #8 Portland v. #9 Santa Clara, 9pm et, (http://www.wccsports.com/allaccess/?media=306184)

Thursday, March 1

Game 2: Winner Game 1 v. #5 San Francisco, 9pm ET

Game 3: #6 San Diego v. #7 Pepperdine, 10pm ET

Friday, March 2

Game 4: Winner Game 2 v. #4 Loyola Marymount, 9pm ET, ESPNU

Game 5: Winner Game 3 v. #3 Brigham Young, 10pm ET, ESPNU

Saturday, March 3

Game 6: Winner Game 4 v. #1 Saint Mary's, 9pm ET, ESPN2

Game 7: Winner Game 5 v. #2 Gonzaga, 11pm ET, ESPN2

Monday, March 5

Championship: Winner Game 6 v. Winner Game 7, 9:00pm ET, ESPN

St. Mary’s Gaels (25-5, 14-2)

Ken Pom: 41

ESPN BPI: 39

RPI: 31

SOS: 121

Best wins: Gonzaga (22) 83-62; @BYU x2 (48) @80-66; 98-82; Northern Iowa (64) 57-41;

Best losses:

Worst losses: @Denver (89) 58-70; @Gonzaga (22) 59-73; v.Baylor (8) 59-72; Loyola Marymount (112 - Holt injury) 60-75

Players to watch

Matthew Dellavedova – 15.4 pts, 3.3 rebs, 6.5 assists

Rob Jones – 14.8 pts, 10.7 rebs, 2.2 assists, 1.6 steals

Stephen Holt – 10.4 pts, 4.7 rebs, 3.3 assists, 1.8 steals *status uncertain*

Jorden Page – 7.7 pts, 1.1 rebs, 2.3 assists

Brad Waldow – 7.9 pts, 4.4 rebs, 1.6 blks

Clint Steindl – 7.7 pts, 2.7 rebs, 2.3 assists, 43% 3pts

Kenton Walker II – 4.1 pts, 3.3 rebs

Mitchell Young – 4.4 pts, 2.7 rebs

Who to foul: Who not to foul:

Jones - 64% Dellavedova - 84%

Waldow – 49% Holt - 77%

Walker - 62% Page - 86%

Steindl - 100% (28 FTs)

Gonzaga Bulldogs (24-5, 13-3)

Ken Pom: 33

ESPN BPI: 20

RPI: 22

SOS: 92

Best wins: St. Mary’s (31) 73-59; Notre Dame (42) 73-53; Oral Roberts (41) 67-61; @Xavier (54) 72-65; v.Arizona (70) 71-60

Best losses: Michigan St (4) 67-74; @Illinois (75) 75-82

Worst losses: @BYU (48) 73-83; @St. Mary’s (31) 62-83; @San Francisco (149) 65-66

Players to watch

Kevin Pangos – 13.4 pts, 2.8 rebs, 3.4 assists, 1.1 steals, 42% 3pts

Elias Harris – 12.9 pts, 8.4 rebs, 1.2 assists

Robert Sacre – 11.7 pts, 6.4 rebs, 1.4 blocks

Gary Bell – 10.2 pts, 2.2 rebs, 1.9 assists, 48% 3pts

Sam Dower – 8.5 pts, 3.9 rebs

Guy Landry Edi – 5.4 pts, 2.5 rebs

David Stockton – 4.0 pts, 1.1 rebs, 2.3 assists, 40% 3pts

Who to foul: Who not to foul:

Harris - 68% Pangos - 85%

Landry Edi - 47% Sacre - 77%

Stockton - 61% Bell - 74%

Dower - 78%

Brigham Young University Cougars (24-7, 12-4)

Ken Pom: 38

ESPN BPI: 38

RPI: 48

Best wins: Gonzaga (22) 83-73; v.Nevada (55) 76-55; vs. Oregon (52) 79-65

Best losses: Baylor (8) 83-86;

Worst losses: @Utah St (154) 62-69; Loyola Marymount (112) 68-82; St. Mary’s (31) 66-80; v.Wisconsin (19) 56-73

Players to watch

Noah Hartsock – 16.8 pts, 5.3 rebs, 1.6 assists, 1.6 blocks

Brandon Davies – 14.9 pts, 7.6 rebs, 2.1 assists, 1.5 steals, 1.3 blks

Matt Carlino – 13.0 pts, 3.2 rebs, 4.7 assists, 1.5 steals

Charles Abouo – 11.5 pts, 6.3 rebs, 2.7 assists, 1.2 steals

Brocky Zylstra – 8.4 pts, 4.2 rebs, 1.9 assists

Stephen Rogers – 6.8 pts, 1.8 rebs, 1.4 assists

Who to foul: Who not to foul:

Zylstra - 64% Hartsock - 84%

Rogers - 67% Davies - 71%

Anson Winder - 65% Carlino - 73%

Nate Austin - 51% Abouo - 74%

Loyola Marymount Lions (19-11, 11-5)

Ken Pom: 142

ESPN BPI: 129

RPI: 112

SOS: 118

Best wins: @Saint Mary's (31) 75-60, Saint Louis (35) 75-68; @BYU (48) 82-68

Best losses: Gonzaga (22) 58-62; St. Mary’s (31) 64-71; Middle Tenn St (47) 51-58; BYU (48) 65-73

Worst losses: @Morgan St. (285) 45-69; North Texas (203) 63-76; Columbia (184) 61-69; @Gonzaga (22) 59-78

Players to watch

Anthony Ireland – 15.5 pts, 3.7 rebs, 4.8 assists

Drew Viney – 15.3 pts, 5.4 rebs, 1.5 assists, 1.2 steals, 45%

Jarred DuBois – 10.4 pts, 2.5 rebs

Ashley Hamilton – 10.6 pts, 5.2 rebs, 47% 3pts

LaRon Armstead – 8.0 pts, 2.6 rebs

C.J. Blackwell – 6.2 pts, 3.1 rebs

Ayodeji Egbeyemi – 4.0 pts, 3.0 reb

Who to foul: Who not to foul:

Egbeyemi - 48% Viney - 80%

Godwin Okonji - 60% Ireland - 76%

Quincy Lawson - 54% DuBois - 87%

Alex Osborne - 51% Hamilton - 75%

Edgard Garibay – 67% Armstead – 86%

Blackwell – 74%

Other players to watch

Angelo Caloiaro, San Francisco, Sr, 14.7 pts, 6.1 rebs, 2.1 assists, 1.7 steals, 40% 3pts

Evan Roquemore, Santa Clara, So, 13.6 pts, 3.1 rebs, 5.3 assists

Johnny Dee, San Diego, Fr, 13.3 pts, 1.7 rebs, 1.2 assists, 41% 3pts

Taylor Darby, Pepperdine, Sr, 12.2 pts, 6.0 rebs

Perris Blackwell, San Francisco, Jr, 12.7 pts, 6.1 rebs

Rashad Green, San Francisco, Sr, 11.7 pts, 5.2 rebs, 2.2 assists, 1.7 steals

Ryan Nichols, Portland, So, 11.2 pts, 7.5 rebs, 1.0 assists

Michael Williams, San Francisco, Jr, 10.8 pts, 2.2 rebs, 1.4 assists

Corbin Moore, Pepperdine, Sr, 10.2 pts, 8.5 rebs, 1.0 assists, 1.0 blks, 44% 3pts

Raymond Cowells III, Santa Clara, Jr, 10.0 pts, 3.5 rebs, 1.0 assists, 42% 3pts

West Coast Conference Jack Leasure Award: Johnny Dee, San Diego. 71/171 - 41%. Toughest Jack Leasure race to date. Kevin Pangos, Gonzaga, 69/166 gave him a run, as did Clint Steidl, Saint Mary's, 53/122, and Raymond Cowels III of Santa Clara was the runner 55/139, 42% - but ultimately, with a .09% difference, we went with total number of launches as the deciding factor.

West Coast Conference Player of the Year: Matthew Dellavedova, Jr, St Mary's

West Coast Conference Newcomer of the Year: Kevin Pangos, Fr, Gonzaga

West Coast Conference Coach of the Year: Max Good, Loyola Marymount

All West Coast Conference Team:

Angelo Caloiaro, Sr, Fwd, San Francisco

Brandon Davies, Jr, Fwd, Brigham Young

Elias Harris, Jr, F, Gonzaga

Matthew Dellavedova, Jr, G, Saint Mary's

Noah Hartsock, Sr, F, Brigham Young

Anthony Ireland, So, G, Loyola Marymount

Rob Jones, Sr, Fwd, Saint Mary's

Robert Sacre, Sr, C, Gonzaga

Kevin Pangos, Fr, G, Gonzaga

Drew Viney, Sr, Fwd, Loyola Marymount

Morels from the West Coast

BYU Sr Guard/Forward Charles Abouo plays for the Ivory Coast national team

One of BYU assistants coaches is former Kentucky great, Mark Pope

Pepperdine freshman frwd Ramon Eaton is the cousin of UTEP Miner Darius Nelson & former Duke player DeMarcus Nelson

Pepperdine Senior Lorne Jackson's personal trainer is former NBA player Poor Richardson

St. Mary's assistant coach, Adam Caporn, was Randy Bennett's first recruit at SMC.

Rob Jones was a key contributor of the 2008 U. San Diego team that upset UConn in the first round of the NCAA tournament (Jones had 14 & 6 in that game).

This one never gets old - USF is coached by former Kansas sharpshooter (and, little known fact, Northwestern transfer) Rex Walters. In fact, USF's bench is a KU reunion, featuring former team manager Justin Bauman & the man best known for getting his 3pt shot blocked by Hakim Warrick in the 2003 championship game, Michael Lee.

San Francisco soph forward Cole Dickerson is the half-brother of former University of Arizona superstar, Michael Dickerson

Perris Blackwell, junior forward for the Dons, has just a really cool name

Rashad Green, senior swingman at San Fran and he of the postgame temper tantrum, is the younger brother of former UNC standout & current San Antonio Spur, Danny Green, as well as the cousin of NBAer Gerald Green.

Santa Clara RS freshman, Yannick Atanga, helped restore, renovate and save an orphanage near his birthplace in Cameroon

Broncos freshman guard Denzel Johnson is the nephew of NBA great Gary Payton, and his cousin, Travis Davis played at Notre Dame before graduating to the NFL (Jacksonville & the Steelers)
LMU junior Daniel Latiner's brother, Cedric, plays hoops at St. Francis (PA).

Jarred DuBois is NOT related to Benson DuBois. But Benson did keep that governor's mansion in order

Lions' sophomore forward Quincy Lawson is the brother of Creighton baller Ken Lawson, Jr.

Gonzaga sophomore disappointment, David Stockton, is the son of ... well, you know.

In the Waiting Line...

Maryland (102) @ North Carolina (5): Maryland's bubble, as small as it was, has burst. The door has been open wide for the ACC AND Big 12 to get the last 2 No. 1s, thanks to some slight slippage at the top of the Big 10 this week. Pretty much, it'll come down to UNC winning Saturday and taking the ACC tourney title. But, you can't lose top 100+ RPI teams along the way.

Marquette (7) @ Cincinnati (78): Marquette is rolling, this is a good, deep team - who just keeps winning (5 straight, 12 of 13) and is careening towards a 2 seed. The issue with seeding is that the tournament is loaded at the top with teams with strong resumes, the 1 and 2 seeds are fluid, but not immediately in danger of dropping to the 3 line, where all four teams boast strong resumes (Michigan's first home loss to Purdue was close as it comes to seed bursting losses), and below it, begins the mess that will be seeding in 2012. Marquette keeps this up and wins the conference tournament - hello 2 seed. For now, they are as cemented as a 3 as it gets in February.

Cincinnati meanwhile had their star on the rise, but blew a real strong chance to fortify their resume with a nice road win, by getting out-maneuvered by Stan Heath's best coaching since 2002, and losing 46-45. Cincy is hovering around the 11/12 line, just above the play-in range and just ahead of the Waiting Line... This Marquette game could be a virtual deal sealer, but should they fail, then winning in Philly on the 3rd is a must, and then some work will have to be done in the BET against lesser/similar foes if they want to stay in.

Ohio State (11) @ Northwestern (44): Ohio State needs to right the ship a little. They've not necessarily been bad, or even average - but they've just not been the dominant team, of late, that they appeared they would develop into. Offensive woes, and losers of 3 of 5, a pair of road games to close the season can not only get them back on their national title contendership track, but also get them back on the road towards a #1. A share of the Big 10 regular season title is back up for grabs thanks to a slew of recent losses. Both Ohio State and Michigan are one game out in the loss column with two games left for those teams, while Michigan State awaits OSU's trip to East Lansing. However, by virtue of tie-breakers, which came down to regular season performance against Wisconsin, Michigan State has already locked up the top seed in the B10 tourney. Nonetheless, a #1 resume can be built with road wins @Northwestern, @Michigan St and then a run through the nation's top rated conference.

Northwestern has the opportunity Waiting Line... dreams are made of, a #2 seed coming to your home court in late Feb with an at-large bid just hanging out there. Northwestern typically loses these types of games by 1-2 points, despite leading for most of the game. NW barely did what they needed to do against Penn State after the heartbreaker to Michigan - now it's time to add a win of resume significance. A victory over Ohio St will all but assure them of their first ever tournament bid. If not, it's a must-win at spry Iowa, and then 2-3 victories, minimum in the B10 tournament (of course, that is all subject to opponent). Northwestern was on the wrong side of the latest Buffetology, but losses and rough performances can change things ... they're right on the cusp, and winning pushes teams over cusps.

UNLV (11) @ Colorado State (26): UNLC who was a 6 seed in the last Buffetology, and then added a pair of wins over teams they are much better than, now goes to Colorado St in search of fortifying their position and maybe snagging a 5-seed from one of those faltering teams (Florida St & Notre Dame, that means you). This is probably a 6 seed when things are done, but that North Carolina win shines like the Bat signal, so if they can finish the Mountain West season with at least a share, and then take the tournament - things could end up with a 4 next to their name on March 11.

Colorado State is the quintessential home court hero we hear about every year - they are 2-9 on the road, and that's just the wrong kind of record that sends the wrong message to the committee - however, you pile up enough good wins, and suddenly that can be overlooked to an extent. Tonight's game is essential. So is not losing at Air Force on Saturday - but first things first. Buffet is in the opinion that the road losses surrounding the big UNM win has pretty much canceled that out, and looking at the overall resume big wins over MWC teams + Colorado and Wyoming, but ZERO on the road means Colorado St is on the outside looking in (last Buffetology notwithstanding) with a long shot chance at playing their way in.

SMU (220) @ Southern Miss (13): Southern Miss is going to be in the tournament, although recent losses have really sunk their stock. They are likely going to top out in the 9/10 range, with an outside shot at a 7/8 if they can go undefeated until March 11 (including a win over Memphis at some point, to win the C-USA tournament). Otherwise an 11 seed could be their fate.

Massachusetts (81) @ Temple (14): When you are the team in conference everyone guns for, a singular loss isn't troubling. How you bounce back from it, however, is key, especially at home, especially at a RPI-building, but otherwise largely irrelevant team. Temple had the fortune of losing right when 4-seed contenders Notre Dame & Florida State fell on their faces, so they're probably safe their for now. That win over Duke is playing the same way UNLV's UNC win is playing, and if they can streak to the A10 title, and garners wins over 2 of Xavier, St. Joe's & St. Louis along the way, this could be a tournament 3 seed - although given the strength of the 1s, 2s and 3s, a 4 seed is most likely.

Iowa State (32) @ Missouri (29): Iowa State has probably done enough - wins over Kansas and a sweep of Kansas St, to go with a win over Texas - although the dearth of any non-conference resume win is troubling. Given their schedule, Cyclones could lose out - but that won't necessarily put them on the brink of anything a 9/10/11 seed losing to Missouri and Baylor is nothing that bursts a tournament bubble. In fact, the way things are playing they would finish with Kansas St, which again, would not be a loss that should kill a resume - but then, is Iowa State a lock (assuming of course, the Murray State, Long Beach, Gonzaga/St Mary's of the world win their tournaments and protect their bids)? Can you be a lock when you just recently went from an 11 seed only to a 9 seed? It's an interesting case - the Buffet says yes, they can lose (as long as they're competitive) those three games and still expect to be at least in the play-in game.

Missouri will finish no higher than #2 in conference, and really with Texax Tech to go, they will top out at 5 losses (likely 4, Iowa St could see a buzzsaw tonight). In this scenario, with the B10 being a strong as it is and 2 #1 seeds pretty much signed, sealed and delivered, Missouri is peaking at a #2 - without an outside chance of a #3, but only if they either hit a losing streak that reaches four by the tournament (it would include a loss to Texas Tech, and that would guarantee a seed drop), or if the strength of that current 3 line catches up with a Missouri team that falls to Iowa St and then loses to the Baylor/Texas (hypothetically) winner in the semis.

South Florida (45) @ Louisville (22):: After blowing a prime chance at Syracuse, South Florida did what they had to do, you know, winning a game against a Big East team with a winning record - narrowly beating Cincy at home. That alone does not a tournament bid make. Tonight's game would be HUGE, with So Fla on the cusp of a bid themselves (although those three 100+ losses are sticking out, when compared to a single top 50 win, and 46 at that - over a wrong side of the Waiting Liner... themselves (Seton Hall)). But a road game at Louisville would undoubtedly put them on the right side for now, and WV would cement, or if they lose to UL, but beat WVU, suddenly they've won 2 of 3 from the top of the conference (talent-wise, we're aware WVU is sub-.500 themselves), and they head into the BET in the right way.

Louisville bounced back from the road loss at Cincy with a narrow win over Pitt, it seems this team is in need of a statement - their seed isn't in peril, and they are certainly a lock, but just something to remind everyone just how tough they are (even if they have randomly become offensively challenged in games - although the apparent return of Kyle Kuric's shot may spell relief there). Louisville sat at a 4 before they Cincy loss, and likely that didn't really move them too far (the 5 seeds suffered a back weekend, and with Temple losing to a lower seeded team + having a lesser profile, UL is ahead of them in line anyway), but again, this is a game where Louisville can re-establish who they are, even if from a tournament perspective, they don't really NEED it.

Auburn (144) at Alabama (25): Anthony Grant, who has long been one of the Buffet's favorite coaches, both for his style and message and because the Buffet thinks he got punked by Billy Prima-Donovan (Chris Berman, watch out!), sent a message and Alabama weathered the storm. After a pair of losses left outsiders wondering if Alabama could still be a tournament team as player misconduct befell them, they turned around with 3 dominating performances, and now with 3 of the 4 players back (Steele, Releford and Green are all back, Tony Mitchell is gone (addition by subtraction despite being the 2nd leading scorer?)) - they seemed to be in great position to further bolster their tourney position, especially with Auburn and an average Ole Miss squad left on the docket. We last saw Alabama as a 10 seed, but recent results and a return to basic full-strength probably sends them up to the 8 line. This is a chance to solid set their feet down in a favored seed position, with some noise to be made in the SEC tournament. Alabama is pretty much a lock at this point, unless they somehow lose 3 straight to finish out (not quite the caliber of opponent Iowa State faces, for instance)

San Diego St (27) @ Boise State (166): Despite a recent spate of losses right as the Buffet was trying to do the unthinkable and praise Steve Fisher (3 games streak to UNLV, New Mexico and then Air Force when the momentum of badness seemed to catch up with them) - San Diego St bounced back with a pair of home wins that likely sealed up their at-large bid. An 8 seed when we last saw them, SD St probably is still their, at the top of the 8s, or maybe even on the 7. But Boise St & TCU are anchors that will sink a resume, and despite being road games, where SD St is 5-4, SD St would still be wise to avoid losing them, because it could get ugly in a hurry. In their favor are wins over California, Arizona & Long Beach - 3 teams in the Waiting Line... And although 2 of those 3 will likely get an auto, when you are comparing teams in the same seeding region, that helps SD State get a bump above them, and then, by proxy, above the teams those 3 are above.

UC Irvine (271) @ Long Beach St (33): Long Beach just can't lose games. Especially reg season - even a tourney loss will play better in front of the committee. If they want an at large, and many people feel they are definitely one of the best 68, they need to beat these lower rung teams and give people nothing extra to think about. We will re-examine things if they do lose one of these games and/or fail to win the Big West tournament.

Air Force (163) @ New Mexico (34): New Mexico was such a mid-February darling, making people sit-up and take notice when they ran through Colorado St, @San Diego St and UNLV in the midst of a 6 game win streak, that shot them up to a 6 seed out of nowhere on Buffetology. But now, 2 road losses later, the questions are back, they've ceded back the MWC reg season title they were in the driver's seat on, and now are simply co-passengers in, and have very little resume build left in the reg season (Air Force and Boise, just aren't). Still likely in the 6/7 range, they are tournament locks ... but losses like these send you down the bracket and really put them at a MWC disadvantage. Lose and suddenly UNM is back in the 8/9 game, trending the absolute wrong way.

Penn State (152) @ Purdue (41): An up and down season got some validation last Saturday when Purdue put the only home L of the season on Michigan, to give them the exclamation point their resume hadn't had since beating Temple in early November. This isn't to suggest their resume is ugly (losses to Butler, yes Butler is a bad loss this year and Penn St, notwithstanding). But Purdue was playing in the double-digit seed space and this win pulled them up from that, and pretty much locked in their bid as well, they'd do well to avoid a home loss and quality-questioning loss to Penn State, but outside of that, there's not a lot of killer losses in the B10 this year (Red Alert!) that await them in the tournament, so they get this win, and they bid the Buffet sees as sealed, gets stamped too? Whatever, just beat bad teams.

Miami (FL) @ NC State: It seemed like this would be the classic Bubble Elimination game, and it still sort of is, but Miami overcame a last minute suspension of center Reggie Johnson and beat a top 25 RPI team in the process (FSU has slipped to 26 since). But with only Duke serving as a win of note on their resume (a great win, especially on the road, no doubt), it is imperative that Miami keeps winning.

Arguably, they need this more than NC State, simply because NC State is pretty much out of the at-large bid running thanks to a 4 game losing streak, at just the wrong time.

Saint Joseph's (51) @ St. Bonaventure (101): Wiser people than the Buffet understand that games that look like resume albatrosses may not be. St Bonaventure has a so-so record (16-10) and ugly RPI (101) and appears to be a gimme (they lost to Arkansas State) ... but then you see they are currently third in the nation's 7th ranked conference and are 10-3 at home this season, and suddenly, even though St. Joe's can't afford losses, period, tonight's wouldn't be nearly the "bad" loss it seems it would be. That said, Saint Joe's has two top 25 wins, but they are the top 25 wins that look good in the Record v. 25, but lose some luster when you see that they are Temple and Creighton, especially the Blue Jays - our apologies to the McDermott family. Other wise, they have 3 bad losses, an 0k road record that has no wins against quality opponents on it, and losses to many of the teams standing in about the same Waiting Line... spot (Xavier, Seton Hall, Harvard etc). There is no room for error, losing to St Bonnie even despite all the strengths cited above would be such an error.

Oklahoma (121) @ Texas (56): No matter the sport, UT shouldn't need motivation to want to pummel OU - but here's more ammo. Speaking of no room for error, Texas has been sitting on the first 4 out, play-in game, "will they snap their 13 year consecutive tournament streak (impressive, for a football school, btw)" lines for pretty much 2012 - and, well, their play has dictated that. Their play was so-so, then it was strong, but they still lost (4 @ Kansas St, 3 v Kansas, 4 @Baylor, 1 v. Missouri during a 5 game stretch, with a win over tournament bound Iowa St mixed in). But where most teams would be fueled by this good play (they were briefly, winning 4 straight, including a rousing home comeback over KState), they then went to struggle mode, letting Keiton Page get wild in Stillwater and failing, AGAIN, to put away a top team, losing by 5 to Baylor. Near disaster struck last Saturday in Lubbock - so now Texas stands needing statements, a win tonight isn't a STATEMENT per se, but much like the Louisville statement, Texas needs to punish OU, show the committee the clear line between them and those below them - before continuing on to either Lawrence or the BXII tournament, and getting 1-2 resume building wins they need - although, they win in Lawrence, sign, seal and deliver it, Texas is yours. But, let's be honest, that isn't likely. So, win today, then beat Baylor/Iowa St in the first round (Baylor would seal it, Iowa State would strengthen it) and Texas can turn the dial one notch to 14.

Buffalo (92) @ Akron (59): The Buffet has seen people tout Akron, as a would-be conference champion (the argument is always if they win out), but that conference is #17, Akron's best wins are on the road yes, but at a non-tournament team and a holding on for dear life for a potential bid team. They've lost to fellow Waiting Line.. teams VCU, Middle Tenn St, Oral Roberts, West Virginia, and just about everyone near the top of the Horizon standings. Akron isn't getting an at large bid.

Mississippi St (66) @ South Carolina (186): Despite a 5 game losing streak, there are still places where the Bulldogs are ticketed with an at-large. The Buffet is one of those places, but mostly because we like to update Bracketology once a week until Selection Sunday is one week away. The resume popping wins are there: @Vandy (road wins are huge) and over rejuvenated Alabama (pre-suspension). And the Waiting Line... wins are there: West Virginia, Ole Miss, Arizona - LSU & Tennessee do not count. But bad losses are there too - home to Georgia, @Auburn, home to Akron - who we just finished saying is on the wrong side of things, and the 5 game losing streak including two of these. Miss State is not in right now, and neither South Carolina or Arkansas victories can change that -- although, they can reinforce it, in a bad way.