The Final

We knew it had to come to an end. Let's go out in style.

Germany vs. Spain

Yesterday, Nicholas Kiefer (Germany) played Rafael Nadal (Spain) at Wimbledon. It was a Spanish route with Nadal winning in 3 sets. Today, it's Michael Ballack vs. Xavi Hernandez; Miroslav Klose vs. Carles Puyol; Bastian Schweinsteiger vs. Andres Iniesta; Jens Lehman vs. Iker Casillas; bratwurst vs. Paella. It's a great matchup of the Germans, who always seem to win when it matters, versus the Spanish, who always seem to lose.

Spain thoroughly deserved their victory over the Russians. Buffet-Lite still doesn't understand why Russia looked so scared and tentative. Andrei Arshavin barely touched the ball - certainly not looking like a player who should be a hot transfer to Chelsea or Barcelona, as rumored.

Germany managed to squeak by the Turks with a last-minute goal by defender Phillip Lahm - Turkey's heroic run coming to an end.

Germany is not missing any key players for today's game. Spain is missing the tournament's top goalscorer, David Villa. Not that this is necessarily a fatal injury - spain has many capable goalscorers, including Cesc Fabregas. I still can't put Danny Guiza in that category though, despite his goal in the semifinal. He seems so awkward.

I think the German aerial superiority will win this game. I expect a goal be Sebastian Schweinsteiger and Miroslav Klose and a goal from Spain by Fabregas to make it interesting, but Germany will win 2-1 in the 90 minutes.

There is something about Spain's play in this tournament that doesn't allow me to believe that they will beat Germany. They do a lot of short passing that doesn't really go anywhere and I think the Germans are such a good tactical team that they will be fine letting Spain pass the ball at midfield and wait for their chances.

Germany is also playing this game with heavy fan support since they are much closer to home than the Iberians.

The oddsmakers have Spain as a slight favorite and believe it will be under 2 goals. I like Germany and the over.

Buffet-Lite is now officially signed-off from the world of blogs. See you in 2010.

Euro 2008 - June 26

Posting just a bit before today's gametime. It's a been a busy couple of days for Buffet-Lite, so excuse the lateness. Above you will find Andrei Arshavin of Russia after introducing himself to the Dutch in the quarterfinals.

Germany v. Turkey recap:

Turkey was amazing. I don't know how they did it, but they once again played better than anyone could have imagined. They took an early lead and once again had late game heroics when they tied it at 2 with just a few minutes to go. Lucky for the Germans, Phillip Lahm was did a Rich Denneny full field run from left fullback to score the game winner.

If you didn't see the replay of Sebastian Schweinsteiger's first half goal - you should. He took a low cross from Lucas Podolski and just flicked the ball with the outside of the foot, letting the power from Podolski's cross do all the work. The ball glided into the back of the net and there was nothing that the Turkish keeper could do to keep it out. Beautiful.

I'd like to be able to talk about the Miroslav Klose goal, but unfortunately I still haven't seen it since the ESPN feed went out in the middle of the second half. In fact, the ESPN crew declared the game was over based on the video feed from the fan zone which showed German fans celebrating. Miserable. Although I'm happy that all of the Euro games were aired in the U.S. this year, it would have been nice if ESPN actually sent people to watch the game in person, instead of relying on a video feed. At least then we could have had Andy Gray telling us about what was happening instead of relying on the fan zone reaction.

Russia v. Spain:

Otter and I are in complete agreement on this one - which always is comforting. Even though Russia was beaten by Spain badly in the first game of the group stage, Russia is going to win this semifinal. Russia is a young team without a whole lot of international experience. Every game they have played in this tournament they have improved. That has been helped in large part by the additiona of Andrei Arshavin, their midfield leader who just got done running the Nederlands defense ragged in the quarterfinal game. Arshavin is the hottest prospect coming out of this tournament and is looking to move from his Zenit St. Petersburg club to either Spain or England. If he keeps up his current form, he could move anywhere he wants.

Spain has been unconvincing despite making it to the semifinal. They beat an under-strength Italian team in penalty kicks, although they overall played better than Italy and deserved the win. Spain has scored a lot of goals in this tournament - David Villa has 4. Russia has been scoring more goals as the tournament goes on and Arshavin has decided to dominate.

Russia and Spain play similar open and offensive-minded styles of soccer. I think Russia will win this game, however, because they have been more dangerous in recent games. Throw out that group stage victory. It's meaningless now that Arshavin is playing because Russia is clearly a different team with him in the lineup.

I like this to be a relatively high scoring game (unlike Otter) with Russia winning 2-1 in 90 minutes. So the over is in order with a Russian victory. Russia is the serious underdog, so if all goes according to plan, this is a moneymaker.

Euro 2008 - June 25

Welcome back to the Buffet-Lite after our mid-tournament cattle ranch break and after the quarterfinal slaughter of most of the tournament favorites. Let's recap: Portugal (winner of Group A) was beaten soundly by Germany. Croatia (winner of Group B) was beaten dramatically by Turkey, this tournament's version of the 1998 Arizona "Cardiac Cardinals". Group C winner Nederlands was beaten deservedly by the amazing Andrei Arshavin and Russia. In fact, only one group winner, Spain, managed to win their quarterfinal match when they beat Italy on penalty kicks. It was a wild set of quarterfinals, one where the Hotline picks were 3/4 wrong - sorry.

Despite all of the above, and after deep meditation on the semi-finals, Buffet-Lite is ready to preview the semifinal matchups. If you've been betting along with the Hotline you are still up overall, but not satisfied by any means. It's time to change that.

June 25 - 1st Semifinal live from Basel.

Germany v. Turkey.

As you might have guessed, Germany is the heavy favorite in this match. In fact, the current oddsmaker line has a Turkey win at "6.5", meaning your $10 bet would win $55. DO NOT BE TEMPTED. The Turkey is going to be well-done at the end of 90 minutes. Turkey's first team is either injured or suspended due to yellow card accumulation. They don't have anyone left to score goals. For instance, the Hotline will remember the memorable 2 goals in the final 3 minutes against the Czech Republic by Nihat Kahveci - He's out injured. Turkish captain Servet Cetin you may ask - out injured. The list goes on. Turkey has a lot of heart as they have shown against the Czechs and the Croats...but as Mr. Green said to Ms. Scarlett, "The gig is up."

Germany has not played well yet in this tournament and they are semi-finalists. Scary. Germany looked awful in the group stage. They looked good against Portugal in the quarterfinal - but they still weren't as dominant as they can be. But with Sebastian Schweinsteiger and Michael Ballack playing as well as they did against Portugal, and Miroslav Klose finally showing a pulse, it looks like Germany is getting close to peaking. This is bad news for Turkey.

You don't win much by choosing Germany - but it's what is going to happen.

Buffet-Lite does not think that there will be many goals scored in this game. It would not be surprising to see Turkey play for penalty kicks from the opening whistle. I like Germany to win 2-0 in the 90 minutes. That means Germany and the under.

Caution to the Hotline: remember that soccer bets are always only for the 90 minutes of regular time. Take the tie if you see extra time in this game.

Euro 2008 - June 20

Meet Mrs. Sebastian Schweinsteiger, aka Sarah Brander. Her presence is St. Jakob's stadium yesterday had quite an effect. Some may consider her to be the anti-Jessica Simpson. But who is the guy sneezing in her face?

As the Hotline mentioned in its last post as it predicted a German defeat, Sebastian Schweinsteiger, the German midfielder has not been playing well. He has frankly seemed uninspired. No more. He was everywhere yesterday as Germany deservedly beat Portugal. Sure there were tough breaks for Portugal, such as when Joao Moutinho, the Portugese captain, inexplicably could not deside if he was going to head or kick a beautiful cross into the goal, and so settled for sticking out his knee and the ball popped harmlessly over the goal. It was harder to miss that goal than make it. Even American Eddie Johnson would have scored that goal. Dreadful.

But Schweinsteiger was dominant, Ballack was active, and even Miroslav Klose got a goal, although not cleanly. Schweinsteiger had a free kick that he swerved into the box, Cristiano Ronaldo decided that he didn't feel like playing defense (he never really likes playing defense) and Klose had a free header on goal - no one within 3 meters (The Hotline is now metric friendly). Anyway, Klose was under no pressure and managed to miss heading the ball, but the ball bounced off of his shoulder into the net, for Germany's second goal.

The Hotline got this game horribly wrong. Germany played the USMNTH for the fool. Germany can apparently turn it on and off at will. The Hotline should have known better - always take efficiency over beauty. Take Tiger over Phil. Take Serena Williams over Anna Kournikova. Take Keith Olbermann over Ann Coulter. These mistakes will not be repeated.

On a side note, if Ann Coulter didn't spew hate all day long everyday, would the Hotline find her attractive?

Time for more game predictions. Due to this blogger's weekend trip to the cattle ranch, this will be the last blog for a few days. Luckily there is satellite tv, but not a good internet connection, so I'll cover the weekend's games today.

Croatia v. Turkey:

• The only thing that would make me happier would be if it were Hungary v. Turkey. Add talking animals, and that would be a recipe for disaster. In any event, we are stuck with Croatia v. Turkey. It's an interesting matchup only to the most ardent soccer lovers and sports gamblers.
• Croatia cruised through the first round defeating Germany, Austria and Poland. They have been one of the surprises of the tournament. No one expected them to come out of the German group in first place.
• Turkey are the comeback kids. They are the only team in the tournament to come back from deficits to win a game. Turkey has done it twice, most recently against the Czech Republic. They have shown an impressive ability to play better than their talent.
• Turkey is facing numerous injuries and the suspension of their first choice goalkeeper for his ill-advised push of Jan Koller. In fact, Turkey only have 15 field players available to play today.
• Croatia have all of their players available.
• There is something about Turkey that tells me that they will make this a close game. Croatia isn't the type of team that blows anyone out either.
• Since soccer betting is for the first 90 minutes only (extra time and pks not included), the Hotline prediction is a 1-1 tie. Take the tie and the under. I do expect that Croatia will pull this game out, but not before sweating a bit.

Russia v. Holland:

• This should be a fun game. Both Russia and Holland like to play fast, attacking soccer. Basically it's like watching the Suns play offense and the Lakers playing defense. It should be fun, and high scoring.
• I think both of these teams would beat either Turkey or Croatia - but that's not the way the brackets shook out. Too bad.
• Holland has been the team of the tournament so far - total football at its best. I hope that for the sake of the tournament, they don't make an early exit...and I don't think they will.
• Russia is basically Holland-Lite, similar to how I am Buffet-Lite. If there were a team that would give Holland a lot of trouble with their style of play, I think it would be Germany. It's like the Suns losing to the Golden State Warriors - not going to happen. But if you give them the Spurs - poof - implosion.
• Take Holland and the over.

Spain v. Italy:

• What a quarterfinal matchup. Two soccer mad countries. Both enjoy diving. Both have great soccer hair. Both have like to complain to referees.
• Italy: No Andrea Pirlo -their midfield maestro. No Gennaro Gattuso - their midfield enforcer.
• Spain: What will they do if their short passing gets clogged up by the Italian defense? Will they pour more players forward and over commit - allowing for the famous Italian counter-attack?
• Spain has played well in the tournament - although not dominantly. David Villa is on 4 goals already, and Spain has more midfield creativity than probably anyone in the tournament. I like Spain to take this game. I think the Italian defense is not nearly as strong as usual with the absence of Fabio Cannavaro, and the Italian offense will have too much trouble scoring without Pirlo.
• Spain 3, Italy 1. Take the over as well.
  

Euro 2008 - June 19

And on to the first quarterfinal we go.

I can happily state that there will be no more picks based on trying to guage who has a better second team. There will also be no more picks based on whether a team has the pride to play hard although they are already out of the tournament. Top teams will be on display from here on out, so hopefully that will help the Hotline predictions which have been above .500, but not by much.

Portugal v. Germany:

Germany recap:

• This is not the game that Monaco expected in the quarterfinals. Before the tournament began, Germany was picked as the tournament favorite. Germany blew through qualification like an Iowa tornado, but once they reached the big dance, they have looked uncreative and nervous - then again, Germans are always nervous.




• You know Germany is simply off their game when Austria, FIFA rank of 92 (Note: the soccer powerhouses of Equatorial Guinea - #74 - and Zimbabwe - #85 are ranked higher) plays them evenly. In fact, if not for Austria lining up their wall 5 yards/4.572 meters too far to the right, Germany wouldn't have scored. Seriously - Michael Ballack shouldn't be able to blast the ball straight to the far post without the goalkeeper being able to cover that.




• In any event, Germany survived. But Germany are no longer the favorites. Germany has been greatly hindered by the fact that their most relied upon striker, Miroslav Klose, has continued to be in the same horrible form that he finished the club season in. The Hotline may remember this same Klose tearing apart defenses consistently in both the 2002 and 2006 World Cups. In this tournament, Klose is lucky if he doesn't whiff on every ball that rolls toward him.




• Lucas Podolski, the 2006 World Cup "Young Footballer of the Tournament" has been in good form. He has 3 goals in the tournament, putting him in second place for the golden boot behind David Villa of Spain.




• Michael Ballack is in relatively good form. Where is Sebastian Schweinsteiger? He plays, but he is not the same player he was a couple of years ago. Overall, it appears that Germany are just not in form at the moment.

Portugal recap:

• Like Germany, Portugal was one of the pre-tournament favorites. Unlike Germany, Portugal deserved it. Portugal manages to be dangerous without having a true striker. They do this through the incredible speed of their wing play and a solid midfield general in Deco. On the wings, of course are the duo of Cristiano Ronaldo (Manchester United) and Ricardo Quaresma (FC Porto). Together they run circles around defenses, and when you cause that kind of confusion, a true striker tends to be unnecessary.




• The Portugese finished first place in their group after defeating both Turkey and the Czech Republic, then losing to host Switzerland after playing all of their second team. Their loss to the Swiss should not be taken into account. Portugal didn't care about that game, and it showed. The Swiss were playing for pride at home, and came away with the win.

The Prediction:

• Under normal circumstances with both teams playing well, the Hotline pick would still be Portugal. Portugal is faster, more creative, and has a decent defense. Germany looks overwhelmed in this competition and I expect more today.



• Hotline pick, Portugal 2, Germany 1. Take Portugal to win and the over (2.5).



• I expect a Portugal goal in the first half, a second at the beginning of the second half, and a German goal near the end that will be too little too late.
  
  

Leif out.

Euro 2008 - June 18

The Buffet-Lite is back in style. Yesterday’s matches resulted in victories for The Netherlands and Italy (both Hotline predictions). The two team parlay was good value for your Hotline dollar. It might be the luck of the Snoopy that brought such a good day. Unfortunately, I’m out of more photos of Snoopy drinking beer. I had to resort to my database of "Swedish girls kissing". My apologies.

Today is the final day of matches in Group D, and closes out the round robin play of Euro 2008. It has been a great tournament so far – with more entertaining play than the 2006 World Cup and light-years better than the dreadful Euro 2004 where Greece played Iba ball all the way to the championship.

The favorites to win the tournament now are the Netherlands, Portugal, Spain, and Croatia – in that order. The major disappointments are Germany (who qualified 2nd in their group after Croatia) and France (who have been eliminated), as well as Italy (who qualified for the next round, but haven’t looked like their dominant selves.

On to today’s games…

June 18:

Spain v. Greece
· This is another tough game to read because neither team has much to play for. Greece has already been eliminated from the competition after losing their first two matches. Spain has already qualified for the next round in first place after beating both Spain and Russia. The Greek coach, in a nod to little league coaches everywhere, has decided to play the scrubs and give them a taste of Euro action. Spain is also going to take the opportunity to empty the bench and play many new faces.
· Everyone knows that Greece likes to play defensive soccer and grab an occasional goal through a set piece, but what will their strategy be when they field all new players? Will they open it up? I doubt it. It would be hard for a team to completely change their strategy at this late stage. And Greece surely would not want to be disgraced by losing horribly to Spain. I expect Greece to stick with their defense first approach.
· So basically, the question is whose scrubs are better? I’ll take Spain and the under. The Spanish squad simply has more depth. I’ll take Cesc Fabregas over Teodoro Theoopolous any day.


Sweden v. Russia
The battle for second place. Sweden is ahead in goal difference, so a tie between Sweden and Russia will end up with Sweden qualifying.
Russia is boosted by the return after suspension of a man considered by many to be their best playermaker and goalscorer – Andrei Arshavin. Arshavin has not yet played in Euro 2008. Guus Hiddink, the Russian coach, on one hand says that Arshavin’s return will be great for the squad, but then also says that Arshavin’s fitness is a concern so he might not play. Sounds like silly gamesmanship to me. Arshavin will play. Russia could certainly use the lift up front. Roman Pavyluchenko, aka Ivan Drago, has not had much help.
Sweden has an injury problem to be concerned with…Zlatan Ibrahimovich is planning on playing despite his injured thigh that took him out of the last game (but not after he had scored against Spain). Ibrahimovich is the key for Sweden. He has scored in both of their first two matches and appears to be on his game…it’s just a matter of whether he can move. You know that Fredy Ljundberg and Henrik Larsson can’t be expected to score goals since they have a combined age of 90.
I think this game will reach a 1-1 tie early in the second half and then Sweden will play for a tie. Hotline prediction: Sweden 1, Russia 1. Take the tie and the under.

Euro 2008 - June 17

If this doesn't cheer up the Hotline I don't know what will. Snoopy drinks a 6 pack a day and has found that Schlitz gives him reflexes like Zohan and the agility of Cartman.

Please excuse the one day absence, but the Buffet-Lite took a day off to mourn its failure to pick the wins by Turkey and Switzerland on Sunday (and to do some time-sensitive projects for the day job). These unexpected gambling losses for the Hotline were eye openers and were a good time to take a short break as attention begins to turn toward the knock-out stage. But its time to get back on the gambling horse. The Hotline is still up for the tournament, although not by much. And anyway, if there is anything that Turkey's late comeback taught us is that life is not always about logic (see also Hillary Clinton post-loss victory speech / see also election of Jesse "The Body" Ventura as governor / see also the production of Rocky VI).

On that note, on to the games!

June 17:

Group B recap:

Netherlands 6 points (2 wins - against France and Italy)

Romania 2 points (2 ties - against France and Italy)

France 1 point (tie against Romania, loss to Netherlands)

Italy 1 point (tie against Romania, loss to Netherlands)

Netherlands v. Romania

• The Netherlands have been the team of the tournament. Their beautiful attacking play has been the envy of every other team in the field. They are as fun to watch as Greece is awful. So the question for today is how will the Dutch respond to this final group game that means nothing for their place in the next round? They will qualify first out of Group B no matter how they do against Romania.


• But the Dutch have claimed that they will not pull a Portugal and field a second string squad against the Romanians. They claim that playing a lesser team against Romania will hurt their excellent form. For some reason I believe them. The Dutch may start a few players who have recently started on the bench, but they will still beat the Romanians. Heaven forbid that the Netherlands is forced to start Robin Van Persie instead of Dirk Kuyt.


• Romania has been excellent at clogging up the middle and playing forgettable matches against both Italy and France. But the Romanians have heavy motivation in this game. A win, and they are off to the knock-out round as the second place team in Group B.


• Despite the Romanian motivation, the Hotline pick is that the Netherlands pulls away to win 3-1. I like Netherlands and the over. The Netherlands is a rhythm team that is incapable of playing for a tie. They are either a free wheeling team that scores goals or they don't even show up. Here's hoping that they keep on scoring in bunches.

France v. Italy

• Who would have predicted that these 2 teams would be tied for last place in Group B after 2 games? Probably only Otter since he hasn't missed a sports gambling prediction since late 2004.


• France has been without a true playmaker in the middle for their first two games. That playmaker usually is Patrick Viera (now that Zidane is retired), but Viera has been injured with a muscle strain. There are reports that he may play against Italy, but even if he plays he won't be at full strength. Franck Ribery has been France's best player through 2 games, but that isn't saying much. It has been a poor tournament for Les Bleus.


• Italy didn't look awful against the Netherlands. The difference was that the Netherlands scored their chances and Italy did not. A valid argument could be raised that Italy has had to suffer through an incorrect refereeing decision in each of their games (the onside/offside debate for Van Nistelrooy's opener and the late Romanian penalty kick that Buffon saved).


• Italy's problem is that they aren't playing defense like Italy usually does. Likely this is due in part to the absence of World Cup MVP Fabio Cannavaro.


• After two matches, the Hotline believes that Italy is a slightly better team than France and the Italians will pull out a low scoring victory. Italy 1, France 0.


• Take Italy and the under.

A Hotline meltdown

I can't believe what I've just witnessed. Czech Republic leading 2-0 with 20 minutes to play. Czechs hit the post in the 72nd minute that would have put them up 3-0. Then a goal by Turkey to make it a little interesting. The Hotline rejoiced because at that point the prediction (Czech 2, Turkey 1) and the over had been reached. Simultaneously Portugal/Switzerland remained at 0-0. All was well with the world.

Then Switzerland scored on Portugal, ruining the Hotline tie prediction (and a profitable parlay).

Then chaos: In the 87th minute, Peter Cech, one of the best goalkeepers in the world, botched an easy catch, let the ball slip through his fingers, and the Turkish captain, Nihat Kahveci knocked in the loose ball. Tied at 2-2 it appeared that this game would go to penalty kicks...but that was not to be.

In the 90th minute, Nihat Kahveci did it again. He broke the Czech offside trap and blasted a far post curling ball that hit the underside of the bar and went in. Czech fans in the stadium were stunned. Czech players were stunned.

The Czechs still had 4 minutes of extra time to try and grab a tying goal. To help their cause, the Turkish goalkeeper got a straight red card for pushing Jan Koller to the ground. Now, the Turks were down to 10 men and without any substitutes left had to have a field player put on the goalie jersey and finish the game. Tugay threw on the jersey.

The Czechs tried to push forward and at least test the new non-goalkeeper, but the ref ended the game.

Unbelievable game. The Hotline may disagree, but if you are going to lose money, at least it was through this incredibly exciting game.

Euro 2008 - June 15

Nor are we out of Euro 2008 coverage: The Management.

This blog is being posted close to game time, but this is an advantage for all of you Hotline betters. Team Portugal, who has already qualified, has announced many changes in both players and strategy for their game today against Switzerland. But we'll get to that in a bit.

Yesterday's action brought the Hotline to its now standard 3 out of 4. We missed Russia pulling out a win over Greece, but on the bright side, Greece only has one more game in this tournament. It will be a better day for everyone when this Greece side goes home.

Spain v. Sweden recap:

Just when you thought that the Hotline pick of Spain and the over was looking dead in the water, David Villa poached a late goal in extra time to grab a Spanish victory and our third goal to win the over. Spain’s 2 – 1 win was not truly a steal. As Otter pointed out, Spain should have had their second goal at the end of the first half but the ref swallowed his whistle and didn’t provide a justified penalty kick.

Spain did get the win, but it wasn’t the kind of performance that gives the Hotline confidence that they will be winning this tournament. Spain is good, but their defense is a bit sketchy. Matters weren’t helped when Barcelona captain Carlos Puyol hurt his foot and had to be subbed out before the 30th minute. As Avillo is undoubtedly thinking, not only did that hurt the Spanish defense, but it took the best soccer hair on either team out of the game. Unacceptable.

Russia v. Greece recap

Otter watch: Konstantin Zyryanov. Cool name and now he has a goal in Euro 2008. Russia isn't a very good team. But Greece is a bad team. Hopefully both of these teams will be out of the tournament soon. Greece only scores goals on the counter-attack or on set pieces. So when Russia went up a goal it was always an uphill battle for Greece. This game was not worth any additional commentary.

On to today...

June 15:

Portugal v. Switzerland:

• Under normal circumstances, the Hotline would pick Portugal to beat Switzerland handily, but these are not normal circumstances. Portugal Coach Luis Felipe Scolari is expected to make many changes for his team that has already qualified as the group winner. I would not expect to see Cristiano Ronaldo, or Deco, and other big names. As such, the game is wide open.
• Poor Switzerland. They host this tournament (along with Austria), and they lose their first 2 games. They are already eliminated from the tournament. But if ever there were an already eliminated team with reason to play hard, it's Switzerland.
• Although Portugal will be playing understrength, I don't think the players on the field will be lacking in effort.
• I expect Switzerland to score an early goal, but that Portugal with score a late goal to tie it. Portugal 1, Switzerland 1. Take the tie and the under.

Czech Republic v. Turkey:

• This is the match that means everything today. Unfortunately, it is not being broadcast at Euro 2008 headquarters. It reminds me of the time that I was in Mexico and forced to watch South Korea v. Portugal when simultaneously the U.S. was being pounded by Poland 3-1.
• The Hotline believes that the Czechs have the advantage in this game in creative play, especially now that they have apparently decided to keep Jan Koller on the bench - a solid move. Milan Baros is surprising playing well, and I expect he will have a big game today.
• Turkey pulled out a late goal against Switzerland in their last match, when they really didn't deserve it.
• This will be a close match - but the Czechs will pull it out and qualify in 2nd place out of Group A.
• Czech Republic 2, Turkey 1.

Leif out.

Euro 2008 - June 14

Good living is not something that Italy can claim today. The FIFA World Cup Champions have fallen far quickly. First they get throttled by the Netherlands 3-1 and now today they are lucky to escape with a tie against Romania. Luca Toni might be enjoying the joys of Schlitz sooner rather than later.

The Hotline is not nearly as desperate as Italy. The predictions came through correctly on 3 out of the last 4 selections, bringing out blogging total above a .500 success rate for the first time. Many thanks go out to Tim Donaghy for his never ending support.

The bizarre news story of the day has to be the outrage over yesterday's Austrian tie in the final moments against Poland. The outrage isn't only coming from drunk Polska fans, but also from the Polish Prime Minister, Donald Tusk. After his dear Poland team had a controversial penalty called against them by English referee Howard Webb, Prime Minister Tusk declared that he was so angry he wanted to kill the English ref. Perhaps it is not surprising that now Scotland Yard is providing protection for the English ref, Ireland rejected the European Union constitution, and Belgium invaded Luxembourg. Pandemonium.

Stephen J. Avillo today declared that he was so ashamed of the Italian performance that he was deleting the final vowel from his last name. "I'm so ashamed that I'm deleting the final vowel from my last name", said Avill. In a related note, Otter managed to inject two silent "J"s into his last name to commemorate this day of significant dutch gambling returns.

Saturday, June 14:

Spain v. Sweden

• It is too early to crown Netherlands the champion of this tournament. There are still a couple of other capable teams that cannot be counted out. One of those teams is Spain. Their short passing game and comfort controlling the run of play at all times makes them a favorite.
• Sweden comes off an excellent win over a disappointing Greece team, but they are generally old - other than Inter Milan's superstar forward Zlatan Ibrahimovic.
• Expecting Sweden to stop Spain is like asking Dick Bevetta to call fouls on Kobe Bryant in Game 6. Sweden will put up a good fight, but the final will be Spain 3, Sweden 1.
• Take Spain and the over (2.5).

Greece v. Russia

• Some in the Hotline may remember Roman Pavluchenko's steroid induced late goal against Spain after being belittled by Vladimir Putin. Unfortunatley for Russia, this inspired performance won't be repeated against Greece since Pavluchenko injured himself during practice.
• No matter - this game was not meant for goal scoring anyway. Russia does not have a great playmaker, and Greece doesn't have a pulse. Together they might be able to pull together 2 penalty kick goals and end up tied at 1 apiece. That's your Hotline prediction: Russia 1 - Greece 1.
• Take the Tie and the under (2.5).

It's the weekend so there are no excuses for not watching these games closely. Although the Hotline has pulled above .500, this is only the beginning. Stay tuned.

Euro 2008 - June 12

It is with profound disbelief that Schlitz beer recaps the first two days of Buffet picks. It was a disappointing 50% effort that is unacceptable to the betting public and the Hotline. A late goal by Turkey ruined a wonderful parlay and turned a joyous celebration into an evening stuck watching "So you think you can dance".

But have no fear...more games are near.

Germany v. Croatia recap:

Leave it to the Germans to fail to close out a group of opponents when they had them in their grasp - or pressed up against an ocean. Some might call it the "Extreme Ops" dilemma: "I'm German, I'm always nervous". A Croatia team that lacked the talent of the German team on paper thoroughly outplayed them. Croatia has heart. Germany has bratwurst. As such, the Germans always seemed a little slower to the ball.

A 2-1 loss to Croatia turns the group on its head with Croatia now the leader with 6 points out of a possible 6 and Germany stuck on 3. Luckily for the Germans, Austria and Poland are not much to worry about, and they are both stuck on a point apiece.

Austria v. Poland recap:

The Hotline was correct in picking a tie and the under in this matchup - although it ended up being 1-1 instead of 0-0, the result is the same for our betting purposes. The game was less dreadful than predicted, but both teams are clearly at the bottom of the group. The main excitement from the match was who would capitalize on the offer from an Austrian beer brewry to receive "beer for life" if they were the first Austrian goal scorer. It took extra time and a dubious penalty kick decision by the referee, but Ivica Vastic, the oldest man in the tournament stepped to the spot and claimed a tie for the Austrians and beer for himself all in one confident strike.

SCHLITZ BEER PRESENTS:

Friday, June 13:

Italy v. Romania

• The Italians did not plan on this game being a must-win, but it is. They don't want to go into their final match with the French without 3 points in their back pocket. The trouble for the Italians is that they have never been known for scoring prowess and Romania has shown an ability to clog up the middle and play for a tie.


• The handicappers in the Principality of Monaco have made Italy a strong favorite, as they should be, but the money to be made in this matchup is surely the under. Where available the Hotline pick is the parlay of Italy and the under (2.5). Italy 1, Romania 0. Most likely it will be an early Italian goal followed by 60 minutes of Luca Toni rolling around on the ground like he just had a vasectomy forced upon him.


• Avillo question of the day: Does the cool soccer hair and uniforms of the Italians make up for them being a bunch of pansy whiners?

The Netherlands v. France:

• The Netherlands aka Holland (Who are the Dutch?) had a great opening match beating the Italians 3-0. Their first goal was a freak off-side goal by Little Johnny Mencher aka Ruud Van Nistelrooy. Their next two goals were clinical counter-attack goals as Italy pushed for an equalizing goal.


• France played an uninspired and scared match against Romania that ended in the always exciting 0-0 tie. Since the French enjoy kissing their sisters, the result shouldn't have come as a surprise.


• Monaco views this game basically as a pickem, giving the slightest of betting edge to The Netherlands. I think the principality is being generous to the French. Their last performance was so uninspiring that I don't see them being able to beat a now super-confident group of low-landers.


• The Hotline pick is Netherlands 2, France 1. Take the Dutch and the over (2.5).

Buffet Lite has decided to makes its blogs daily until the end of the opening round, so stay tuned to this channel for daily 1/2 correct predictions and non-sensical commentary.

Euro 2008 - June 10

Welcome to the first installment of the 2008 European Football Championship blog, brought to you by our title sponsor Schlitz beer - "the tinny taste that made Milwaukee famous". Since the Euro games start at 9:00 am and 12:00 pm in Phoenix, you need a light beer to let you ease into the rest of the day. But don't take my word for it: try a Schlitz.



Spain v. Russia recap:

The early game today was full of action on a soggy pitch. Spain’s David Villa (Valencia – Spain, and no relation to Stephen J. Avillo) took command of the golden boot race by scoring a hat trick against the lethargic Russian defense. Fernando Torres (Liverpool - England) on more than one occasion carved up the Russian defense providing Villa with an empty net for tap in goals. The game was 2-0 at the half. The Russians attempted a comeback, but David Villa’s goal in the 75th minute put the game away at 3-0.

Upon going down 3-0, the Russian president, Dmitry Medvedev, stood up from the politburo box and attempted to descend upon the pitch, but was stopped by Prime Minister Vladimir Putin, who scolded him for acting like he was in charge. Putin then went down to the pitch where he verbally assaulted the Russian striker Roman Pavluchenko for an uninspired performance and causing an embarrassment to the Russian people. Pavluchenko, a suspected steroid user, beat his chest and yelled in Russian, “I fight for me. I fight for me”. He then proceeded to score a meaningless goal in the 86th minute that Spain got back through Cesc Fabregas’ injury time header.

In the post-match interview, David Villa noted, “If I can do it, and you can do it, we all can do it”.


Sweden v. Greece recap:

Greece is the reigning champion of Europe after their surprising championship run in 2004, however, that does not mean that they are good.

Greece is playing with the same squad and the same awful defensive tactics from 2004. Back then, Greece played with 8 men behind the ball and would squeeze in a goal off a random corner kick. They tried the same tactics today against Sweden.

Sweden is an ageing team that somehow is still calling on Henrik Larsson (Helsinborg) and Freddy Ljungberg (West ham United – England) although they are both in the twilight of their careers.

The first half was an extreme contrast of footballing styles with Sweden attacking through Freddy Ljundberg, Zlatan Ibrahimovic (Inter Milan – Italy) and Henrik Larsson, while Greece played constant defense, never attempting to do anything on offense. Greece only brought players forward in numbers for corner kicks and free kicks. It was ugly.

Thankfully, Sweden broke through in the 67th minute with Ibrahimovic playing himself into space through a nice give and go, then blistering a far post laser past the Greek goalkeeper. Sweden went on to score a second just a few minutes later.

Hopefully this will put an end to this monstrosity of a team that somehow is the current European champion. Greece should forfeit the rest of their games out of embarrassment.

Somewhere Andy and Maria Avillo family are celebrating. And somewhere the Swedish Bikini Team is celebrating. And somewhere one Hotline member made money, and one did not.





Speaking of money: On to the odds and Buffet picks for June 11 and June 12:





June 11





Game 1: Czech Republic vs. Portugal

• Czech Republic snuck away with a 1 - 0 victory over Switzerland in their first game. Some may say that Switzerland had the better chances, but the Czechs were clearly playing on their heels because it was basically an away game in Switzerland. That won't be the case when the Czechs play Portugal.



• Portugal opened up group play against Turkey and smoked them. I made a funny. Cristiano Ronaldo and the other 3 unstoppable Portugal wingers seem to be on top form and Deco is controlling midfield.



• Portugal is highly favored (1.75) - bet $10 to win $7.50.



• The over/under is at 2.5 goals.



• Portugal is simply the better team. I expect high scoring a Portugal victory. The Hotline prediction is Portugal 3, Czech Republic 2 in a shootout. Take Portugal and the over.

Game 2: Switzerland v. Turkey

• Switzerland opened up play optimistically, but ended up losing the game and their best player in Alexander Frei. ouch. They do still have the Otter favorite Tranquilo Barnetta - from now on people with cool names will be on the "Otter watch" list. Tranquilo is the first.



• Turkey must have been surprised that they were actually playing in a major competition since they haven't been in one since they were semi-finalists at the 2002 World Cup. How could this happen? Well, they didn't qualify for either Euro 2004 or the 2006 World Cup. They looked out of rhythm against Portugal.



• I expect Switzerland and Turkey to play a tight match with neither team showing much attacking prowess.



• Switzerland is the slight favorite (because they are playing at home) and the over/under is once again at 2.5 goals.



• Take the tie (3.20) and the under. This is a money-maker. The Swiss are over-rated simply because they are playing at home. Keep in mind - and awful, and I mean awful American team went into Switzerland 2 months ago and beat a full strength Swiss squad 3-0.

June 12:

Game 1: Croatia v. Germany

• Croatia played the weakest team in the tournament, Austria, in its opening game. I was unaware how bad Austria was until I saw that match. Trinidad and Tobago could take them. Maybe even Rountree Juniors. Croatia won 1-0 on a 4th minute penalty kick. Don't expect more points out of Croatia in this game.



• Germany is simply a strong team. They are solid at every position. They don't have the flair of Portugal or the Netherlands, but they simply win games. Miroslav Klose and Michael Ballack once again are the leaders. Lucas Podolski (best young player at the 2006 World Cup) is also back and scored a brace in the opener.



• Germany is the heavy favorite (1.75). over/under at 2.5 goals. I expect Germany 2 - Croatia 0. Take Germany and the under.

Game 2: Austria v. Poland

• Let me just put it to you this way: I will not be watching this game live. Go watch "Sex in the City". Turn on "What Not To Wear". Do anything but watch this match. Dreadful.



• Austria is one of the host countries, but that doesn't change the fact that the only reason they are in this tournament is because of an automatic bid. They are undeserving. I think UEFA wanted to play games in Austria in the summer and figured it couldn't hurt to let the Austrian semi-pros kick the ball around for 3 games.



• Poland qualified for Euro 2008 easily, but for some reason when they get into the big tournaments they fall flat. They certainly did that in game 1 when they lost to Germany. Poland is better than Austria, but their finishing is not impressive. It's hard for me to think of how Poland or Austria will score a goal in this game.



• Poland is the slight favorite, but really who cares.



• Only bet on this game if you have a gambling problem. Austria 0 - Poland 0.



• Bet the tie (3.20) and the under (2.5 goals).

Leif out.