Welcome back to the Buffet-Lite after our mid-tournament cattle ranch break and after the quarterfinal slaughter of most of the tournament favorites. Let's recap: Portugal (winner of Group A) was beaten soundly by Germany. Croatia (winner of Group B) was beaten dramatically by Turkey, this tournament's version of the 1998 Arizona "Cardiac Cardinals". Group C winner Nederlands was beaten deservedly by the amazing Andrei Arshavin and Russia. In fact, only one group winner, Spain, managed to win their quarterfinal match when they beat Italy on penalty kicks. It was a wild set of quarterfinals, one where the Hotline picks were 3/4 wrong - sorry.
Despite all of the above, and after deep meditation on the semi-finals, Buffet-Lite is ready to preview the semifinal matchups. If you've been betting along with the Hotline you are still up overall, but not satisfied by any means. It's time to change that.
June 25 - 1st Semifinal live from Basel.
Germany v. Turkey.
As you might have guessed, Germany is the heavy favorite in this match. In fact, the current oddsmaker line has a Turkey win at "6.5", meaning your $10 bet would win $55. DO NOT BE TEMPTED. The Turkey is going to be well-done at the end of 90 minutes. Turkey's first team is either injured or suspended due to yellow card accumulation. They don't have anyone left to score goals. For instance, the Hotline will remember the memorable 2 goals in the final 3 minutes against the Czech Republic by Nihat Kahveci - He's out injured. Turkish captain Servet Cetin you may ask - out injured. The list goes on. Turkey has a lot of heart as they have shown against the Czechs and the Croats...but as Mr. Green said to Ms. Scarlett, "The gig is up."
Germany has not played well yet in this tournament and they are semi-finalists. Scary. Germany looked awful in the group stage. They looked good against Portugal in the quarterfinal - but they still weren't as dominant as they can be. But with Sebastian Schweinsteiger and Michael Ballack playing as well as they did against Portugal, and Miroslav Klose finally showing a pulse, it looks like Germany is getting close to peaking. This is bad news for Turkey.
You don't win much by choosing Germany - but it's what is going to happen.
Buffet-Lite does not think that there will be many goals scored in this game. It would not be surprising to see Turkey play for penalty kicks from the opening whistle. I like Germany to win 2-0 in the 90 minutes. That means Germany and the under.
Caution to the Hotline: remember that soccer bets are always only for the 90 minutes of regular time. Take the tie if you see extra time in this game.
1 comment:
Damn my sports book and stupid Germany -1. I had the Germans and the over since Turkey has a habit of scoring goals even when horribly overmatched. So I pushed with Germany but won with the over, which financed tomorrows bet....
Russia (+.5) and the under. After watching Spaniards exchange short passes for 120 minutes of scoreless fun, I'm selling the Spanish offense. I'm betting the Russians have a bit of revenge motivation after the 4-1 Arshavinless drubbing they took in the group stage and will come out with passion. I like Russian to build from the back and not be picked apart by the short spanish passing. After a scoreless first half I like a 1-0 Russian victory. Chances Leif's next coffee mug has Andrei Arshavin on it???
Post a Comment