On the Boardwalk

[AUTHOR'S NOTE: For the readers who haven't spent an entire night hammering Grey Goose and tonic and playing blackjack at the Montez Resort and Casino in the 'no with Keith and Mrs. Keith, please allow myself to introduce me. My name is Dan, I'm the sole proprietor of the Buffet's Minto Avenue outpost in scenic Cincinnati, Ohio. And I'm here to tell you about the Atlantic 10.]

"Jesus, Huggins, would it kill you to get a jog in once in a while?"

The Atlantic 10

Tournament Site: Boardwalk Hall, Atlantic City.

Dates: March 11 (first round), March 12 (quarterfinals), March 13 (semis), March 14 (final).

Defending Champion: Temple

Regular Season Champion: Xavier (12-4)

"I am so wasted right now."

The Season In Review

Xavier made it three regular-season championships in a row, finishing 12-4 and a game ahead of contenders Rhode Island, Dayton, and Temple. The Musketeers’ stout non-conference slate (wins over Memphis, Mizzou, Virginia Tech, and Cincinnati with losses to Butler and Duke) evidently prepared them well for the A-10 grind. There are cracks in the foundation, however, as X lost 4 of its last 5 road games in the league, including a horrible loss at Charlotte. Still, as the 2004 Musketeers (notable for a 20-point demolition of undefeated St. Joe's and crushing Scott Schwartz's spirit in a regional semifinal win over his beloved Longhorns) proved, X has the potential to turn it around at any time.

Not only did David West score 47 points in a 2003 game against Dayton, but he also executed the "I stole your nose" trick on a befuddled Keith Waleskowski.

Dan’s All-League Team

G - Dionte Christmas, Temple

F - Ahmad Nivins, St. Joseph’s

G – Aaron Jackson, Duquesne

F – BJ Raymond, Xavier

G – Jimmy Barron, Rhode Island

(Note that I did write this prior to the actual coaches’ selections, which were identical to my own.)

POY – Nivins (ditto)

COY - The league chose Jim Barron, which strikes me as ludicrous given how badly URI underachieved through the end of January. For me, this award ought to go to Ron Everhart of Duquesne, who has turned around a moribund program and made them a factor in the league. Or they could give it to Sean Miller again.

Ahmad Nivins doesn't have time for this shit.

Previewing the Tournament

The A-10’s at-large hopes the last few years were perhaps best summarized by Kyle Whelliston’s equation: A = X + Y, where A = tournament bids, X = Xavier, and Y = the number of teams that beat Xavier. Three weeks ago, with the Musketeers off to a flying 20-2, 8-0 start, Whelliston was probably right. Three straight road losses later, the sense of inevitability has deserted the Muskies, and now four teams—and conceivably seven—have a shot at the title.

The Atlantic 10 tournament has not been this wide open since Xavier’s mad rush to the tournament title in Cincinnati four years ago.

(In Russian) "I've taken craps bigger than this guy."

Here’s how I see it playing out:

First things first – In the past ten years, Xavier has never won the A-10 title in a year where the Musketeers are assured of an at-large bid before the tournament begins. Knowing Sean Miller’s style, his team will be tapering for the Big Dance and is unlikely to take the prize in Atlantic City.

Go with what works – By contrast, Temple has made a habit of winning this thing. With the addition of Fernandez and the maturation of bigs Lavoy Allen and Sergio Olmos, don’t be surprised to see the Owls grind out another A-10 tourney title and, in the process, cause Cincinnati coach Mick Cronin’s fetus-head to turn bright purple and explode.

Fading – Tough to see either Dayton or St. Joe’s, teams that have struggled in recent weeks, reversing that trend and making a run.

There are no words.

Four-day heroes – The only A-10 teams to win four games in four days are the 2004 and 2006 Xavier squads. But there are three teams in the field that have the capacity for such a run. Charlotte and St. Louis are playing inspired basketball and have the talent to catapult themselves through the field. UMass has been a hilariously inconsistent club all season, but their win at Kansas and double-digit victories over Temple and Dayton demonstrates a team capable of anything. Their starting backcourt of Chris Lowe and Ricky Harris is maybe the league’s best.

"My name is Fran Dunphy and I want to make sweet love to you in the back of my windowless white van."

Predictions?

Opening Round Contests - Wednesday, March 11

#8 La Salle vs. #9 St. Louis

La Salle 60, SLU 52. Not even Majerus’ gravitational pull is enough to get the faltering Bills past an improving Explorers club.

#5 St. Joseph's vs. #12 Charlotte

Charlotte 73, SJU 66. Upset of the tournament, as Lamont Mack and company decide to play for once.

#7 Duquesne vs. #10 Massachusetts

Duquesne 88, UMass 70. UMass played great in their last game and, therefore, will crap the bed today.

#6 Richmond vs. #11 St. Bonaventure

Richmond 66, Bonnies 65. Keep an eye on SBU’s Andrew Nicholson. The freshman PG was the league’s top newcomer.

"Dammit Lisch, you ate the last eclair."

Quarterfinals – Thursday, March 12

#1 Xavier vs. La Salle

Xavier 73, La Salle 68. Muskies have too much frontcourt depth.

#4 Temple vs. Charlotte

Temple 72, Charlotte 60. Temple rounds into shape, Lavoy Allen punishes a weak 49ers front line.

#2 Rhode Island vs Duquesne

Duquesne 90, URI 88. The two most explosive teams in the league go basket-for-basket. I like AJAX and the Dukes to knock off Jim Barron, his kid, and his luxuriant mustache.

#3 Dayton vs. Richmond

Dayton 55, Richmond 54. Almost an impossible game to call. UD plays bruising defense but can’t score. This game will hinge on Dayton’s outside shooting, particularly the contributions of Marcus and Chris Johnson.

Semifinals – Friday, March 12.

Xavier vs. Temple

Temple 72, Xavier 70. Owls avenge an earlier defeat at the Cintas Center. Dionte Christmas, who couldn’t hit a cow’s ass with a banjo in Cincinnati, finds his range.

Dayton vs. Duquesne

Dayton 81, Duquesne 72. Flyers make it a troika of wins over the Dukies.

Final – Saturday, March 13.

Temple vs. Dayton

Temple 66, Dayton 60. Temple prevails (again) in a possession-by-possession affair. Point guard play proves the difference.

"Neitzel, if you make one more Christmas joke I'm going to punch you in the balls."

And the Postseason...

I view Xavier as somewhere between a 4 and 6 seed depending largely on factors beyond their control. Frankly this team is enigmatic enough to have a Vanderbilt-style flameout or, alternatively, rampage into the second weekend.

Dayton is solidly on the good side of the bubble, but a few more Cleveland State surprises and the Flyers could be sweating it out on Selection Sunday. Ultimately this team plays too poorly away from UD Arena to be a factor in the Tournament, and is a dead lock for a first weekend exit.

Since I picked Temple to win the Tournament, I'm obligated to mention them here. Without an A-10 title, though, the Owls are a lock for the NIT.

Rhode Island had the chance to get back on the bubble but honked at home to UMass...you've got to think that they are on the outside looking in, even with a win over Dayton and trip to the final.

Duquesne is a solid bet for the NIT or CBI, and could make noise in either field.

Appropos of nothing, please to enjoy these Youtube highlights of Xavier freshman Brad Redford in high school.

[Thus ends the sermon. Go forth and enjoy.]