Euro 2008 - June 17

If this doesn't cheer up the Hotline I don't know what will. Snoopy drinks a 6 pack a day and has found that Schlitz gives him reflexes like Zohan and the agility of Cartman.

Please excuse the one day absence, but the Buffet-Lite took a day off to mourn its failure to pick the wins by Turkey and Switzerland on Sunday (and to do some time-sensitive projects for the day job). These unexpected gambling losses for the Hotline were eye openers and were a good time to take a short break as attention begins to turn toward the knock-out stage. But its time to get back on the gambling horse. The Hotline is still up for the tournament, although not by much. And anyway, if there is anything that Turkey's late comeback taught us is that life is not always about logic (see also Hillary Clinton post-loss victory speech / see also election of Jesse "The Body" Ventura as governor / see also the production of Rocky VI).

On that note, on to the games!

June 17:

Group B recap:

Netherlands 6 points (2 wins - against France and Italy)

Romania 2 points (2 ties - against France and Italy)

France 1 point (tie against Romania, loss to Netherlands)

Italy 1 point (tie against Romania, loss to Netherlands)

Netherlands v. Romania

• The Netherlands have been the team of the tournament. Their beautiful attacking play has been the envy of every other team in the field. They are as fun to watch as Greece is awful. So the question for today is how will the Dutch respond to this final group game that means nothing for their place in the next round? They will qualify first out of Group B no matter how they do against Romania.


• But the Dutch have claimed that they will not pull a Portugal and field a second string squad against the Romanians. They claim that playing a lesser team against Romania will hurt their excellent form. For some reason I believe them. The Dutch may start a few players who have recently started on the bench, but they will still beat the Romanians. Heaven forbid that the Netherlands is forced to start Robin Van Persie instead of Dirk Kuyt.


• Romania has been excellent at clogging up the middle and playing forgettable matches against both Italy and France. But the Romanians have heavy motivation in this game. A win, and they are off to the knock-out round as the second place team in Group B.


• Despite the Romanian motivation, the Hotline pick is that the Netherlands pulls away to win 3-1. I like Netherlands and the over. The Netherlands is a rhythm team that is incapable of playing for a tie. They are either a free wheeling team that scores goals or they don't even show up. Here's hoping that they keep on scoring in bunches.

France v. Italy

• Who would have predicted that these 2 teams would be tied for last place in Group B after 2 games? Probably only Otter since he hasn't missed a sports gambling prediction since late 2004.


• France has been without a true playmaker in the middle for their first two games. That playmaker usually is Patrick Viera (now that Zidane is retired), but Viera has been injured with a muscle strain. There are reports that he may play against Italy, but even if he plays he won't be at full strength. Franck Ribery has been France's best player through 2 games, but that isn't saying much. It has been a poor tournament for Les Bleus.


• Italy didn't look awful against the Netherlands. The difference was that the Netherlands scored their chances and Italy did not. A valid argument could be raised that Italy has had to suffer through an incorrect refereeing decision in each of their games (the onside/offside debate for Van Nistelrooy's opener and the late Romanian penalty kick that Buffon saved).


• Italy's problem is that they aren't playing defense like Italy usually does. Likely this is due in part to the absence of World Cup MVP Fabio Cannavaro.


• After two matches, the Hotline believes that Italy is a slightly better team than France and the Italians will pull out a low scoring victory. Italy 1, France 0.


• Take Italy and the under.