Elimination Thursday Part Deux...

Who will be the next to hear...


GOOD - BYE

Hearing it first was Syracuse.
Then Dayton got the bad news -- they just aren't very good.
Next was Texas Tech. I've met Robert Knight, and Pat, you are no Robert Knight. (which is even worse when you realize the Robert Knight isn't even Robert Knight anymore)
Finally, UAB, far less cool with Mike Davis than Mike Anderson, looked about as limp as you can when you are fighting for tourney berth (should we be surprised), losing in OT to Shea Seals & Tulsa.

Villanova? Not necessarily. But, the decisive loss, after they fought back from the 11 point halftime deficit to 51-50, was disappointing.

What's next?

Arizona St. vs. Southern California - Pac-10 quarters, currently airing - The Buffet calls this Play-In more so than Elimination, not that Ariz St is necessarily in win or lose, but that a loss here doesn't necessarily send them to the NIT showers. Arizona St is a supremely interesting Waiting Line case. 19-11 with an RPI of 73 (largely due to their 306th ranked non-conference schedule). They are 4-6 on the road, but no truly gawd-awful losses (We realize Illinois wasn't very good (135), but that's no like losing to So Dakota St or something) ... on the bright side? A 22-point thrashing of A10 champ and likely tourney #2 seed Xavier, an OT win over Stanford that capped a phenomenal comeback, a sweep over fellow Waiting Line contender Arizona, a 14 point win over this same Southern California team in early March when they needed a nice win .. but here's the catch, no team has ever received an at-large bid after a season in which they went under .500 against the RPI Top 200, and Ariz. St is 9-11, which means they cannot possibly get back to .500 in the Pac-10 tournament. But, the Buffet sees this, if they can take out So.California and give a non-roll over performance versus UCLA (at the least) in the semis, Arizona State is eating at the Buffet. *Note, coming into this game, James Harden is 15-17 in 2 games against Southern Cal this season*

Baylor v. Colorado - Big 12 opening round, currently airing - After a 16-2 start, which included wins over Notre Dame, tourney-bound Winthrop, and an epic 5-OT win at College Station, it seems that Baylor never fully recovered from playing the 25 extra minutes ... they spiraled a bit, dropping 6 of 7, but, it seems that the sixth, an OT loss at Oklahoma snapped Baylor back to attention, they finished the regular season winning 4 of 5 (including a nice win over Kansas St) and they take that into the tourney. At 20-9, with an RPI of 33 and SOS of 30 (helped BIG TIME by the Big 12, as their non-conference SOS was just 140, but that Notre Dame win carries nicely) ... they have not been great against the top 50 (3-8), but they've avoided the bad loss, their worst being @Oklahoma St 83-93. Baylor should be safe, provided they take out Colorado, that wouldn't necessarily drop them out, but it would take the plate out of their hands, and move them back a bit in the Waiting Line.

Houston v. UTEP - Conference USA semis - 12:30 pm - UAB's loss also impacts Houston, who had little chance of getting an at-large bid without beating Memphis anyway (which they couldn't do without garnering the C-USA autobid), but now, zero teams of tourney quality are in Houston's way pre-championship game. Just don't lose Houston, and, if you feel like getting invited rather than qualifying, find a way to lose to Memphis on a less-second miracle shot or something. A home win over Kentucky was nice ... but there's just not a lot to love about this team.

LaSalle v. Temple - A10 Quarterfinals - 3:30 PM - The Owls are a borderline case at best, but they've got the fortune of being hot at the right time. There's no room for a loss to LaSalle, and then they'd like need a win over UMass to still stay in the discussion. Consider this a Play-Out, not a Play-In. At 18-12, with an RPI of 62 and SOS 46 (a very very nice non-conference SOS of 28, but that didn't end in too many non-conference victories (Ohio is the decidedly uncream of that crop) ... but they have 6 top 100 wins, a 7-5 road record, and have won 4 straight and 5 of 6 (including a nice win at fellow Waiting Liner, St. Joe's). They also beat #8 Xavier... Keep winning Owls.

Kent St. vs. Toledo - MAC Quarterfinals, 4:00 PM - Flash, that win at St. Mary's was nice. But your resume really isn't. Not losing at home is the real story behind the 26 RPI. Avenge the loss to Toledo, and get to the MAC final, do yourselves that favor. In fact, win the MAC tourney and don't make the Buffet's head hurt thinking whether you belong in ...

Alabama v. Florida - SEC Opening Round, 4:30 PM - Florida doesn't have much of tourney worthy resume, if you don't think Ariz St's non-conference schedule was the worst in the nation, then you must believe Florida did. #273 in the country, to be exact. Unlike Ariz St, their best non-conf. win was vs. Temple, not a top 10 team, they also have lost 3 straight heading into the SEC tourney, are under .500 on the road (3-6), 2-8 versus the RPI top 40 (wins over #10 Vandy and #48 Kentucky) ... they've avoided multiple horrid losses (only the home loss to SEC bottom-feeder LSU is killer), otherwise they did the one thing you HAVE to do against a schedule ranked 273 (87 once you factor in SEC) -- they won. The thinking here is that Florida MUST get to the SEC final to get themselves an invitation.

Charlotte vs. Massachusetts, A-10 Quarterfinals, 6:00 pm. The Minutemen are a breath of fresh air, a team actually working to play its way in ... 6 straight wins (albeit against the bottom tier of the A10) are still 6 straight wins. At 21-9, with an RPI of 43, SOS of 69, a 7-6 road record, and 1 loss to a team rated 150 or below, there is a bit to like about the UMass resume. Dayton, Houston, Syracuse and Rhode Island's collapses are really hurtful right about now, as a win at Dayton is the best UMass has to offer. UMass needs a deep A-10 run, so a loss to Charlotte would be eliminatory.

TCU v. UNLV, Mountain West Quarterfinal, 8:00 pm - That second round UNLV/New Mexico looms large, as a potential eliminator, first things first, UNLV must beat TCU, and likely needs the championship game to get to the tournament (hence the large looming UNLV/New Mexico match-up). At 22-7, with an RPI of 27, and an SOS of 68 (52 in non-conference) UNLV just doesn't have an abundance of good wins (only top 50 work was their Jan 15 decimation of BYU), but they were 6-2 against thos rated 51-100 (making then 7-5 against the top 110) as well as 6-5 on the road. They've won 4 of 5 (the 1 loss was a damaging loss by 14 at fellow Waiting Liner, New Mexico). Not sure if the Buffet has mentioned this, but that UNLV/New Mexico game looms large.

*Line by ASU commentator Tim Healy, "Pendergraph swishes the jumper, then runs back on defense yelling "come on" to his teammates. He has "the look." -- and imagine all this is being said in a monotone, worst play-by-play guy in the business.

2nd of the Pac-10 Trio: Oregon v. Washington State, Pac-10 Quarterfinals, 6:00 pm - Once again, this is not likely an eliminator, but rather a play-in game, as a win by Oregon would cement a bid, a loss might doom them, but doesn't eliminate them.

Boston College v. Maryland - Opening Round, ACC tournament, 6:30 pm -- ugh. collapse city here. 18-13 with an RPI dropping down to 70 (with a nice 16 SOS, bouyed by the ACC season). The Terps are 5-4 on the road, they hold a very nice chip, a road win at Chapel Hill. But from there it gets ugly -- 1-5 vs. top 50, 7-11 vs. top 100, a loss to today's opponent, ranked 138 (at home), the 20-point Clemson collapse, and losing 4 of 5 and 5 of 7 to finish the season (including losses at Wake and at the Sean Singletary Experience) ... Maryland needs the final to get back on the good side of the Waiting Line (meaning they beat Clemson -- revenge factor, high! -- and they beat Duke)

Iowa State v. Texas A&M - Big XII opening round, 6:30 pm - A&M is likely ok, but the way they finished the season, and the lifeless loss to Kansas on senior day in College Station, they'd be well served not to lose Iowa St.

Georgia v. Mississippi -- SEC opening round, 6:45 pm -- um, yeah, it's not good to be the Conference Road Sieve (what up Michigan st?) ... that's Ole Miss. a 14-0 non-conference run featuring wins over tourney/waiting line teams #22 Clemson, #39 South Alabama, #54 New Mexico, #109 Winthrop ... was followed by a 7-9 SEC season where they went 1-7 on the road. There were home wins versus #10 vandy, #37 Miss St, #42 Arkansas and #64, so there is something to like (including their 3-0 finish to the season and a road win against Georgia) ... Being 2-1 versus top 25, and 7-4 versus top 100 is balanced against their inexplicable 9-5 versus teams ranked 101-200. It starts with Georgia, a loss and they're done, and probably requires a win over Kentucky to seal.

Utah v. New Mexico, Mountain West quarterfinals, 8:30 pm -- As stated, that UNLV/New Mexico semifinal looms large. Given that it is a road game for New Mexico, the Lobos would be well served to throw it down the Utes throats, in order to give a lasting selection committee impression. They've won 8 of 9, including a huge win over UNLV with their Buffet-invitation hopes on the line (their 1 point loss at home to BYU would've been HUGE) ... they played a Florida/Arizona St-like non conference schedule (266), and but still carry a respectible 53 RPI. But 0 top 25 wins, 4-5 versus top 100 make them a weaker than they'd like. That 8-4 road record, and the winning streak helps, so would making the MWC final.

Arizona v. Stanford, Pac-10 quarterfinals, 8:30 pm - The Buffet thinks Arizona is in, now 16-5 with a full roster, the top schedule in the country, and that decimation over Oregon State all suggest, "tourney team" -- but, to be sure, a win over Stanford isn't necessary, but playing them super tough would give the committee another compelling reason why they can't possibly leave the Cats out.