On the Third Day of Conference Tourneys...

The Buffet gave to me...

ARRRRRRch Madness, Tracking a Nor'Easter, and BU tried to make it 3 for 3.

Battling for Supremacy in the Mighty Mo'

The most cleverly named conference tournament in the land kicks off tonight with its first round match-ups, Bradley @ Drake & Illinois St @ Southern Illinois. It's not often you'll find the traditional MVC power Salukis playing on Thursday night of the conference tournament weekend, but here they are, playing for the right to play the top two seeds in the tournament on Friday night in St. Louis. So who are the 2011 MVC tourney contenders..

It took three years to adjust to the style of play, but finally the Bears have gone Cuonzo. After two decades of play in the MVC, as guys named Spencer Laurie, Blake Ahearn, Tyler Chaney, Tamarr Maclin came through Springfield, as they current hold 3 of the top 5 places in the record books of RPI ranking of teams not selected to join the Buffet (including a record #21 in 2006), the 2010 defending CIT champions, the Missouri State Bears have finally won their first regular season MVC championship - clinched last Saturday via a 69-64 home victory over 2nd place Wichita St. Now, with success comes peril - prior to 2008 when Drake ran the MVC table and last year when we all learned to spell Farokhmanesh! - the top seed in MVC usually meant Arch Madness failure (from 1999 to 2008, no top seed in the MVC tournament successfully won the tournament) ... but by that same token, no top seed in the MVC tournament has failed to make the NCAA tournament since 1993. No pressure Mo State. The Bears are one of the country's top offensive team, efficiency-wise (ranking in the top 50 in Effective FG%, Turnover%, 3Pt% and FT%), they may not score a lot, but in the time they have the ball, they are effective with it. Before we discuss the Bears MVC and Waiting Line chances, let's get our player learn on. The Bears are led by MVC POY Kyle Weems, the 6'6 Jr F averages 16.3 pts, 7 rebounds and 1.2 steals per game, he is backed up by undersized, but tough, Sr C, Will Creekmore (2nd team All-MVC)and his 12 pts and 6.5 rebounds per game -- JuCo transfer, Jermaine Mallett (2nd team All-MVC), the sharpshooter senior guard puts in 11.3 points and 5.6 boards, and strikes from 3 at a 42.7% clip. And finally, a kid the Buffet will miss -- former Eastern Kentucky standout (featured in the 2007 12 Days of Conference tourneys as a Buffet One to Watch for the soon-to-be OVC Conference Champion Colonels), who moved back to Missouri and gave up a starring role on a team so his KC-based family could have the opportunity to watch him play more often, may not show up on the stat sheet every day, but he's a crucial cog in that lineup. The Bears showed a bit of vulnerability on the road - losses @ Tulsa, Oklahoma St, Indiana St, Evansville and Valpo, they also only averaged 6.3 points in their 7 wins over the top 6 seeds in this weekend's tournament. They also are potentially bracketed against the one team who was able to walk in and get a win in the JQH Arena. In The Waiting Line... The Buffet has traditionally supported the MVC, and will bend over backwards to argue in their favor -- but really, no matter how you shake it, this really appears to be a one bid league. Only 2 top 50 wins (both in conference, against Wichita St), the 125th ranked schedule, and 3 losses from 100-150, even if they were all in conference. Road losses to other Waiting Line teams or fringe Waiting Line teams Oklahoma St, Valparaiso, & Tulsa ... they only have one more shot at a resume bldg win, and that would mean the won the MVC tournament, we're just not seeing it.

We're not feeling an at-large opportunity for the Shockers either -- a close loss to UConn in Hawaii and a bitter ref-controversial loss to VCU on Sweet-NonBCSSchools-Matchip Saturday notwithstanding, this team just hasn't built a resume and has a 200+ RPI loss on their ledger. But, what are is a solid road team (8-2), more highly valued by Ken Pomeroy, and one of the most balanced teams offensive- and defensive-efficiency wise(53.1 EffectiveFG%, 46th in the nation in Adj. Off Efficiency, and the 78th ranked defense in the country) . The Buffet likes their competitiveness -- 7 losses, by an average of 4.7 points (drops to 3 if you toss out a Dec 4 visit to San Diego St) means this team is always in the game, and when you're in the game you get the ball to sweet-shooting journal David Kyles (40.5% from 3pt range) or Ben Smith (42.5% from distance), and keep it close with All-MVC first teamer J.T. Durley and his 11.3 pts and 5.1 rebounds and All-MVC 2nd teamer Toure' Murry and his 9.7 pts, 5 rebs, 3.4 assists and 1.1 steals. This is a loaded team and the Buffet feels it very could be the MVC #1 Seed to the Tourney streak snapper. (translation: Wichita State has the athleticism, competitive fire, good late shooters and win on the road -- they are the Buffet's pick for Who Will Win)

Also a danger looming? Northern Iowa. Farokhmanesh is gone. Kwadzo (2011 Buffet All-Name Team nominee) is not. Ahelegbe, who raised his per game output by 4 points per game this year, enters his final Arch Madness seeking the elusive 3-peat (only 1993-95 So Illinois squads achieved this). But this is not the 2010 No Iowa Panthers, and losing 6 of 7 games to close the season bore that out. It started innocently, no shame in a blowout loss to Syracuse as they were finding their post-Ali footing. Then a close road loss at eventual Horizon League champion Wisconsin Milwaukee wasn't cause for panic but now we're 0-2 and suddenly last season's Sweet 16 run is light years away... wins over Iowa St and TCU helped right the ship a bit, but then a Dec 7 road game which featured 20% 3pt shooting, 18% 2nd half FG shooting, and their second sub-50 game of the season was the first red flag on this season's Panthers. But a great run in Las Vegas, winning the Las Vegas Classic with wins over Indiana & New Mexico, and maybe the season was turning around. But then MVC season started, they lost 3 of 4 and trouble resurfaced. Trouble that is, until they ran off an 8 game winning streak to pull to 9-3 in conference and 1 game back of then conference leader Wichita State. Then disaster truly struck, 2-time MVC sixth man of the year and the player cited by all teammates during last year's Sweet 16 run as the heart, soul and energy of the team, Lucas O'Rear (a pitcher drafted by the Cincinnati Reds in the 2010 MLB Amateur draft) broke his ankle and was sidelined for the season -- since then? UNI has lost 6 of 7, including an 8 point loss to their opening round MVC opponent, Creighton. The cupboard isn't bare, however. In addition to Ahelegbe (14 pts, 2.9 assists, 3.1 rebounds), the Panthers feature Anthony James, a sophomore guard averaging 12.6 pts and 3.3 rebounds, sophomore Jake Koch, who took a huge step forward with 9.8 points, 5.1 rebounds and 2 assists, and junior Johnny Moran, and his 9.6 points and 3.3 rebs. Also, this team takes care of the ball and is efficient on offense -- the problem is they are not the typical MVC lock down team, allowing 38% as a team from three, 49% from 2, and do not get in the way of many shots, near the NCAA bottom averaging a block on only 5% of the shots taken against them.

But UNI is just the 4 seed, the 3 seed? We'd like to welcome back to MVC relevance the Syc-Syc-Syc-Sycamores of Indiana State, who haven't finished above 5th in the MVC since winning the regular season title in 2000 and haven't made the tourney since the inaugural Buffet and Friends VBV trip back in 2001 (when they upset 4th seeded Oklahoma in the first round before getting blown by Gonzaga back in they day when they were still underrated and not grossly overrated). Kevin McKenna, Dana Altman's top assistant at Creighton for 10 years with a stint at Div II Nebraska-Omaha in the middle started a nice job rebuilding this program since David Moss led the Sycamore to an 8-0 start and wins over Butler and Indiana, got hurt and the program has been in a tailspin since. But then Oregon, Nike and very deep pockets convinced McKenna to resign midsummer, and take an assistant's job with Dana Altman in Eugene. Incredible. (Although, deeper investigation reveals that McKenna, a Creighton alum, had thought he was getting the Blue Jays job once his former boss left for Oregon, and as soon as he was passed up for the job in favor of Greg McDermott, probably didn't feel the same warmth and opportunity at ISU, which led to Greg Lansing's hiring) A deep team that features 7 guys scoring between 6-11 points, they are led by Juniors Dwayne Lathan (a Louisiana Tech transfer averaging 11.6 pts and 4.9 rebounds) and Carl Richard (10 pts, 6.8 rebounds) and feature the super exciting all-MVC Newcomer and Defensive team qualifier, redshirt freshman guard Jake Odum and his 9.1 pts, 4.1 assists, 3.9 rebounds and 1.7 steals. Looking ahead to the weekend, the bad luck for Indiana St is that they draw the league's 6th seed, Evansville -- and the Purple Aces have proved to be average (14-14 overall and 9-9 in conference) but capable (wins over Butler and Missouri St) and swept Indiana State this season (64-59 at Roberts Stadium in Evansville, and 66-63 at the Hulman Center in Terre Haute). They are a young team, but have 2 senior leaders in Jake Kelly and Aaron Carter and have a lot of length, but athleticism is not their strong suit. They wear you down and hope you underscore them (at 67 per game, they don't outscore anyone) and 12 out of 18 times, in MVC play, it worked.

The 5th seed this week is a perennial MVC powerhouse (well, up until 3 of the last 4 seasons - after the Nate Funk, Anthony Toliver, Dane Watts and Josh Dotzler NCAA tournament team was bounced by Nevada in OT in the first round) - the Creighton Blue Jays. Gone are those 4 vaunted Blue Jays -- but there's still a Korver (Kaleb) and lots of young talent (thank you Dana! Have fun in Eugene!): MVC Freshman of the Year Doug McDermott (son of head coach Doug McDermott - more on his great Iowa State bailout in a minute) and his 14.3 points and 7.6 rebounds (there was a lot of hoops talent in Ames last year - and none of it joined The Mayor at the local state school - who wasn't made coach until very late in the recruiting season (even if every Michigan State castoff seems to want to -- Chris Allen you remember Korie, don't you?),

Gregory Echenique, a 6'9 C from Venezuela and Rutgers transfer who averaged 10.2 pts and 5.7 rebs and retains 2 more years of eligibility as well as freshman guard Jahenns Manigat (All-Name Team Nominee) and junior Antoine Young (13.6 pts, 4.5 assists and 2.7 rebounds) and they are anchored by the man in the middle, senior from Oceanside, CA (bet he misses the beach right about now) averaging 8.9 pts and 5.5 rebounds. We do see them upending UNI, continuing the Panthers' MVC freefall to open the conference tournament.

Other MVC Players to Know (like a who's who of Buffet All-Name Team Nominees)

Andrew Warren, Bradley Sr G, conference leading scorer - 19 pts, 5.5 rebs, 1.7 steals

Colt Ryan, Evansville, Soph G, (nominee) - 15.8 pts, 2.3 assists, 3.3 rebs, 88% FT, 39.7% 3pt

Rayvonte Rice, Drake, Freshman G (nominee) - 13.8 pts, 4.8 rebs, 1.4 steals

Carlton Fay, So Illinois, Sr F - 13.3 pts, 4 rebs

Ryan Wedel, Drake, Sr G - 10.9 pt, 2.2 rebs, 2 assists

Mamadou Seck, So Illinois, Jr F - 10.7 pts, 8 rebs

Austin Hill, Illinois St, Sr. G - 10.5 pts, 2.5 rebs (rough shooting year, dropping from 34.5 to 27.5% from 3)

Dodie Dunson, Bradley, Sr G and Iowa St transfer (nominee) - 10.4 pts, 2.7 asts, 3.9 rebs, 1.1 steals

Dyricus Simms-Edwards, Bradley, Soph G (nominee) - 10.2 pts, 3.5 asts, 3 rebs

3/3 Missouri Valley First Round Scottrade Center (St Louis, Mo) :
7:00 pm - (9) Illinois State 54 (8) Southern Illinois 57
9:30 pm - (10) Bradley 63 (7) Drake 48

3/4 Missouri Valley Second Round:
12:05 pm - (1) Missouri State vs (8) Southern Illinois, Regional Fox Sports TV (Fox Sports Midwest/Indiana/KC/Comcast Chi)
2:35 pm - (4) No. Iowa vs (5) Creighton, Regional Sports TV (Fox Sports Midwest/Indiana/KC/Comcast Chi)

6:05 pm - (10) Bradley vs (2) Wichita St, Regional Sports TV (Fox Sports Midwest/Indiana/KC/Comcast Chi)

8:35 pm - (3) Indiana St vs (6) Evansville, Regional Sports TV

(Fox Sports Midwest/Indiana/KC/Comcast Chi)

3/5 Missouri Valley Semifinals:
1:35 pm - Missouri State/So Illinois winner vs No Iowa/Creighton, Region Sports TV (Fox Sports Midwest/Indiana/KC/Comcast Chi)

4:05 pm - Wichita St/Bradley winner vs. Indiana St/Evansville, Region Sports TV

(Fox Sports Midwest/Indiana/KC/Comcast Chi)

3/6 Missouri Valley Championship:
1:05 PM Championship game - CBS

Things You May Not Know: MVC Edition

Dodie Dunson, Bradley: The Iowa State transfer's brother, Brandon is a junior G at Arizona St.

The Two-Headed America East Monster

By virtue of its 10 game winning streak in conference and , the Catamounts of Vermont sewed up the 2011 regular season conference title on February 16th. Vermont is an evolution of a team, as its three leading contributors - Evan Fjeld, Brendan Bald (11.5 pts, 2.1 rebs) and Joey Accaoui (11.8 pts) were all members of last year's tournament qualifying squad, but all had smaller contributions (Fjeld the only returning double-digit scorer has upped his game from nearly 11 points to 15 ppg this season). They are into the undersized thing, as the 6'8 Fjeld (6.5) and the 6'6 Brian Voekel (9.9 - also 4.7 assists) do all of the rebounding work. Keep an eye on Voekel, a freshman forward who also happens to be #2 in the AmericaEast in assists, is a triple-double waiting to develop. But, what to make of the close to the season, a 15 point loss on Sweet-NonBCS-Schools-Matchup Saturday at the College of Charleston, followed up by an overtime loss to 2nd seeded Boston University at Patrick Gynamsium. What they can do is play defense -- limiting their opponents to just 31% from there and 42% from two, they do it through moving their feet and staying with their man (and playing in a poor shooting conference) because they have a very low steal/turnover rate on defense.

BU gave Vermont a run for its regular season conference title money this year, sweeping Vermont, including a thrilling 2 pt OT victory to close the regular season (which was without 3-time all-conference 1st teamer John Holland), but 4 conference road losses later, and the Terriers were sent to the #2 seed's chair. But they are RED HOT, 8 consecutive wins to close the regular season, perhaps a roster that features 1 senior (the aforementioned Holland) is finally coming into its own? Well, the statement swept over Vermont, to pull that without John Holland provides a psychological edge that the Buffet usually isn't into acknowledging. However, BU (who already overcame the loss of Jake O'Brien 15 games in -- inspirationally, he tried to come back against Albany, grabbing a rebound in a minute of play before giving into the pain) is not going to win this tourney without likely conference player of the year: JH. The senior G/F put up 19.2 points, 5.7 rebs - and really seemed to grow into the season, raising his shooting percentage 4% points after the injury to O'Brien. Darryl Partin, the Jr G from Seattle who transferred from LaSalle (just keeps trying to find colder places, what's wrong with Cameron Dollar?) finished the season averaging 14.9 pts and 3.4 rebounds, and especially looked the part after O'Brien's injury, upping his average to 17 per game, and leading the team with 23 points with Holland out in the season finale. The key to their entire puzzle could be D.J. Irving, the somewhat inconsistent freshman guard fro Chester, PA who closed the season on a nice run, putting up 18 pts and 4 assists in the finale filling in for Holland. It's been 9 years since BU has put on the America East crown, can John Holland get back in time to make it so again?

It's hard to talk up a 3 seed when they come into the tournament having lost 7 of 8 games. What we can say about them is they proved their chops with a 10 point win in State College against Penn State, a 14 points win in Burlington against Vermont -- but stories of team in-fighting, the apparent benching of key contributor Murphy Burnatowski may have finally caught up with this team. Led by a pair of outstanding upper classmen, Troy Barnies, senior forward averaging 14.3 pts and 7.7 rebounds, and Gerald McLemore, the junior guard, (AmEast POY in waiting perhaps?) and his 13.8 pts and 2.3 rebounds - the Black Bears can score -- from an America East perspective, that is -- as the leading scoring and FG% team, will it translate on the court and can they turn around the late season swoon.

The Great Danes of Albany -- have survived a 4 game losing streak in the mdidle of the conference, are suddenly the America East's resident meteor, having won 4 straight, 5 of 6 and 8 of 11 ... of course, not one of those squads are seeded above them this weekend in the America East tournament, but winning is winning and they have been. All America East star Tim Ambrose enter his final AmEast tourney, a tournament championship is about the only thing he hasn't been on the court to achieve at Albany (he was sitting out his redshirt year in 2007 when Jamar Wilson was scoring 19 per game and winning AmEast titles [side note: they got blown out as an overseeded 13 by #4 Virginia, remember when the Cavaliers were any good?]), he comes in averaging 16.4 pts, 5.2 rebounds, and 3.6 asts per game -- oh and don't leave the 42% 3pt shooter open. Ambrose's running mate as Albany court leader is Logan Aronhalt, the sophomore heir apparent to the Jamar-Ambrose throne, averaging 14.7 pts and 4.8 rebounds.

Who Will Win: If John Holland approximates healthiness, the Buffet sees the 2 seed rising up and pulling this one off.. if not, the Albany heat streak continues as Tim Ambrose.

Other teams of note: Stony Brook, a great story in 09-10, just couldn't replace the production of Muhammad El-Amin, Dallis Joyner and Desmon Adedeji (2010 Nominee?), especially when senior Chris Martin was plagued with a knee injury on and off all season, then they lost freshman guard Dave Coley to a knee injury -- there's just not enough man power left on this unfortunate M*A*S*H unit ...

3/3 America East First Round, Chase Family Arena (Hartford, CT) :
8:30 pm - (9) Binghamton 91 (8) Maryland-Baltimore County 85, 8:30 pm - americaeast.com (FREE)

3/5 America East Quarterfinals

12:05 pm - (4) U Albany vs (5) Stony Brook

2:15 pm - (9) Binghamton vs (1) Vermont

6:06 pm - (2) Boston U vs (7) New Hampshire

8:15 pm - (3) Maine vs (6) Hartford

3/6 America East Semifinals:

5:04 pm - Semifinal #1

7:34 pm - Semifinal #2

3/12 America East Championship:

12:00 pm - Championship at site of highest remaining seed - espn2

Blackbirds Singing in the Dead of March?

Deadlines. Early AM Spanish classes. The Buffet isn't immune to the realities of the world. Yes, you read all of those world correctly. Unfortunately, the NEC preview will have to come after publication of Day 3. It happens. You can request a refund if you'd like... but, programming note, the next round doesn't pick up until March 6.

3/3 Northeast Quarterfinals, all game held on campus sites at higher seeds:
7:00 pm - (8) St. Francis (PA) 75 (1) Long Island University 90
7:00 pm - (7) Mount St. Mary's 59 (2) Quinnipiac 78
7:00 pm - (6) Wagner 74 (3) Robert Morris 78
7:00 pm - (5) St. Francis (NY) 62 (4) Central Connecticut 64

3.6 Northeast Semifinals:
12:00 pm - (4) Central Connecticut at (1) Long Island University, MSG Network
2:00 pm - (3) Robert Morris at (2) Quinnipiac, FCS, ESPN3, ESPN FC

3/9 Northeast Championship:
7:00 pm - Championship game at higher seed, espn2