Euro 2008 - June 19

And on to the first quarterfinal we go.

I can happily state that there will be no more picks based on trying to guage who has a better second team. There will also be no more picks based on whether a team has the pride to play hard although they are already out of the tournament. Top teams will be on display from here on out, so hopefully that will help the Hotline predictions which have been above .500, but not by much.

Portugal v. Germany:

Germany recap:

• This is not the game that Monaco expected in the quarterfinals. Before the tournament began, Germany was picked as the tournament favorite. Germany blew through qualification like an Iowa tornado, but once they reached the big dance, they have looked uncreative and nervous - then again, Germans are always nervous.




• You know Germany is simply off their game when Austria, FIFA rank of 92 (Note: the soccer powerhouses of Equatorial Guinea - #74 - and Zimbabwe - #85 are ranked higher) plays them evenly. In fact, if not for Austria lining up their wall 5 yards/4.572 meters too far to the right, Germany wouldn't have scored. Seriously - Michael Ballack shouldn't be able to blast the ball straight to the far post without the goalkeeper being able to cover that.




• In any event, Germany survived. But Germany are no longer the favorites. Germany has been greatly hindered by the fact that their most relied upon striker, Miroslav Klose, has continued to be in the same horrible form that he finished the club season in. The Hotline may remember this same Klose tearing apart defenses consistently in both the 2002 and 2006 World Cups. In this tournament, Klose is lucky if he doesn't whiff on every ball that rolls toward him.




• Lucas Podolski, the 2006 World Cup "Young Footballer of the Tournament" has been in good form. He has 3 goals in the tournament, putting him in second place for the golden boot behind David Villa of Spain.




• Michael Ballack is in relatively good form. Where is Sebastian Schweinsteiger? He plays, but he is not the same player he was a couple of years ago. Overall, it appears that Germany are just not in form at the moment.

Portugal recap:

• Like Germany, Portugal was one of the pre-tournament favorites. Unlike Germany, Portugal deserved it. Portugal manages to be dangerous without having a true striker. They do this through the incredible speed of their wing play and a solid midfield general in Deco. On the wings, of course are the duo of Cristiano Ronaldo (Manchester United) and Ricardo Quaresma (FC Porto). Together they run circles around defenses, and when you cause that kind of confusion, a true striker tends to be unnecessary.




• The Portugese finished first place in their group after defeating both Turkey and the Czech Republic, then losing to host Switzerland after playing all of their second team. Their loss to the Swiss should not be taken into account. Portugal didn't care about that game, and it showed. The Swiss were playing for pride at home, and came away with the win.

The Prediction:

• Under normal circumstances with both teams playing well, the Hotline pick would still be Portugal. Portugal is faster, more creative, and has a decent defense. Germany looks overwhelmed in this competition and I expect more today.



• Hotline pick, Portugal 2, Germany 1. Take Portugal to win and the over (2.5).



• I expect a Portugal goal in the first half, a second at the beginning of the second half, and a German goal near the end that will be too little too late.
  
  

Leif out.