Tuesday, March 17, 2009

Time for the *$&#@*# P.I.G. (a.k.a. no one cares what they think, so lets appease the BCS schools and take a bid away from a deserving small school.)


Alabama State Hornets (20-9, 19-2 SWAC, 179 RPI, 340 SOS, 4-1 neutral ct, 8-7 road)
vs

Morehead
State
Eagles (17-15, 15-6 OVC, 141 RPI, 189 SOS, 3-2 neutral ct, 4-12 road)

Line: Morehead State -3


Play-In Game. Just as its name suggests, this game is not Kosher to the Buffet. The only thing in sports nearly as infuriating as the bowl championship series, two teams play an entire regular season schedule and win their conference tournament, only to get placed in a glorified NIT game so one extra team that went .500 in their conference, won 1-2 road games, and lost in the 1st round of their conference tournament (and have zero chance at contending for the title) can get a tournament bid.


Instead, once again, the Buffet will tout the idea it has had for years – how about let ALL teams that actually earn a berth, i.e. win their conference tournament and garner an automatic bid to the tournament, play in the tournament they earned their way into, and instead, open up the final two at-large bids, as in the two places in the tournament that are awarded via subjective criteria and not actually earning anything, to the play-in game.


For instance, based on seeding, Arizona & Wisconsin were the final two teams given invites to the tournament … so take the first two teams out, say Penn State and Saint Mary’s, and have the four teams play in Dayton, placing the winners in 2 open at-large spots (a 10, 11, 12 or 13 seed) to play on Friday. How much more compelling would a Arizona/Saint Mary’s and Wisconsin/San Diego State be, than Alabama St & Morehead St, that people barely even get on their radar, if for no other reason than winning the right to be Louisville’s sacrificial lamb isn’t exactly compelling television.


In any event, the play-in game is happening, and it does not involved Waiting Line teams, so let’s take a look.


Alabama State
won 19 of their 21 SWAC game, and had average win margin of 17 points (which is slightly skewed by wins over 44 & 37 in the middle of their conference season), now they were tested on occasion, but they always answered – beating Southern at home 64-60, and then turning around and winning by 37 on Southern’s home floor.


Chief Kickingstallionsims


You know the Buffet, we want to love this kid with all of our heart – there is nothing more important than names – problem is, The Chief is 7’1, 265 pounds – and he’s not even the leading rebounder on his team. I mean, come on. In a conference where the next tallest guy who plays 10 minutes or more on any other team is 6’9”, it is unconscionable that he does not dominate the glass. But, yes, Alabama State does have a player who is 7’1, 265 pounds.


More importantly, they have Wesley Jones. Not the team’s leading scorer, only 9.4 per game, but he averages 7 rebounds, shoots 36% from three (for a power forward), and was a major difference in the lineup after sitting out all of non-conference play due to transfer rules (came from Ole Miss) – the 6’7, 210 Junior forward from Beatrice, Alabama makes this team better.


Statistically, the team is powered by two players;
  • Stat sheet filler, Brandon Brooks (13.8 pts, 4.1 rebs, 6.8 assists, 1.3 steals and a 40% three-point shooter) – he is heavy on the turnover (3.2 per game) – but when he goes, so do the Hornets – his near triple-double versus Illinois State (MVC tourney runners up) in Dallas – 21 points, 9 rebounds, 8 assists had the Hornets (minus Wesley Jones) – down just 2 points with 26 seconds left (after a furious comeback took a 21 point deficit all the way down to 2 – 39-19 run over the course of 14 minutes).
  • 6’2 Senior Guard from Dallas is the teams heart and soul His backcourt mate – tall, lanky Andrew Hayles, a 6’6, 196 lb senior guard from Mobile – chips in 13.6 points and 3.4 rebounds,

The impressive part about Alabama State is that they play about 9 deep – 6 guys average 20+ minutes per game, with 4 others ranging from 12 minutes to 19.


The other impressive part, they’ve found two different ways to spell and already oddly spelled name – or as Leif Diva Beaver would say – “common spelling”” – in Tremayne Moorer a 6’6 sophomore from Mosses, Alabama and Tramaine Butler, a 6’3 freshman well out of his comfort zone from Detroit, Michigan.


The rotation also includes:

Roland Fitch, 6’7, F, Soph – Livingston, AL - 19.1 minutes, 9.8 points, 3.6 rebounds

Rashad Provitt, 6’7, Sr G-F from Montgomery, AL – 25.8 minutes, 6.0 pts, 5.5 rebs – but this kid, a 38% field goal shooter and 52% FT shooter should never move a basketball near a basket.


Tramaine Butler, 6’3, Fr G from Detroit – 15.3 minutes, 4.7 points, 2.5 rebounds, and a horrific 39% ft shooter.


Ivory White, 6’4 Freshman G from Greensboro, AL – 22.3 minutes, 4.7 pts, 3.9 rebs


Menji Mundadi, 6’3 Jr. G from Chicago, IL – 11.6 minutes, 3.6 pts, 2.0 rebs, 29.9% fg shooter


Another factor consider, is that Alabama State plays this season with a heavy heart, as the approach the one year anniversary of the tragic & shocking collapse and death of DeShean Porchea, a sophomore from Rochester, NY, collapsed during a pick-up basketball last April and never regained consciousness.


Essential stats:
A bit limited in our available analysis of Alabama State – but, instructive games include:

77-71 loss to Illinois State on a neutral court
56-51 loss at SMU
76-67 loss at SEC tourney champs Mississippi St
85-81 loss at Ole Miss (which Wesley Jones had to watch from the sidelines in streets)
77-72 loss at Auburn (10-6 in the SEC)



Long and short of it, other than a blowout loss at Nebraska and a 13 point loss at Southern Miss, this team has been competitive in every non-conference game they played this season, and we know already what they did in conference play.



Morehead State
finished exactly where the OVC coaches thought they would – fourth in the OVC, and it took an untimely 3 game conference losing streak (4 overall, after losing @ Kent St on BracketBusters) to accomplish that – they peaked at the right time, rattling off 3 wins in the conference tourney, including taking out OVC #1 seed the Skyhawks of Tennessee-Martin and OVC standout Lester Hudson.


12-6 in conference (12-3 until they sputtered towards the end), followed a solid but generally unsuccessful non-conference schedule, that included blowout losses at Drake (16), Louisville (38), and Vanderbilt (26).


The Eagles are led in scoring by 6’5 senior forward Leon Buchanan (Albany, GA) averaging 15.1 ppg to to go with 6.3 rpg and shooting 52.4 FG%, 80.3 FT%)

But the difference in Morehead St in the OVC tourney was the emergence of F/C Kenneth Faried, a 6-8 Soph from Newark, New Jersey who averaged 13.9 ppg, 12.8 rpg, and 2 blocks per game on the season (to go with a 56.6 FG%) and turned that up to 17 points and 15 rebounds per game in the OVC tourney (this kid has games of 24-17, 1-11, 14-14, 19-11, 23-19, 14-20, 20-18, 16-13, 22-15, 17-12, 22-17 and 27-24) – long and shot, he is a force – although, buyer beward – he did pull a disappearing act in three of their higher profile games; 4-7 against Vanderbilt, 11-6 versus Drake, and 6-11 versus Louisville … which speaks more to the potential first round rematch than tonights game. The Chief is going to have his hands full.

Other starters include:

G Demonte Harper, 6-4, Soph from Nasheville – 10.8 ppg, 3.4 apg, 35.7 3FG%, 77.5 FT%, 1.2 spg

G Maze Stallworth, 6-4, Jr. from Elizabethtown, NJ – 12.1 ppg, 37.7 3FG%, 78.2 FT%

G Brandon Shingles, 6-3, Jr. from Albany, Georgia (high school teammate of Leon Buchanan) and 5.0 pts, 3.9 assists, smooth shooting: 50.6 FG%, 77.5 FT%.

Off the Bench:


G Robert Murry, 5-10, Jr. from Cleveland, Georgia (does Georgia name cities itself, or just steal them from everywhere else?) 8.3 ppg, 75.5 FT%

G Terrance Hill, 6-1, Fr. from Columbus (you guessed it), Georgia - 4.0 ppg, 1.6 rpg)

Essential Statistics:

ATS Overall:
18-12
ATS as a Favorite:
6-6
ATS on Neutral Courts:
3-1
ATS in March:
3-0
ATS against Teams with Winning Records:
12-3

Key games:
L @ UL-Monroe: 56-54
L @ Vanderbilt: 74-48
L @ Louisville: 79-41
L vs. FAMU: 79-74
L vs. Grambling: 72-71
W v. UCF: 71-65
L @ Illinois State (*common opponent alert*): 76-70
L H James Madison 74-62


Buffet Bottom Line:

From conference rankings (SWAC: 31 and last; OVC: 22); to the potential dominance of Kenneth Faried, to common sense dictating that Morehead State ought to win this game … the number of tough games that Alabama State played against top quality competition that we’re in for a big game from Brandon Brooks & Wesley Jones. They are a better team with Jones, who wasn’t there for their high volume of close games early in the season.

Buffet says:
Take the Hornets and the points, and while you do so, please enjoy more fun from the CHIEF.


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