Syracuse. VCU. Arizona. South Alabama (definitely). Mississippi. New Mexico. Illinois State. Ohio State. Florida. Arizona State. Oregon. Colleges & Universities who will forever be disgusted by March 10, 2008.
San Diego Torreros.
Middle Tennessee State Blue Raiders.
Two schools who won't be getting a holiday card from Jim Boeheim or Lisa Love.
But, what does it all mean? It means in two nights, the Bubble has shrunk by two teams. It means Eric Maynor is not likely to get to dazzle fans, gamblers and Duke-haters everywhere by pulling off another forgone-conclusion first round upset.
It means that suddenly major conference tournaments, which used to be the home of Mike Montgomery and Lute Olson phone-in jobs; Randolph Childress miracle runs, and 100 total points by the entire Big Ten over the course of a weekend-long tournament, suddenly move from a basketball court to here:
In approximately 15 minutes, the first true elimination game of the 2007-8 NCAA Division 1 College Basketball Season kicks off, in Madison Square Garden, where the Big East Tournament gets underway, where human eyes haven't seen men in white jerseys play good basketball since Mouse Van Gundy held on to Alonzo Mourning's leg for dear life with Syracuse & Villanova.
The 2008 Syracuse squad did the one thing that Syracuse isn't apt to do -- play a tough non-conference schedule. They didn't leave the confines of home very often (one NC road game -- Virginia (which they won, and back on December 5th, it looked like a huge win) and 2 NC neutral site games -- which took place, surprise surprise, Madison Square Garden, which was a lot more of a road game for victim (Washington) and victor (Ohio State, who beat SU 79-65). The Orange's resume is spotty, a nice SOS (#7) is hurt by a sub-.500 road record(4-6), a couple of 101-200 losses, and 2-8 record against the RPI Top 50 -- but those two wins are versus the top 25 (#7 GTown and #23 Marquette). Problem is, they are both at home -- Syracuse has done little to look formidable on the road -- except for beating the Sean Singletary Experience and a blowout win over today's opponent, Villanova, which they were returning the favor of (losing 2 weeks earlier by 10 at home to the Wildcats). Syracuse quickly turned around a late cold spell where they lost 5 of 6 by getting Seton Hall in Jersey and the big 15-point pasting of Marquette. But is it enough? With space being made for all three West Coast Conferencers, and likely for South Alabama ... Syacuse cannot rest on its season -- especially with the 11 points/3 1/2 minute Pitt Panther debacle fresh in the minds of the Selection Committee -- or else it'll be cue up the violins and kleenex, because JB is going to do him some whining and crying,
"Without Gerry McNamara we wouldn't have won 10 [explitive] games. We wouldn't even be here to even have a chance to win this game. It's the most [explitive] I've seen in 30 years, especially in our own paper. Anonymous assistant coaches. Let that assistant coach come up to me and say that. The coaches voted him first team all-conference, but head coaches don't know [explitive] I guess." -- oops, wrong JB rant.
Johnny Flynn & Donte Green have been gone from inconsistent freshman to consistent threats, but the lights of the BET play funny tricks on cocky freshman, Syracuse will need major performances from them, as well as Arinza Onuaku, their only low post threat, will HAVE to avoid foul trouble, and Div 1 Basketball's version of Shawn Marion (minus the needless chip on the shoulder) Paul Harris will have to keep pouring it into the stat sheet. But the X factor here is Kristof Onegenaet, the big Belgian has come on of late, (if you throw out the Pittsburgh game, which all Syracuse fans, officials, and players would like you to do), he averaged 10 points per game down the stretch, and really was a factor in the win over Marquette...
Villanova's situation is similarly dicey. A worse RPI (57-46), a worse SOS (56 to 7), a much much worse non-conference SOS (164 vs 15), but a better record versus the Top 50 (7-8), a better run down the stretch (winning 5 of 7), and many people consider the Georgetown Jobbing to be a victory. While their profile is a tad weaker than Syracuse's the extra wins against the top, the hotter stretch to close the season, and the fact that they will have taken 2 of 3 from Syracuse, means that a win this morning (High Noon on the East Coast) knocks Syracuse out, and should put Villanova in, but may not.
Look for Scottie Reynolds to do his damnedest to take over this game, he knows what's at stake, and he also fell for Telephone Sampson's cell phone madness, so he already should be angry. Dante Cunningham has developed into a decent #2 option, and could give that 2-3 Zone (which has really started to come on after allowing 100 points to Atlantic 10 teams not named Xaiver, ugh) some fits.
The other early eliminator is in the Atlantic 10 -- where Dayton takes on Saint Louis. Saint Louis, at 15-14, and having scored 20 points, yes, 20 total in a game this year, is already eliminated. But Dayton, after such a promising start where they won 13 of their first 14, including huge wins at Louisville and over Pitt, lost Chris Wright and then stopped winning, dropping games to Richmond (#115), Geo Washington (#186), Duquesne (#186), @La Salle, yes @ La Salle (163) ... they went 3-8 in that stretch overall, and two of those games (road games versus Xavier and Richmond, were without 4th leading scorer Chris Little as well. Dayton has ZERO room for error, so not only is this an elimination game, but likely anything less than a run to the tournament final would eliminate the Flyers. However, that would include a quarterfinal win over Xavier, so this is no small task ahead of DU. They got hot to finish the season -- 3 straight wins including a 13-point season closer versus Saint Joseph's (which probably doomed the Hawks), but they'll still be without Chris Wright today, and if season history is any indication, that does not bode well...
More Waiting Line fun to come.. enjoy the busiest day of the 12 Days of Conference Tourneys. Fill up your plates, and come corrected...
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