So, yeah, we're 1-1. But, it also took the worst meltdown in NCAA "tournament" (quotes for the fact that we're still not sure yesterday and today is really the NCAA tournament) history. It also took two over the worst extended coaching strategies to get there. Dave Rice to have his BYU team, a decent fast break offense, try to run, run, run with Iona's 1-dimensionally focused fastbreak offense. Last time we saw BYU, they were trying to play an untempo game, with a better opponent, and they were blown out. Fortunately, the chasm between Mark Few and Tim Cluess, a very good recruited, as coaches, is like the difference between a choice cut prime rib streak at a fine steakhouse and the steak on the surf and turf combo at a Reno Baby Reno strip club.
Now, let's take a look at the balance of the games, Line picks only, the Buffet spends too much time decided if Ohio State is going to win by 17, 7 or 777 - often times, this means, we don't focus on whether they will actually win that game (bad example), think more like, we think VCU will cover 6.5 against Wichita St, and hopefully present a solidly compelling reason why - but do we think VCU will upset them? Maybe, maybe not. We just care if the score is 51 (through 57) to 50, Wichita St, and even VCU wins? That's gravy. Also, we obviously do not feel strongly about every game. If we did, we would return from Vegas on more than one occasion in the last 12 years with more than a few dollars in profits. But, like we're about to hear, we feel compelled to bet every game, and guess what never goes well? That strategy.
*Note: Lines are as of 3pm ET, 3/14*
In an event, for entertainment purposes ONLY, here goes the Buffet Thinks Deeply About Lines, 2012:
Since we write this and others (the # of which is questionable) read it, we get to credit ourselves even when the time stamp says we were late. But, let's just say, there was zero question the pick was Vermont. Getting points? Really? Lamar is terrible. Awful. And before I insult a team of hard working kids who overachieved, it's really on their coach. He literally took a program his Dad gave limited legitimacy and a modicum of relevancy to, and tore it shreds. SHREDS. Like your newly created in Sim City when you overdo it on the nuclear power plantage, and your city suffers a nuclear meltdown. What Pat Knight did at TTU is what the animated screen looks like following said meltdown. We might have supported Lamar in this game had they decided to go Bud Kilmer, and Devon Lamb turned to that sound byte loving, substance-free attention whore and said "Only way we're going out on that court tonight is without you" (*All opinions of the Buffet are just that, opinions, and do not necessarily reflect the opinions [but they should] of the Buffet's readership or the good people at www.blogger.com). They didn't, and Four McGlynn. FOUR. YORK. VERMONT. Four McGlynn made them pay.
Game 4. California v. South Florida - another completed game by posting.
Game 5. Colorado St. v Murray St. -4
An interesting match up. You look at the rosters, and see, whoa, Colorado St doesn't have a guy over 6'8 in their rotation, BINGO, this isn't the big bad BCS-school trap everyonen lazy college basketball "analyst" promised all year would doom the Racers. With their tallest major rotation guy at 6'6, Murray St is actually "taller" - Ed Daniel and Aska go 6'7, Colorado St's height figures give you the (mistaken) impression that their game is to get out and run, run, ru. Well, here's assuming Tim Miles learned from his former-MWC brethren's big mistake and doesn't come out trying to run with a far better running team. Also, running isn't Colorado State's game. They are methodical, careful with the ball and try to take advantage of open looks and blown defensive assignments. But, on the flipside, their not much of an opportunistic defense who tries to exploit the mistakes of their opponents. Instead, they pack in a man-to-man and try to dictate tempo through 35 seconds of defensive each trip, gearing up for defensive rebounds, and requiring great outside shooting. On offense, they love the perimeter short, will take teams down who get impatient, jack bad shots, and underestimate Colorado St. Thing is, Murray can be frenetic to a fault, but Colorado State isn't a turnover forcer, and Murray defends the 33, giving up only 29.5% per game to opponents. The biggest thing for the Buffet is Colorado State's road work. Or lack thereof. Colorado State was 6-10 away from home, beating only UTEP (by 3), Air Force (by 10) & Northern Colorado (by 14) on the road, and TCU (by 21), SMU (19) and Jacksonville St (23) on neutral courts. Otherwise they lost 10 times outside of Colorado Springs by an average of 14 points per game (17 when against the top 100, and 18.7 when playing the top 25, like Murray is). Maybe people will be impressed that they beat UNLV, SD St and New Mexico. Tell them that they lost by 23, 10 and 33 to those same 3 teams when they played them not on the Rams own floor). Take Murray. Give the points.
Game 6 - Southern Miss v Kansas St (-5)
Money moving toward So Miss this week, opened at -6, must be the really hot way Southern Miss ended the season, losing to Houston, UTEP, beating Rice by 2, SMU (who fired their coach) by 7, East Carolina by 3 in overtime, which was bookended by a pair of losses to Marshall (a good team, but still, not in the tournament). A more fun matchup would have been Iowa St v Southern Miss - could have pitted Larry Eustachy's band of transfer castoffs and rap sheet dominators versus the Mayor's Merry Band of Transfer Misfits, oh well. This one will be fun too, Southern Miss is a relentless team, using effort and athleticism to mask deficiencies in raw basketball talent, and they are foul drawing outfit. Kansas State is similar - physically, deliberate, and experienced. They lost Jacob Pullen, but bring back many of their 2011 pieces, plus talented (but erratic) freshman PG Angel Rodriguez, and Kansas St plays games like they're daring the opponent to engage in a fist fight. Southern Miss may not posses the strong body of wins, but they certainly won't back down from a fight. They also like to pounce on mistakes and get out and run, so this game may likely come down how calm Rodriguez can keep himself (or how much Frank Martin can froth in AR's face to make him calm down). If he limits his turnovers, and they keep Southern Miss from getting out in transition, the Wildcats should be able to turn them away and win this by 7-10. The X Factor is Jamar Samuels, if he continues his upward trajectory, Kansas State should comfortably cover your line. But, watch out early, if Southern Miss isn't getting pushed around and causing turnovers, pound that second half line, because So Miss can keep it close and Kansas St can get impatient and unravel. Kansas St minus the five.
Game 7 - Davidson at Louisville -7.5
We'll keep this short, we still cannot quite understand how Davidson beat Kansas. Anyone who watched the Southern Conference on the live streaming feed on their computer, while working, a number too large to count, saw that Davidson couldn't put away a Western Illinois team, who may have been playing "inspired" but, how far should that take you? Our guess is the early season puzzlers were the result of not understanding how to play Davidson - a volume shooting team, their shooting percentages don’t really draw your attention, but their status as one of the nations top scoring teams – 37th in adjusted offensive efficiency – does. They like to launch, and don’t care much for defense. It’s an interesting matchup, because Louisville is just the opposite, and can sometimes lead on-lookers to a “stab my own eyes out” impulse response to watching the Cardinals on O. Our thought is athleticism trumps, as Louisville melted down last year to give Morehead St the win, but, appropriately enough (given the coaching matchup) wagers should remember that Kenneth Faried isn’t walking through that door. Here’s the thing, can Louisville win by 8? Games against similarly high schoring teams (that is they like to score, not that they’re similar in style/skill to Davidson) has produced games of 79 (Long Beach), 95 (Memphis), 62 (Kentucky), 84 (Marquette, after only scoring 63 the first time – perhaps they learned). The best model is Wichita St’s – who trounced this Davidson team 91-74 in the Wildcats own gym. Davidson won’t go away, but Louisville seems to have just enough. A close game for longer than those on Louisville will like, ultimately we see about an 11 point Cardinals win. Louisville, give them the points
Game 8 – Montana @ Wisconsin – 9.5
We’re not picking the upset, but we think Montana can hang in this game. Wisconsin likes slow-paced, low scoring affairs – they gave up 65 points or more only 4 times (going 1-3). And their unique style offers so many opportunities for confusion, and it works quite often. This game should be interesting, Montana likes a faster pace, but also only gave up 62 points per game, so if Wisconsin slows them down and they suddenly see less shots for themselves, they’re won’t be panic because they know they can keep the Badgers off the scoreboard as well. And we like X-factor Mathias Ward, the best kept secret from the North, and he exploded in the BST, leading the Grizzlies in scoring twice, despite not doing since since 2011. Also Kareem Jamar and Will Cherry are a backcourt that rivals any. The big downside – no one in Montana’s top 7 go bigger than Ward’s 6’7, and we worry about foul trouble in a surefire slow it down, Bo Ryan wrestling match. If this game ends up double-digits on your board, we think Montana will give you a shot some $$ that others don’t see. But, under 9, and you’re foul trouble from a losing ticket. At 9.5, we think we like Montana, but that’s only for the sake of not hedging on the Blog, come tomorrow we’ll wait to see where things level out. The deciding factor might be schedule – Montana didn’t play anyone, Wisconsin did, so either Wayne Tinkle’s squad just won’t know any better or they’ll be in awe of the big bad wolf from their section (north, just so you know) of the USA
Game 9 - BYU v Marquette -6
Buffet still doesn’t think much of BYU, except they are clearly resilient, have a coach who may have made an egregious strategy error, but is the anti-Mike D’Antoni, and will admit mistake, correct flaws in game plan and coaching strategy, and end up turning the tide on the biggest comeback in NCAA “tournament” history – but here’s the thing. Marquette is like Iona. Great backcourt, run teams to death. BYU was ran to death on Tuesday, but it was a Wesley, you know, the Dread Pirate Roberts, dead from Princess Bride – they were only mostly dead – and came back. Don’t see Marquette giving them the same chance, especially since BYU, even though they had nearly 2 weeks off between their last two games, surely have to hit a holy shit, we made a 25 point game back, Marquette is relentless, we’re exhausted, wall at some point. Take Marquette, give the 6 - which by the way, we’d be inclined to take without the extenuating factors. Iona is now BYU’s only good win this season (because, as stated, Gonzaga doesn’t count, since BYU lost to them 2 other occasions, including blowout fashion on a neutral court). Oh, and not that it’s totally conclusive, because it is singling out one game for each team, many moons ago, but BYU lost by 17 on a neutral court to Wisconsin (rethinking that Montana pick, aren’t you) and Marquette beat the same Badger squad, in Madison 61-54 (see TAKE THE UNDER, Wisconsin even slowed down Marquette).
Game 10 – UNC-Asheville v Syracuse -15
There’s not a ton of science here – UNC-Asheville has some talent players given their school – and their results don’t scream 16 seed: lost by 16 at home to UNC, lost by 10 on a neutral court v Connecticut, 9 at NC State – but those were in November. On BB, they lost by 19 at Ohio. Syracuse with or without FABulous Student are not Ohio*. This line has been moving towards the Bulldogs, nothing like a nice ill-timed suspension to let the rest of us reap some free money. Now, people wonder if Syracuse blows people out. Well, against the teams they faced ranked 100+ (Asheville is 104) – they won by an average of 24 points, just the top 100, you ask – 20.7, against nonBE teams? 27.3. We think Syracuse will have something to prove, with lots of people jumping on Kansas State! Instead of them… Oh, wait, Buffet – what about how they did without Fab? Well, they did lose. In South Bend, to a rapidly rising Irish team, that played just the most flawless game played by a team playing the role of 20 years playing like their the over-40 entrant in a Rec league, who foul, drain 3s and methodically (but effectively) suck the life out of a game, and then beat Cincinnati & West Virginia at home - Syracuse is the pick, and America is helping you.
*Apologies to David Friedman, D.J. Cooper and Gary Trent
Game 11 - Long Beach State v. New Mexico
February 15, 2012. The day after Valentine’s Day. The day after Arizona turned 100 years old. The day after one of the Buffet’s original subscribers turned 34. But also the day the Buffet stood up and took notice that New Mexico – to the Buffet, they were randomly favored at SD State, and the Buffet wanted to jump on the Aztecs immediately. A 77-67 New Mexico wire to wire win later, we believed. Now Casper Ware, in him we always believed, which makes this prediction somewhat to very biased. But, here’s the thing. If Larry Anderson plays, we have and always like LBSU. These are very stylistically different teams. UNM is a deliberate, efficient, sharing team that have no one averaging 13 or more, but they pound the glass, play well in rhythm and are methodical and effective. LBSU plays in transition, Casper Ware starts feeling it, and his outstanding supporting cast: Phelps, Robinson, Caffey, Anderson, Ennis .. all five starters received postseason awards from the Big West. This team won at the Zoo, made UNC, Kansas, San Diego St, Creighton all hit their limits on their own floors – they have been through battles and know what it’s like to be on the wrong side, and if not dealing with Larry Anderson’s injury, they would have 1 loss, on a Doug McDermott miracle since 2011. We like this team, so our pick needs a grain of salt, but if Anderson plays – go 49ers, if not, the Lobos and round 2 will become close friends.
In the interest of time, we will give our picks for the remaining games, which means, sans analysis, you should trust your own judgment and use us as a tiebreaker, at best.
Game 12 – Harvard v. Vanderbilt, -7
Buffet really likes Vandy here
Game 13 – Western Kentucky v Kentucy -25
Can you really bet on WKU?
Game 14 – VCU v Wichita St -6.5
Just done see VCU losing by 7 points, this does not change the Buffet’s belief that Wichita St is a final four contender.
Game 15 – West Virginia v Gonzaga
Toughest game of the day. Gonzaga is better, they fill out every position, come up big in tough spots – but Huggins maximizes in the tournament, and that could be Jones & Bryant do more than sound like a law firm for the next 4 days. Pick is Gonzaga, but tepidly.
Game 16 UConn v Iowa St
Iowa St with the upset, it’ll be treated big, Calhoun's back, defending champs, etc - UConn has some talented people, but a their idea of how to bring them together cohesively as a team after Kemba has had mixed results. We do like how they looked at the end of the year, and the emotional lift of Calhoun being back - that said, Royce White is a bona fide star, watching him play in the variety of positions that they've asked of him will entertain you to no end. You'll forget that the Mayor pulled a Governor Barbour and wiped the slate clean on a 1000 transfers in order to boost his coaching record, because they're fun, they work hard and honestly strive to earn the reprieve. Give it to them, watch as Lamb and Napier fight for "most shots taken" and the Cyclones get taken lightly, and Scott Christopherson shoots 3s to make 'em pay for it.
The last paragraph was sponsored by our good friends at Kettle One. It is why it might not make sense, or weirdly disregard a strong UConn team. Oh well, we'll stick to it. The rest of the game to be previewed later and/or simply be listed with a preferred pick and no analysis due to time.
