From 3000 miles in the air*, for the first time since the invention of the Buffet, welcome to a post-13 Days of Conference Tourneys Buffet. We’ll bring you game by game analysis, what the Buffet thinks the odds should be versus what they are … and maybe some of the biting wit and incomparable prose that you’ve come to love from the Buffet.
*For context sake, the Buffet’s editorial staff is off to Japan – and we’re 7 hours and 3 movies in – and there are several factors motivating this Blog entry.
1. The Buffet was put on earth to pick (wrongly, more often than not) the games of the first round of the NCAA tournament.
2. There has not been one first weekend of the tournament from the day, in March, 2001, that new papa Gregory Douglas Ott turned to the Editorial Staff and explained the virtues of the first weekend spent in Vegas has the Buffet missed a first weekend in Vegas, and here we are 4 days away and the Buffet is flying 10 hours West of the annual March landing spot.
3. It is quite literally like airline executives all got together to devise a movie schedule strategically for American passengers to have the fondest air travel memories … in-bound flights to the US? They feature 3 best picture nominees, and a Spike Jonze adaptation of a classic children’s book featuring Tony Soprano. Flying outbound? A Robert Deniro mood-movie that someone forgot to tell him he was actually in, a Ricky Gervais film that forgot to be funny, and the depressing, but true, cinematic highlight: Whip It! Yes. A girls’ roller derby movie directed by Drew Barrymore was the best movie on a 13 hour flight.
The highlights: Marcia Gay “Joe Mencher” Harden; ignoring the atrociousness of the script (which was developed by the author of the book herself, so there is zero excuse) and acting her face off; learning that Juno can play something other than smart-alec pregnant teen; various shots of Austin (the Alamo Draft House, the “Hi How Are You?” frog/alien mural painted on the side of the building (now a sushi restaurant) on the drag at 21st and Guadalupe, Waterloo Ice House; an awesome clip of mid-1990s UT football featuring a form tackle by Aaron Humphrey; some very nifty small details by Drew Barrymore – at one point the roller derby coach, yes they have coaches, called in a play, except the featured team has a pair of hearing-impaired players (think the tight end in The Replacements), instead of ignoring this detail, just before the players head back to the rink? Surface? Track? The coach is careful to flash the play board to the player so as to make sure she got the instructions. The soundtrack – you want to give the Buffet some MGMT, we will return happiness to you.
The lowlights: Pretty much the entire movie. Drew Barrymore’s acting. Kristen Wiig playing a serious role. Jimmy Fallon playing a non-serious role that wasn’t actually funny. Eve acting at all. Andrew Wilson, who apparently approached his role as ‘quirky roller derby coach’ by watching every Jason Lee movie ever made and endeavoring to mimic his voice, intonation and expressions.
One more highlight (non-movie edition, but took place during the movie) – the two people two my left, who introduced themselves to one another when we all first sat down, who are now laying all over each other in the two seats next to me. Awkward? Perhaps. But even the Buffet can appreciate the blossoming what it sure to be a long-lasting and fulfilling relationship for the both of them.
So, with the motivation in place, the subject set, and apparently zero traces of exhaustion – which would be nice, since the staff just adjusted the clock on this computer to Tokyo time, and we just lost 11 hours of time in the process. Whoa – its time to take a look at the 1st round of the 2010 NCAA tournament. And yes, the Buffet understands what it means to put all picks on display and potentially let everyone know what you don't know. Bring on the loss of credibility:
Kansas v. Lehigh – It’s not like heaping praise on the Jayhawks is novel, this is arguably the nation’s most balanced team – a senior floor general who can take over a game with a flip of switch (see his quiet effort on senior night versus Kansas St, that quickly turned into a show of dominance and will), a skilled off-guard who can essentially be a 2nd point guard on the floor (Tyshawn Taylor), an explosive wing-man who is talented enough to be leaned on, young enough to not realize how bright the lights are in the tournament, and selfless enough to understand that when necessary (Xavier Henry), this is Sherron Collins’ team, a big man who works both ends of the court and is quietly what makes this team go (Cole Aldrich), and twins. I mean, unless they play for Stanford, who doesn’t respect some twins. (Ronnell and Donnell Taylor, anyone? You know, UAB when UAB was still cool?) KU has been a tour du force in 2009-2010, 32 wins in 34 games, including near Big 12 perfection, you know the top rated conference by RPI, no big deal, scoring 81 points per game, giving up just 64, outperforming their opponents in just about every major category, and playing a relentless man-to-man defense that helps neutralize the tried and true tournament upset-trap –(together with over-confidence by the higher seed, and a crowd thirsty for an upset) - unconscious 3-point shooting by the double-digit seed…
Speaking of which, that’s who opposes Kansas in their first-round matchup, the 9th ranked 3point shooting team in the nation. A lot of swing passing and an offensive system that would make Norman Dale proud, Lehigh is methodical when at their best, and draining 3 after three. A man-to-man defensive team, with a slight zone mix-in, the Buffet openly wonders where the athletes who can stay with Kansas’ depth and the big man to keep Cole Aldrich from having a career game are going to come from? Lehigh exhibits a healthy reliance on youth, the nation’s leading freshman scorer (yes, that includes you John Wall, Xavier Henry, DeMarcus Cousins, and any of the Underachieving Trio down in Austin) C.J. McCollum, and a point guard (Marquis Hall) who is a top-notch floor general, but happens to find shooting to be among life’s greatest obstacles.
Common Opponents: None.
Instructive Opponents: Lehigh fell to tournament teams Richmond by 12, Waiting Liner Dayton by 18.
Kansas roughed up teams in the field, trouncing Oakland 89-59, California 84-69, and Temple 84-52, knocking around Texas 80-68 in Austin, Missou on the road with nothing on the line, 82-65, even waking early enough on senior night to put away Kansas State, 82-65.
If there’s an Achilles heel with this year’s Jayhawk outfit it’s a periodic lack of killer instinct – it caused their only losses of the season (failing to put it to an injury/suspension depleted Tennessee team and sleeping walking through Stillwater with an undefeated Big 12 season in their grasp), but also led them to be closer than comfort against Colorado, as well as Cornell in Lawrence. Even v. K-State on Senior Night, Bill Self noticed a lack of hunger. But when they are mal-nourished? Wow. That 32 point show in Philly was something to behold. But does it take a top-notch outfit like Temple, Missouri, and the Pac-10 champs to get KU’s attention? That’s the question.
Analysis: Kansas will win this game. Yes, the kind of cutting edge of journalism that separates the Buffet from the rest of the college hoops blogging community. But, more to the point, the Buffet sees a 25 point win the future – 90-65.
Buffet Line: KU -25
Opening Line: Kansas -26.5
Northern Iowa v. UNLV
Take the under. No, seriously. People hear the name “UNLV” and think of Larry Johnson, Greg Anthony, and a wide-open, defensive-free style where 100 points was harder for some NBA teams to come by than the Runnin’ Rebels. That’s not the 2010 Lon Kruger Rebels. A team that plays an intense, in-your-face defense, whose offense pretty much is Tre’Von Willis and the Mayor, Oscar Bellfield running around ball screens trying to create offense. They have a deep deep bench – former starter and standout performer, Matt Shaw sits on it, along with 40% 3pt shooter Kendall Wallce – and an x-factor in Chace Stanback, the UCLA transfer who has rocketed to be a nice second to Tre’Von on many nights.
On the other side, you’ve got Northern Iowa – the prototypical Missou Valley outfit who doesn’t score a whole lot, gives up even less. We’ll call them the 60-point Panthers, since they are 19-0 when they score 60 or more points. Fueled by a couple of great names – KWADZO! Ahelegbe, who seems to be a less-athletic Tre’Von Willis, in that he is the lone Panther who can penetrate at will, but forces the action on occasion, and is not a great deeper shooter, Ali Farokhmanesh, the 3point bomber on a team who doesn’t shoot so great from 3, streaky as you’d expect but when he’s on, UNI is tough to beat, Jordan Eglseder, patient, good decision-making and ginormous (7’0, 280 pounds) – he quickly became a Buffet favorite. The best part about UNI is Adam Koch. Not just because his brother Jake is on the team (The Buffet loves itself some nepotism), not only because he wasn’t top 10 in any statistical category but still was named MVC Player of the Year, but that he went scoreless in the MVC Tournament final and Northern Iowa still won by 15.
Here’s the issue: offense. The reference to a new-school UNLV team being on display is nice, but they still average over 70 points per game – UNI? 63? That’s gross folks. That’s, “it’s freezing in Chicago in the middle of January, and all I get to watch is this 42-40 with 4 minutes left in the game contest between Wisconsin and Michigan State? Really?” gross. But they are relentless on defense, make you do things you don’t want to, and will likely earn the right to get blown out by Kansas in round 2.
Common opponents: Southern Illinois: UNLV defeated So Illinois at home by 9 in late November; UNI swept the Salukis – winning by 12 in Illinois in early January and then squeaking out a 5-pt in at home in early February.
Wyoming: UNLV had no problem sweeping the Cowboys, by 28 on the road and then 18 at home, Northern Iowa was equally harsh, with an 18 point home win.
Instructive Games: After the emotional rush of an electric crowd and a win over BYU, UNLV came back and gave the Mountain West tourney title away to San Diego St, losing by 10 in an ugly 55-45 game that one worries might carry over to the tournament. Pretty much if Northern Iowa can ugly it up, UNLV may struggle (see earlier 68-58 loss to the Aztecs, 67-56 loss to Southern California). On the other hand, UNLV had some quality wins this year, over Louisville (they of the Syracuse sweep), at tournament #3 seed, New Mexico, a 10 point win over SD St in Las Vegas, and a pair of wins over BYU.
Northern Iowa doesn’t have the same caliber on their slate, minus a 17 point home win (82 points!) over Buffet favorite and tourney 13 seed, Siena and a 9 point home win over Old Dominion. In fact, their occasional struggles on the road (losses to Wichita St, Bradley, Evansville) is a cause for concern.
Buffet Analysis: Wow. Tough. Back and forth over this one … but the potential for UNLV’s offense to go in the tank is sticking out, and Northern Iowa’s lack of care if it happens to them when it comes to ultimate outcome of game (they can find a win to win either way) tips the scales just slightly in favor of Northern Iowa.
Buffet’s Line: Northern Iowa -1.5
Opening Odds: PICK ‘EM
Michigan State v. New Mexico St
Good year to be a D-1 college basketball outfit in New Mexico, huh? This was actually one of the Buffet’s prouder 13 Days of Conference tourney week calls – there’s always shenanigans in the WAC (how many times have we had to sweat out whether Bernard Rock’s alma mater would get the at-large call come selection Sunday, just slightly more times than the Buffet has won $$$ beating on the Aggies and Rock in the tourney (yes, 2000, a +18 line versus Connecticut came through, as did the +9.5 line versus Ohio State (an underrated multi-timed upset victim in modern days – sort of like UofA in the early to mid 1990s) in 2001), where were we? Oh yeah, New Mexico St vs. Michigan State and WAC tourney shenanigans – just before the start of the WAC tourney, the Buffet correctly predicted a vastly-improved and reliable betting target New Mexico St for the tourney victory. The Buffet guarantees that if Michigan St doesn’t absolutely limit them, you will grow to like this team, and with only 1 senior, you just may get the chance regardless of outcome. A take-off of the 7 seconds or less Suns, they love to get the ball hoisted in the air early in the offense and make the defense focus from the start. A different team once the academically ineligible “Give me my name back” Troy Gillenwater became eligible, they won a pair of classics in the B.L.C. last this past weekend that makes them a momentum-target. Jahmar Young can flat out score, and on defense, N.Mexico St is all about pressure, trapping and making people uncomfortable. Much like the man sitting next the Buffet’s editor on the airplane, who has fallen asleep on his shoulder no less than 5 times during this trip.
The Big 10 does not get a lot of respect among the Buffet’s readers. Not that it’s a poor conference, but the style of play doesn’t inspire a ton of admiration. But if you can’t respect what Tom Izzo can do with 12 basketball players, then you ought to find something else to follow. Cool stat? Not only is Michigan St the only team to appear in 5 of the last 11 final fours (only reprinted that stat because its ridiculous, how many different ways can we spin that and have a new team as the “only”), but the true cool fact: ever 4 year player Izzo has ever signed as a recruit has played in a Final Four. This year, he has taken a team riddled with injuries, inconsistent play by team leaders, a lack of frontcourt scoring punch, and far less depth than last year’s final four team and still powered to a 24-8 record a share of the regular season Big 10 title. The motion offense is an art when run well by the Spartans, and Kalin Lucas can do just that, and a tough defense mixed with a “everybody rebounds” approach – but the Spartans have question marks surrounding them, a heavy reliance on Lucas, discord among the players (Chris Allen was suspended to start the Big 10 tournament), and that makes them ripe for a circus game with New Mexico State.
Common Opponents: None.
New Mexico St. is a tough team to figure – won 2 of 3 from Utah State, split a home and home with UTEP (the road team winning each time), but lost a pair of 32-point decisions (1 to tourney bound St. Mary’s and the other to 2009-2010 struggler UCLA (at the height of their struggles in mid-December) … meanwhile Michigan St took care of business for the most part, but had random struggles, including a 2-4 stretch after a 9-0 conference start. The Buffet says Michigan St advances, but gets a bit of a scare in the process.
Buffet’s Line: Michigan St. -6
Opening Odds: Michigan state -12
*In the interest of time, and given the fact that the Buffet is in Japan, the analysis is about to pay the price, with shorter blurbs leading to the pics.
Houston v. Maryland
Houston is your typical conference tournament hero. They are just one week removed from playing really well, so the tendency is to overvalue them. Aubrey Coleman is great, but it turns out they really aren’t that good – and neither, really, was Conference USA this year. A lot of turnovers contribute to this, plus Grevis Vazquez is pretty great too, and he leads a team that won its conference (a better conference) over more than a 3-game period. The thing is, Maryland does really blow people out, and Houston doesn’t get blown out, so you could be looking a points spread upset, even though I don’t expect Maryland to be upset where it matters, in the final score.
Buffet’s Line: Maryland -7
Opening Odds: Maryland -9
San Diego St. v. Tennessee: Go to give it to the Aztecs, this team is probably less talented overall than last year’s NCAA snubbed team, but facing another bubble decision headed into the MWC tourney, this defensive-minded squad, an excellent coaching job from Steve Fisher, (heretofore that would be read as an oxymoron) went in and won the tournament, beating UNLV on their home floor – and Tennessee looked vulnerable in the SEC tournament. But then again, (see: Maryland v. Houston), they also looked pretty dominant blowing out SEC final qualifier Mississippi St in the season finale (probably what kept Miss State from the tournament) and the Buffet is still mindful of their strength in sports crisis, banding together amidst injury and suspension following the New Year’s Eve Guns & Limo Fiasco, to beat the #1 team in the nation.
Another thing to consider – while a real talent, DJ Gay is a wingman forced to play the point because of personnel – that and SD State propensity to turn the ball over could be trouble when facing Tennessee’s pressure D. What could keep SD State in it? Their ferocious rebounding. They are playing some good ball right now, and has the Buffet starting to hedge upon though. But we’ll stay with it..
Buffet’s Line: Tennessee -3
Opening Odds: Tennessee -3.5
Ohio University v. Georgetown
While Ohio has solid guard play (a tournament must) and are a different since DeVaughn Washington returned from suspension (9-3, and one of the 3 losses was in double-OT) BUT, the guard play isn’t particularly good shooting, and the Buffet is still struggling to discover someone who will actually cover Greg Monroe. Although they didn’t fear the Roo, the Bobcats will likely bow to the Hoya.
Buffet’s Odds: Georgetown -12.5
Opening Odds: Georgetown -13.5
Georgia Tech v. Oklahoma St.
An interesting game, featuring a pair of scoring wings plus talented, but foul prone bigs versus a pair of uber-talented bigs with erratic but athletic guards. The tourney is about guards, so normally while I’d take erattica over the parade of fouls that Moses and Pilgrim (those names seem oddly synchronized, don’t they?) are sure to be the Grand Marshalls of, the Buffert can’t ignore than over the course of the season (leading up to the conference tournament especially), Oklahoma State was simply the better team, and James Anderson will be the best player on that court.
Buffet’s Odds: Oklahoma State -1.5
Opening Odds: PICK (has moved to -1.5)
Ohio State v. UCSB
Evan Turner. Evan Turner. Evan Turner.
A deep, talented team with a lock down defender will spell Ohio State’s ouster in march (should anyone fit that description). The Gauchos possess none of those characteristics.
Buffet’s Odds: Ohio State -15.5
Opening Odds: Ohio State -16.5
Kentucky v. East Tenn State
Its nice that ETSU has found a way to dominate a new conference after owning the Southern Conference for all those years. I really hope they found a way to appreciate their success, or that they can find a way to appreciate the success John Wall, DeMarcus Cousins and Co. are going to have in the first round.
Buffet’s Odds: Kentucky -20
Opening Odds: Kentucky -24
Wake Forest v. Texas
A Buffet Gut Feeling: We see Ishmael Smith running circles are Ustin Mas’n (not just no J, no O either), J’Covan Brown, and Jai “maybe Barnes though Kalin was the transfer” Lucas.
But we also see a severely flawed Wake Forest team, and AA-candidate in Damian James, and the fact that Texas did handle the average tournament teams even during their slide, just not complete or fully competent ones. Luckily, for the faithful in Austin – Wake happens to be average.
From an odds standpoint, Texas is a bit overinflated, if it sits at 4 or higher, think about grabbing Wake
Buffet’s Odds: Texas -3
Opening Odds: Texas -4
Temple v. Cornell
Together with Richmond/St. Mary’s, a frustrating matchup that deprives a possible 2nd round from a good team – also a underseeded matchup – both teams are better than the #s next to their name – this will be the type of game where Cornell makes enough shots early to be all over Greg Gumbel’s radar – but ultimately Temple’s D (which is much better than people (especially those who saw the Kansas/Temple game) believe) will take over and this game becomes unwatchable to everyone but Fran Dunphy who loves it. Also, watch for the former assistant subplot between Dunphy and former assistant and Big Red head coach, Steve Donahue.
Buffet Odds: Temple -6.5
Opening Odds: Temple -4
Wofford v. Wisconsin–
Wofford is better than you think, a well-constructed small school basketball team, and their early season results reflect this, playing Pitt tough at home, a nice win over South Carolina, and in a comparison test, Wofford had Michigan St within 2 points with 8:00+ minutes left in East Lansing, whereas Wisconsin lost by 7 there and beat the Spartans at home – what does that mean? Not much, just needed to add in few extra words. We still see the upset here. But then again, you watch Wisconsin play for a bit of time, and you can usually see an upset in their future, and then Bo Ryan doesn’t end up losing in the first round…
Buffet Line: Wofford -2
Opening Odds: Wisconsin -9
Washington v. Marquette
Washington is hot at the right time, a pretty talented team that never took off this year for some reason, and no one loves a close game more than Marquette, but they are the better team, so we’ll stick with the Golden Eages.
Buffet’s Odds: -.5
Opening Odds: -1
Montana v. New Mexico
The 20 point comeback against Weber State was nice, but if you fell down 20 points to Weber State, how far will you fall down to New Mexico? Who is a lot less likely to give the points back like Weber allowed.
Buffet’s Odds: New Mexico -13
Opening Odds: New Mexico -9
Clemson v. Missouri
No Justin Safford = no true covered on Trevor Booker, means the Buffet is foolishly not learning from history and giving the best first half/worst full game NCAA tournament bet 3 years running another shot – simply, this Missou team, Buffet icon Mike Anderson or no Mike Anderson, is not 2009 Missouri.
Buffet’s Odds: Clemson -3.5
Opening Odds: Clemson -1
Morgan St. v. West Virginia
Morgan St is well coached – as evidenced by their ability to score more points, shoot a better FT% and have a higher rebounding margin on the road – but West Virginia is on a mission. We see a double-digit win, but staying more interesting than most people thought and definitely for longer than most people thought.
Buffet’s Odds: W.Virginia -12.5
Opening Odds: W.Virginia -18
Duke v. Arkansas-Pine Bluff
Duke is a bully. This will be a typical Duke first round game, the other team hangs around for a bit, but not long. Everyone you are watching with except the girl who graduated from Duke starts getting their hopes up that Dick Vitale won’t get to talk about his favorite team until the 2010-2011 season, then they’ll turn it on. Kyle Singler will do annoying things, and they’ll win by 20 or so. And no matter what you did, bet on them/bet against them, they will not cover that either, and you’ll be two times the bitterness at duke.
Buffet’s Odds: -23
Opening Odds: Duke -23
California v. Louisville
This is a pair of 2 pretty overrated teams, but three senior guards versus a Louisville team with a coach who often seems like his best efforts were given on the floor of Porcini, and not in getting constant focus for his talented by attention-deficient squad.
Cal restores some pride to the Pac-10.
Buffet’s Odds: California -2.5
Opening Odds: Cal -1
Texas A&M v. Utah St
This has all the makings of a very boring game, given the amount of defense and missed shots both teams like to produce. But A&M has more absolute talent, and that should ultimately carry the day.
Buffet Line: Texas A&M -5.5
Opening Odds: Texas A&M -2
Purdue v. Siena
No Hummel. No Final Four for Purdue. And now E’Tuwan Moore is banged up too? March on Saints.
Buffet Line: Siena -1
Opening Odds: Purdue -3.5
Notre Dame. V Old Dominion
A bit of an upset as the Notre Dame revival closes at the hands of Mark West’s alma mater.
Buffet Odds: Old Dominion -2
Opening Odds: Notre Dame -2
Baylor v. Sam Houston St
Randomly close game as Sam Houston likes Baylor’s preferred pace, when the Bearkats finally hit a dry spell midway through the second half, then Baylor will assert its advantage.
Buffet Odds: Baylor -11
Opening Odds: Baylor -12
Richmond v. St. Mary’s
It annoys the Buffet that these two teams must play each other in the first round, the 3-point shooting/inside/ouside bonanza that is Randy Bennett’s Gaels versus the precision that is Chris Mooney’s Spiders… Frustrating. Richmond’s poise wins it.
Buffet Odds: Richmond -3
Opening Odds: Richmond +1
Robert Morris v. Villanova
Closest thing to a ridiculous upset first two days – RMU can defend the rock, but Nova turns on the heat just in time and will survive to see another day
Buffet Odds: Villanova -8,5
Opening Odds: Villanova -19.5
Syracuse v. Vermont
The game that drips with irony – Vermont is slightly better than your typical 16 seed, but still not nearly as good or even close to as good as Syracuse, no matter how you spell it, with or without Arinze Onuaku.
Buffet Odds: -15.5
Opening Odds: Syracuse -18.5
Florida St. v. Gonzaga
Tough game to call, there’s a lot to like about Florida State, but their season-long results aren’t wow-worthy – Gonzaga looks like a weaker than usual version, but they played a lot of tough competition and Matt Bouldin is a rare underrated star from Spokane. Like the Zags here.
Buffet Odds: Gonzaga -3.5
Opening Odds: PICK
Butler v. UTEP
Diametric opposites should make this game fun, but the length and athleticism up front, should make it the annual 5-12 upset.
Buffet Odds: UTEP -3
Opening Odds: Butler -3
Vanderbilt v. Murray St
The sexy upset pick of 2010 (behind Purdue/Siena, which the Buffet isn’t even sure is an upset anymore), but Vandy is balanced and fared really well against fellow higher seeded tournament teams. Murray St is deep, forces turnovers and can score … but that was all against really weak competition. We’re not seeing the upset here.
Buffet Odds: Vandy -7.5
Opening Odds: Vandy -4.5
Minnesota v. Xavier
Minnesota’s momentum carries, Xavier realizes they overachieved and wait for 2010-11, when they were originally supposed to have their next strong season.
Buffet Odds: Minnesota -2.5
Opening Odds: PICK
Pittsburgh v. Oakland
After watching this offensively challenged (what else is new) Pitt team, its tough to pick them in a double-digit line against anyone.
Buffet Odds: Pittsburgh-9.5
Opening Odds: Pittsburgh -10.5
Kansas St. v. North Texas
Playing in geographic proximity to the Big 12, surely the Mean Green has heard of the accomplishments in Manhattan, Kansas this year. Now they’ll get to experience it firsthand for themselves
Buffet Odds: Kansas State -18.5
Opening Odds: Kansas State -15.5
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